2/5 NL –
Hero – LAG known to bet draws heavily (850)
Villian 1 – Old experienced regular, lots of history with him. He is fairly solid break even player. Likes action, stakes mean nothing to life bankroll. (375)
Villian 2 – Middle age conservative, some history, experienced, ABC (490)


Hero 108 straddles to 10,
UTG+1 min raises to 20. 3 callers, Hero completes.
Flop ($100) 976
Hero bets 70, fold, fold, Old raises 200 , Conservative player on button calls 200.

I have LAG image, lots of history with Old, he probably has set or straight, sometimes two pair. Conservative probably has nut flush draw, with set or bottom straight possible. I expect him to 3 bet with nut straight.

570 pot. Old has $155 behind, Conservative has $270
$130 to call. Do I flat the raise and see if turn is a blank? Or shove now to get Conservative to fold?

Shove now. So many worse hands can call you, and your hand is too vulnerable to just call.

If I am up against set and a flush draw then I am only 39% chance to win.

If I shove $400 more, Old always calls 155, pot will be 1125 giving Conservative 4:1 to call with 2 cards to come.

You have to shove here. You're hand is very vulnerable, and you don't know what cards put villains ahead. If the board pairs, can you real fold? Alternatively, if a T or 5 or spade comes on the turn, if you're not behind it will kill your action. Even if you are in a worst case scenario against a flush draw and a set, shoving is +EV.

What hand would you rather have? No, it isn't better to flat and fold on apair/spade turn. You let them realise their equity for free. You cannot get it in as a lock every time. You cannot affect the cards to come or your chances of winning at showdown.

Sorry you lost, but this is a fistpump shove, nh, gg, and you know it.

A set and flush draw would be worst case scenario. They could be set over set. One could have a lower straight. Two pair is possible. Even with set and fd, it's +ev to shove. You're still most likely to win the pot. Even if you're only 39% to win, you'll be getting 2:1 on the additional money from the shove. If everyone puts the same amount of money in and you're most likely to win, you get Sklansky bucks. Plus, you might be much more than 39% to win. Shove now.

If you don't shove are you really going to fold if a spade comes or the board pairs for 155 into 600?

This is an easy shove.

lol, we have the nuts...

CLIFFNOTES: It is never ever ever wrong getting our money in when we have the nuts. No matter when, no matter the street, no matter the number of opponents!!!!!

Period!

However, with that being said, lets take a step back and think through this spot.

What range of hands do we assign our villain given the action?

The most probable hand in our villains' ranges are flush draws. Sets and 2p combos and pair+SD and pair + FD combos are also definitely in our villains ranges.

the question we need to ask ourselves in regard to shove now vs shove later is if there are cards that can kill our action? and if so, what is the likelihood of those cards coming. Another consideration is pot commitment, usually we will want to raise as early as possible with the nuts so we can build a pot that commits our villains to stacking off later or such that we can extract more value on later streets.

Dealing with the commitment reason first, since our villains put in half their stack, they are committed and thus will have to call the turn shove no matter what.

So now we are back to the first reason, scare cards. In this case, the scare cards apply to us

If turn is a spade are we folding?
If turn pairs the board are we folding?

The answer really lies in our confidence of either V having a flush or set...

Here is the problem with soul reads in this spot. The problem is that our villains have a RANGE of hands here and a spade on the turn doesn't automatically mean we lose nor does the board pairing automatically mean we lose. Our villains can have 85 here or pair + straight draw like 98 or 87... So what this means is we end up folding the best hand in spite of a spade hitting on the turn or the board pairing...

I know in our heart of hearts we feel we can soul read our villains for a flush draw but you would be amazed how often they show up in this spot without it. So now the mathematical question simply becomes, do they show up enough in spots like this without the flush draw for us to be mathematically incorrect in folding if a spade shows up?

ahhhhhh therein lies the rub.

If you were to do an EV calculation of this scenario and if you were 80% confident that V is on a flush draw and if a spade hits on the turn you fold, what you will discover is that overall you don't save that much money and in fact lose money long term.

You would have to be right like 90%+ of the time that V is on a flush draw so that you could fold this turn when a spade hits.

Then factor in the times you fold when the board pairs and V's are on some combo draw that you still beat...

The EV calculation starts to branch out geometrically in terms of % they have the have vs % of times you guess right vs % of times you guess wrong...

but when the dust clears, the end result is very simple.

WHen you have the nuts, the most optimal line you can take in spots like this when SPR < 2 is to just shove. No ifs ands or buts about it.

IN this spot, shove, and ride the variance train.

It is never ever EVER EVER EVER wrong to get all your money into the pot vs any number of villains when you have the nuts.

I did a model awhile ago of someone having AA preflop vs 1, 2, 3, 4.... villains to prove to everyone that +EV is +EV and if you get your money in while ahead that is the +EV line no matter what... see if I can't dig that thread up...

Here is the post

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/sh...0&postcount=36

if you look at the number in parentheses next to AA, that number is our equity. You will notice that even when our equity drops BELOW 50% that a decision can still be +EV and thus profitable...

Just because you are "possibly" squeezed between a flush draw and a set doesn't mean that getting your money in is a losing proposition.

And the truth of the matter is that you will often NOT be squeezed between those two hands. There will be times where you are up against a various combination of hands like FD + SD vs pair + SD vs overpair vs two pair vs bottom straight vs set vs pair + FD....

so when you add up all those possible combos your equity increases from 39% upwards to 65%

and even if it didn't, even if we are in the absolute worst case scenario of you being squeezed between a flush and a set...

it is still profitable for you to get all the money in on the flop

Calling is bad, you have the nuts and they are both interested, shovel it in. Two pair, sets, combo pair + straight draws and flush draws are all calling after putting their 200 in.

Easy shove.

PLO tho

But yeah dgi is right here. Variance is part of the game but too many action killing cards can mess up the best laid plans in this spot.

I'll take 39% worst case scenario 3-ways every single day. Get the $ in and fade all the outs.

this- just pile it in

ya sucks you probably lost
------ didnt read results when posting this btw

Thanks for all the responses guys.
Dgiharris,great feedback, I learn lots from your replies.

I shoved.

Grunch:

Put your boner away back into your pants.

Then ship.

It's a tell when you've got a raging hard on before you put all your money into the pot.

is this thread a joke?

shove

Seriously, raise. If one or both sucked out, that's unfortunate but you can't play profitable poker like that