$1/2 standard passive game, though tighter than normal.
V1 opens to $11, H ($325) calls from MP w/QdTd. I feel I have a skill advantage and am trying to play more hands when reasonable. V2 ($350) younger BG, calls from B.B. seems more rec than reg but really I don’t know him. I think he’s level 1.

Flop ($30)
8s9sJc
V1 checks, H leads $20, V2 calls, V1 folds

Turn ($69)
5d
V2 checks, H bets $61, V2 calls

River ($191)
Qs
V2 shoves for ~$250 or so. H? H goes into the tank, V2 says “give me $20 and Show you a card”.

Clearly the worst river card in the deck. I can only really think V2 has spades here, and is afraid i’ll check the river back with a straight but I don’t think he’s thinking at that level but who knows.

Thoughts?

the $20 comment while silly and amateurish does mean that he is somewhat of a thinking player.

When you throw him 4 red chips and he peels the K, are you sick to your stomach?

Pretty gross spot, but without more info on Villain I'm folding. KT also beats you and would absolutely make sense too. I feel like Villain wants a call, but does not realize how strong your hand is.

Fold unless you've seen V pull crazy bluffs like this before.

You're calling 250 for a chop at best and you have 90$ in the pot.

Grunch

With the speech I'm thinking V thinks he's very strong. That probably means nut-straight or a flush.

It's possible he mistakenly thinks he has tons of value with TX here but I'm fairly sure most people realise the 4-straight is very obvious so don't want to blow their opponents off a 1-pair/2pair/set.

I find it very hard to believe he's doing this with a set or worse himself.

So really the shove is very polarising; he has KT/spades or a bluff. His bluffs are likely AsXx.

Maybe he has AsTx? It's a bit of an unlikely EP open if game is playing tight and it's takes some crazy assumptions before V can turn it into a bluff. He'd be trying to get you off a chop, the nut-straight or a flush. Pretty adventurous so not very likely.

Maybe he has AsKx and is just one of those guys who like to call down with AK - but then he decides to turn it into a bluff on the river. Not super likely.

Obviously AsJx should bet the flop so that's mostly out.

I can't think of reasonable AsXx V opens in EP and takes this line with. Therefore I think we have to fold here.

pre is pretty meh from MP vs 5.5x open, best case scenario it's barely +EV wouldn't be surprised if it was neutral EV or slightly losing. i'd just muck it.

flop and turn are fine.

river i'd just fold, esp with his speech

I should have mentioned in the OP that V2 basically snap shoved the river. Not sure if that changes anything.

Sucks to flop the nuts and have to give it up, but yeah it's a fold.

At best we're chopping, and I don't think villain is capable of that river bluff.

So H tanked, did’t obviously give V2 $20 but I did say ‘if I gave you $20 you’re just going to show me the Ts’.

H mucked and V2 showed just the 10c. I figure now he had either JT or KT and felt the Q smashed him with no regard for what I’m holding. Who knows.

For sure overbet turn

It'd be rather ambitions to jam over pot with KT when the river completed spades.

Impossible to tell.

I have seen players bluff the flush in this kind of spot just to get their opponents off a chop. Thing is it has to be quite obvious they're chopping a good % of the time before they do it otherwise they're losing value of owning themselves against the nuts.

So if V is capable of this move (though he may well not be) I suppose the question here is how likely is it hero has a straight on the river?

It's a tight game so hero probably isn't expected to have lots of TXo, SC AXs and TT are more likely I guess.

Villain has at least one T if he's pulling this move and after the hand we know one is Tc.

With 9s 8s Jc 5d Qc on board hero has 2 combos each of T9s/98s/QTs and 3 of JTs/KTs/ATs plus 3 combos of TT. That's 15 combos of TX where 3 are the nut straight and 3 are flushes (JTss is straight flush).

So a thinking villain would be turning his non-flushing/non-nut-straightTX into a bluff against 9 combos of hero's bare TX while trying to avoid 6 combos of nut-straight or flush that definitely won't fold.

Of course his river overbet completely precludes you calling with tertiary strength or weaker (sets and weaker) so he loses all value.

So if he's a thinking player he isn't trying to move you off a chop because it's obviously too risky so he must have KT.

If he's not a thinking player then I suppose he can have TT or JT but if he goes mad overbetting those he also goes mad overbetting KT and flushes so you're probably correct to fold against his range here anyway.

turn.... bomb it for like 110. 76 gets there. and you still will get calls from draws and lesser hands.

river. I dunno. He is turning his chopped pot into bluff? I don't think I could call that. I would need to see some LAGtard play from the V before I could make that call.

This isn't even a close spot. Very easy fold on the river.

Even in more aggro games, people just don't bluff this spot, and he's not overbetting river with the Q high straight either.

I guarantee he has the flush at least 90% of the time here.

Personally, I'd 3bet to $40 pre, but as played, every street is good.

Okay so on this particular occasion, he had KT, which still beats you anyway. You ran into the bottom of his range.

No. When he shows the Kd, it becomes the easiest fold in the world, because you know he's got exactly KT.

It's like when someone jams river on a JJJT3 board and you sigh fold your AA, then villain flips over a Q and starts smirking at you, but doesn't show the other card... that means you made a good fold.

You sigh fold top full to possible quads? You're a better man than I.

I don’t have the overbet in my arsenal. Can you explain more please? When, against whom, etc???

Badreg could probably give much better in depth analysis on when pio overbets, but the one common theme I've borrowed is ob wet boards when I have a strong value hand specifically...most of the time ott.

So the detailed reasoning is you have tons of bluffs so you want larger sizing blah blah blah.

The real reasoning is because lots of times turn will be the last value street...especially on wet boards. This is bc on the river villain will either hit his draw and win, or miss his draw and fold. So when you bet $100 here ott you give him a real problem with his draws. You also get max value from them...he makes a huge mistake when he calls. If he folds, great. Winning w/o showdown is sick.

You also set up stacks easier for river stuffs.

Just dont get carried away. When i first learned about ob I did it like all the time, and then you really are missing value.

But times like this, where you know literally every river sucks and you almost hate betting at all... just ob

Appreciate the insight. I’ll find a spot or two to work that in. Is it only w/ value or are you ob’ing w/ draws or as bluffs as well? I suppose you have to in both cases.

It's worthing looking to bluff it in a spot where you block the nuts with a good draw so you don't have to worry as much about getting jammed on.

You can with bluffs but I keep it to high equity draws and spots where I know villain is capped. Like the reason ob is so cool is bc they still call a lot. So we don’t want to bluff a lot then.

Good tips on the overbet guys, thanks. I ought to use this more often than I do.

In your experience are opponents calling these overbets predominantly with draws and strong hands or more even mixture of draws, strong hands AND bluff catchers?

Obviously it's going to get highly villain dependent, just wondering if you've got any general lowstakes population read on what they call turn overbets with...