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Old 08-10-2018, 01:26 AM   #1
hamhamt
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Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

2\3 short stack live
Hero with 294
Iso 2 limpers one in utg and one is Mp1.
Hero raise in CO to 23 with ATdd

But calls, sb calls
3 way to the flop $75 in pot
Flop is 974dd
Sb checks
Hero cbet 50
But folds
Sb check raise to 150

Im getting roughly what 2.75-1 on a call for the turn.
I tank for and think because V overplays hands and is fishy. I figure V at least has a pair, but also has all straight draws, and 2p/sets..

As im thinking V says I have an over pair. When he says that I figure my A is live and I'm most likely not up against 2pair+. Based on this tell I elect to call.

So I call and turn pot is now 375 and I have around 100 and some change left and V blind shoves so I am basically getting odds/commited myself on the turn anyway.


So my question for you guys is, on the turn when you are calculating your odds should you just treat this as an all in and calculate odds that way? Because I am basically not able to fold any river given pot odds.

Also what is your opinion on calling the flop x/r? Getting a good price, I calculated I need around 26% equity and I have 9 FD outs + my A outs.

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Old 08-10-2018, 03:00 AM   #2
ChrisV
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Re: Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

You can do one of two things, either treat it as an all-in and calculate your equity after the river, or use the actual raise size and calculate your chance of hitting after just the turn is dealt. If you know you can't get away from your hand on the turn no matter what then you want the first option.

There's not really any need to go through calculations here because double-overcard flush draws are crushing hands against any player who isn't a total nit. For instance, if we give this player { 99,77,44,A9s,T8s,97s,86s,65s,A9o } (ie sets, top pair ace kicker, and any suited connector or one-gapper which makes a straight draw or two pair) then you have around 48.5% equity. I haven't included lower flush draws like QJdd but they will improve the situation further. Even in the worst case scenario where he has entirely sets you have about 26% equity. BTW, the backdoor straight chances your T provides are worth almost 1 more out.
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Old 08-10-2018, 06:59 AM   #3
hamhamt
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Re: Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

Thank you very thorough answer.

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Old 08-10-2018, 11:16 AM   #4
whatnow88
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Re: Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

Pre is fine but I would be tempted to limp and go multi way.

OTF our cbet size is to big. We accomplish the same thing at 1/2 and 1/3 with a small size. I would have made it $25.

With your sizing I would just fold OTF. He is going to commit us OTT with his speech play and aggression on the flop. We only have around %30 equity in a heads up pot. I would be folding here to raises unless we are deep.

In my opinion we need another V in the hand to make this playable or we need to make the bets smaller so it's profitable in the long run.

I'm open to change any and all of my plays based off math and common sense so i'm all ears on this one.

Last edited by whatnow88; 08-10-2018 at 11:25 AM.
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Old 08-10-2018, 11:24 AM   #5
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Re: Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

Quote:
Originally Posted by whatnow88 View Post
OTF our cbet size with top pair
???
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Old 08-10-2018, 11:25 AM   #6
whatnow88
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Re: Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

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Originally Posted by ChrisV View Post
???
my bad
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:12 PM   #7
hamhamt
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Re: Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

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Originally Posted by whatnow88 View Post
Pre is fine but I would be tempted to limp and go multi way.

OTF our cbet size is to big. We accomplish the same thing at 1/2 and 1/3 with a small size. I would have made it $25.

With your sizing I would just fold OTF. He is going to commit us OTT with his speech play and aggression on the flop. We only have around %30 equity in a heads up pot. I would be folding here to raises unless we are deep.

In my opinion we need another V in the hand to make this playable or we need to make the bets smaller so it's profitable in the long run.

I'm open to change any and all of my plays based off math and common sense so i'm all ears on this one.
Really bad advice

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Old 08-10-2018, 03:14 PM   #8
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Re: Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

I would just gii otf
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Old 08-10-2018, 03:16 PM   #9
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Re: Flop nut flush draw facing check raise but Hero getting odds on a call?

lol @ folding flop.

Even if they have top set, we have 26.5% equity (additional equity due to the running straight potential). So yeah, short of being shown a set, we should either pile the rest in or call. Doesn't really matter.
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