$1/3NL
Hero and 2 other players join table in progress from broken game, I have $1,300. Table for the most part is straddling $6 OTB, almost everyone is about 300 BB deep as it's late and the only table.

Villain 1 - $1,600
30, white, I've played with him a handful of times he's above average/competent and aggressive. He also likes to tilt people with table talk, get people to gun for him, etc. You can kind of tell that the rest of the players are annoyed with him.

Villain 2 - $1,500
25, black, never played with before. Wearing a "Blingy" type shirt that says Hustler or something, backwards hat.

Hero - $1,400 straddles $6 OTB

A few people call the $6, and Villain 1 raises to $36 I call with J9
BB, who is the only remote short stack at the table ships for $95, Villain 2 limp-calls, and Villain 1 tanks for like 90 seconds and flats. I call as well, closing the action.

K64 ($385)

Villain 2, who I have zero reads on, who I've never seen, and can only deduct that he wants to hurt/felt Villain 1 decides to just open-shove the flop for $1,400

Villain 1 says "Call...."[like obviously, call...] like 1.5 seconds after the all-in

Hero?
My live poker buddies had different opinions.

Fold

A2, A3, A5, A7, A8, A10, AQ, Q10, Q8

There's like 9 realistic combos that would out flush me.

Call. You've flopped the 3rd nuts in a straddled pot with an SPR of 3.4x and are likely up against a combination of smaller flushes, sets and AX hands. Folding is simply not an option.

I would've folded preflop. but if I got to this point for some reason, there's not a chance in hell Im foldng now.

Don't like calling for 6 Straddles the first time around unless you have a good shot at successfully floating V1, which doesn't sound true at all from the description of V1 and the fact it's bound to go multi-way.

Don't like the 2nd call much better. Yeah, we're closing the action, but V1 has a big hand and the main pot is protected. What's the plan?

OTF, if V1 has AsQs it's a cooler. But his range looks like AA, KK, AsKx AsQx, QsQx, KxQs, so it's a call, as he often has a helpful blocker for V2's range and V2 should have all sorts of suited cards in his range and the sets and possibly a dry ace as well.

I suppose V1 could have more dry aces and the other sets as well. I don't see how this remotely looks like a fold at all though. Which Villain are we putting a nutted range?

Ya, I'll be honest this is a **** situation being 475bb's deep.

Against a range of: AcAs,AdAs,AhAs,KK,66,44,AsQs,AsTs,As8s,As7s,As5s,A s3s,QsTs,8s7s,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh,AsQc,AsQd,AsQh, it's a coin flip

Against two ranges of that we're at about 31% equity. You need 29% equity to call. So really just boils down to what you know about the other two players. I guess im being a nit and going towards the folding side. If someone says "well you cant call and then fold when you flop the 3rd nuts" This is of course totally true, when we are 100bb's deep heads up. nearly 500 bb's deep and two players have open shoved and called an open shove ahead of us it's def not a "of course call" situation. If we consider that they both either have made flushes, sets, AsKo or something like that we are actually behind both of them (with 31.7%/34.1%/34.1% respectively.

I would say a call is ok, a fold is ok and it's really close. If you're ok with dropping 500 bb's and the variance when you're either dead or a close race between your made flush, a set looking to boat up and a AsKx type of hand (because honestly thats kind of the best you have going for you when you get it in) then i dont hate a call. I'd take a while to think, fold and never tell them what I had.

V1's snap call of ~460 bbs is more than a little concerning. Prolly folding tbh

Honestly the more I think about it I would expect if you called to be looking at exactly V2 with a set or MAYBE a small flush (you're ahead about 90% of the time against him) and that V1 has the nuts.

Reasoning for V2: He limp calls $95 preflop. I don't see many AsXs doing this preflop, especially with AK, AJ blocked. Also if he flopped the nuts would he just overshove like 3.5x pot? I would much more weight this towards a hand like a set or maybe even some freaky 64s that flopped big in what they see as a big pot who doesn't want to see another spade. With the flop call by V1 you can discount AQs from V2's range quite a bit because V1 is much more likely to have raised AQs compared to V2.

Reasoning for V1: Snapping off 400bb's with a player still to act behind is super strong. With the fact that I think V2 has a set here a lot that highly discounts hands like 66, 44 and I think KK would have 4! pre when he realizes that:

A) there is probably a looser poor player to his left
B) that player just flatted 30bb's pre so probably wont be getting away from the hand pre-flop
C) there is another player still to act behind him and i doubt he wants to go 3 ways to the flop 400+bb's deep out of position to a competent player

So i think 66,44 and KK are highly, highly discounted so that leaves like AQs or maybe like AsKx.

TLDR; V2 most likely has a set/64, V1 most likely has AQs. Fold.

This is a call for me. I'm just never folding a flopped flush with an SPR of about 3.5:1, especially facing a shove (which wouldn't make a ton of sense with the flopped nuts) and having two of the better spades (the K on the board and J in our hand) accounted for. This would be a bit harder if it was all low spades and we held low spades, such as holding 87ss on a 234sss flop as we wouldn't have any blockers to the good spades.

V2 almost always has exactly 66, 44 or maybe 64s. Why? because V1 snap calls (almost always a flush), we have a flush and that makes him ALSO having a smaller flush super unlikely. So ok, we are ahead of V2.

Now that we have that set with V2 that helps with V1. V1 is highly unlikely to have 66 or 44 (64s is unlikely due to it being a competent player and the action preflop). He also snap calls 400+bb's with another player behind. He isnt nearly getting odds to draw to a flush with AX and I think a competent player would fold or tank call after taking a few seconds to count the pot (bad but maybe) if he has a lone As. So we can put him pretty squarely on a flush. The question is what flush? Lets set up a range for him given the action preflop (raise and call 3!)


We and the board block:
AK, AJ, KQ, QJ, JT, 98, 97, 76, 65, 9T, KT

So what flushes could he have?
AQ, QT

Honestly there might be one more he might have but i cant figure it out. I'd say 80%+ of the time Hero is drawing dead and against a whole range of them both having any kind of made hand like 2pr+ the call is break-even.

Fold.


Edit: also I guess V2 could have some weird smaller flush, which would make the odds of V1 having a smaller flush go down. More of a fold

Agree with this.

Why?

Sent from my Pixel using Tapatalk

Because I would fold preflop, but if I got this far with the 3rd nuts, I'm calling. BTW, I thought MikeStarr explained it pretty well, but I hope this helps you understand.

I would also fold pre, but I don't think "I have this hand" is necessarily sufficient in a 1,500 bb pot. Also, MikeStarr didn't really explain why other than "there's no way im folding now"

OK. I guess I understood from MikeStarr why he wasn't folding, but I've read a lot of his posts.

1,500 bb pot makes it more reason to call with the 3rd nuts, especially since I think we are ahead here often enough for this to be +EV.

V2 could easily have a smaller flush, set, etc., and V1 could have a set, flush draw w/ As, etc.

Seriously, if you are going to call pre with this hand and hit the 3rd nuts, you have to gii with this SPR against these players.

What exactly are we ahead of combo wise from V1? Not trying to argue I honestly just don't agree and if someone can point of something im missing im totally fine with that.

Sorry, see above.

Do you think V1 is ever folding AsKx, AsAx, AsQx, (really any AsXx) or a set to V2?

Do you think V1 snap calls 400bb's with a player behind with KK or a naked As?

Absolutely. I would.

Depends in part on how wide V1 is raising pre, but sets, AsKx, 8s7s, 7s5s, Ts8s, maybe 75 with a spade, AsAx,

75 with a spade simply isn't an option given the action pre-flop. Do we really think he snap calls 400bb's with AsKx, AsAx? The only flushes I could see him having are AQ, QT, 87 or T8 (I dont think 75 calls given the action pre).

If we give V1 credit for all possible flushes and V2 credit for a set or even 64, we have 34% equity and need 37.8% equity to call. If we take even one of 78s or T8 out of V2's range our equity plummets to 23% and its a terrible call.

I think the likelihood of V raising AQ or QT is higher than T8 and with the fact that V2 COULD (unlikely but a possibility) have a smaller flush since he didnt raise preflop so if he does have a flush its almost exactly blockers to T8 or 78 makes this at best a realllllly close call and probably a fold.

Edit: I re-did the pokerstove and added in AsTs. So now its a fold regardless even if he has all possible flushes (27% equity)

IMO: fold pre if you don't have a plan for the hand. Based on the fact you've played with V1 and have him pegged as an above average and competent player makes the snap call for an over shove for $1400 throw red flags everywhere. There was zero thought required on his part. He's turning over exactly the nuts. He could care less about what you do behind with another 1400 because he's already in a good spot to profit 500BBs.

fold 100% here, have a plan for the hand next time when you raise your straddle with J9 suited and get a ton of action including a 3-bet squeeze shove and two calls ahead of you.