1/2, 9 handed

Villain is a 55 yr old woman. She limps a lot and makes massive overbets pre with big pairs (like 35 over limps). Shell occassionally do this as a bluff. She hates being outdrawn post flop too and will overbet pot often to prevent this.

3 limps
Hero limps otb with K6 ($400)
Sb calls
Villain in Bb checks ($155)

Flop:$12
KT8

Villain leads out 25 Shortstack goes all in for $30. Hero?

Villains range here is probably KJ and better. Doesnt have Kk or TT but has everything else. Highly likely villain will shove turn. Hero?

What parts of her range will she fold if you shove now?

You have 45.5% equity against a range of 88,KJs+,T8s,AKo,KJo+,T8o. I assume she raises AKs pre. Probably AKo most of the time too, yes? In which case she maybe only has a couple of combos of it, though this only changes our equity a tiny bit.

The issue is that if we flat, our equity goes way down on a blank turn, and given that it's a dry sidepot, we may not get the rest of her stack if the flush hits. Better to get it in now, imo, especially if she will fold some better Ks.

I know she limps AK sometimes, not sure if she ever raises with it but probably. I agree that a shove is probly best on the flop, while if i somehow had AK a call must be better

Shove flop

What's best if we know shes never folding to a shove otf, and we know shes shoving turn? Seems like calling flop and folding flop are pretty close

If we knew she shoves turn even if a diamond comes, flatting becomes correct. We would have to have seen her do that with just top pair several times in the past to make that assumption, though.

Sorry, she probably shoves when a diamond doesnt come, and maybe 33% she shoves if it does come, and this would be when she has 2pair +. So we're usually not getting paid.

Let's look at this as though it were HU and see what we see. Obv, this is complicated by not knowing shorty's equity in the main pot though. Do we have a range estimate for him?

The EV of folding is always zero. Let's look at our other options, given your assumptions of never folding and shoving all turns.

If she is never folding to a shove, and we have 45.5% equity, then if shorty weren't in this is a +EV shove to realize our equity. She has $128 left. So you put in $158, which will be 44.8% of a $353 pot. This is obv +EV, but by how much? 45.5% of the time, we will win $195 (88.73) and 54.5% we will lose $158 ($86.11) for an overall EV of $2.62. How does this compare to calling?

If we call and face a shove on a blank turn, we'll have to fold, as our equity against her drops down to 28.48%, and we will be facing a bet of $128 into $97, meaning that even if shorty has no equity, we still are paying way too much by putting 36.3% of the total pot in.

On the other hand, we have 9 outs to the flush, which gives us 94.9% equity and 3 outs to two pair that give us 78.8%, and 2 outs to trip Ks, that give us 38.6%.

So if we call flop, 72% of the time we will be folding, thus losing our $30 flop call. EV = -$21.60
~18% of the time, we will GII with the flush. When that happens, we win $195 94.9% of the time (185.05) and lose $158 5.1% of the time (-8.05) for an EV of (.18*177)=$31.84
~6% of the time we GII with 2-pair, winning $195 78.8% (153.66) of the time and losing $158 21.2% of the time (-33.50) for an EV of .06*120.16=$7.21
~4% of the time we will have trip Ks and will end up having the odds to call (since our $30 is already in the pot) even though it is overall -EV when we count flop and turn together. .04*(.386*195)-(.614*158)=.04*(75.27-97.01)=.04*-21.74= -$0.87.

Adding it all up (and still ignoring shorty) the EV of calling is $16.58. Clearly better (given our assumptions) than shoving.

This is a good exercise, but doesn't really answer the question, as 1) The assumptions are suspect (one assumes she folds at least some weaker Ks with no diamond to a shove, and that she doesn't shove in to a dry sidepot when the flush comes) and 2) it doesn't account for shorty's unknown equity in the main.

Preflop: I fold. Because I don't want to get into predicaments like this.

As played: Tough spot, you say you need to hit either a 6 or your flush to win. I would base my decision on whether you could get all of Vs stack if you hit your flush.

Will V give up if the 3rd diamond comes on the turn?

easiest call ever?

^ Yea this.

V1 get mubsy once you call, and will probably check with all of her top pair hands on the turn, letting you see a free river. We are getting direct odds on the flop to draw to our flush, and we will occasionally make the best hand with a 6 or backdoor straight which we can extract value from on the turn/river.

What part of this: leads you to believe this: ?

Thanks for the good work here. I'll have to dive into this later this week.

No offense to OP, but I trust my read a lot more than his.

If we call, the pot will be close to $100. Do we really expect an old lady to fire $100 with top pair in a limped pot against two opponents? I've literally, never seen this happen.

The only way old lady bets on turn is with KT+. At the same token, she seems bad enough to call a decent sized bet on the turn or river with top pair, especially if a disguised 6 hits, so we have huge IMPLIED odds against V.

Folding flop would seriously be bad. AINEC. Jamming wouldn't be terrible to isolate the short-stack, but it's a risk we don't really need to take against a terrible opponent who overvalues top pair. Let's just call with great odds and crush V when we make our hand and she donk calls us when we get there.

Folding K6s OTB behind limps is leaving an enormous amount of money on the table. Being in position with a playable hand at SSLNL is basically the greatest thing ever. You're not in any kind of "predicament" here, this is a fine spot.

Shoving flop isn't horrible but calling seems better.

The turn was a 6. Villain shoves all in on turn with top pair (KJ) and I snap it off. Villain binks J on river anyway and takes it down.

seems like a thin call. when a short stack is betting 2x pot, chasing is never gonna be a slam dunk, so can't really agree with the "easiest call ever" stuff.

And this is why real reads are >>>>> stereotypes. Stereotypes are a good way to get a default read on an unknown V, but there are exceptions to every rule, and you need to really observe your Vs and not just get lazy/determined that a stereotype will rule the day.

I've seen nitty guys in hoodies and LAGtard OMCs. Sure, they are one in a couple of dozen, so when I see an OMC, I'm still going to assume that he's a nit until proven otherwise, but we have to keep an open mind and an observant eye.

So, what did the shorty show down?