$2/5 full table. Hero sat down one orbit ago. Very few reads on the table

Hero: I have only played one hand. I got AK on the button and 3! pre. One unknown villain covered me and called with eff. 100 BB. Villain check-called on a J-high disconnected flop. He bet into me on a blank turn and I folded.

V1: He overlimped twice then check-folded the flop. Seems tight, but no solid reads on him.

V2: Typical calling station. He has limp-called every hand and folded on the flop or turn.

OTTH

V1 (SB): $425
V2 (UTG+1): $400
Hero (CO): covers

V2 and irrelevant V limp. I open with AT for $30. V1 and V2 call.

Flop ($100): AJT
SB bets $30, V2 calls, Hero raises to $200, SB shoves, V2 folds, Hero?

This is probably a low stress strat thread. I'm curious if this is an auto call for almost 4:1 odds or can I dump top/bottom two pair assuming villain almost always has top two+?

16% equity vs. AA/JJ/TT, KQ, AJs/ATs
30% equity vs. AA/JJ/TT, KQ, AJ/AT/JT
40% equity vs. AA/JJ/TT, KQ, AK-AT/JT

Why did you raise to $200?

Raise size is too big. Pot-Sized-Raise is way too big if your raising all your two-pairs for value. Make it like $130 to go, and fold to a ship.

You have created a situation where you now have pot odds to call vs all but the tightest shoving range. Like the others suggest, the flop raise is a mistake.

OK you are readless effectively but V1 in SB seems tight and donks into you on a board that smashes a preflop raiser's range but offers few good draws.

Villain either has a weak to moderate hand looking to "control the pot" OOP or he has a monster looking to get raised. Given V1 calls preflop in the SB after a stationy player limped in suggests he has a pocket pair that's to small to 3bet or a good AXS or suited connector that's too nice to turn into a bluff preflop and end up heads up OOP vs a station.

So my range for V1 after he donks the flop is: Q9s 99 T8s T9s QTs KTs QJs KJs A9s-A2s AQs JTs ATs AJs JJ TT KQs.

Then the suspected station calls. His range is AX JX TX KX QX QQ-22

So hero's flop raise can get value from the station but probably just isolates hero against a stronger range against the SB. Tricky spot TBH. I think either a small flop raise or a flop call can work but the big flop raise is a mistake.

If you flat the flop you get another street of info on both players. If they both check you know they are weak and you can milk them for whatever you think they'll pay. If betting gets crazy on the turn you can make a well informed decision about your hand. If you're still unsure on turn you can call another normal sized bet and see the river and gather more information.

Yes you are hoping to avoid a K, Q or 8 on turn so calling isn't without danger both from being out drawn and from a four straight freezing your action. That's only happening on 25% of turns so it's not disastrous to call.

I'm happy to call or make a mini raise to $100. That's not so much that weak hands won't call (particularly the station and it's cheap enough for you to get away comfortably if SB ships.


If hero raises small ($100)
Pot is $260 after hero raise to $100 so SB has to put in 70/260=27% of current pot but has a less than 10% chance of hitting a gutshot on the turn. Even an OESD with Q9s only has a 20% chance of hitting turn. Even adding in possible trips and 2pair outs V is at best break even on any call.

Yeah. Good point

I think a larger raise makes more sense on a board like Q-T-7 with two suits. I agree the board looks draw heavy, but really isn't.

Your sizing has committed >50% of effective stack, so I think you have to call it off.

Hope he had AK/AQ.

Live reads aside, I might flat the flop. You essentially have one street of value (2x$30) if ahead. If behind, and you could be, the pot size is controlled. Call and eval turn.

You kinda left yourself in a pickle by raising so much. You only need ~21% equity to call and you already worked out that there is a solid chance you have it, especially because JT is definitely in his range

As everyone else has pointed out, your flop raise is way too big