Game is 1/2 NL but plays very deep with players allowed to buy 70% of the big stack. Effective stacks here are $800, I have villain covered.

Straddle on to $4, I raise to $16 in HJ with KQ, Villain in CO snap-calls and BB calls too. Villain is tight-aggressive and very solid. No major reads on BB.

Flop: AKJ (Pot: $53)
BB checks, I bet $35, CO calls, BB folds.

Turn: AKJ T (Pot: $123)
I check, Villain bets $75, I raise to $200, Villain thinks for 30 seconds and calls.

River: Turn: AKJ T J (Pot: $523, villain still has $550 behind)
Hero ????

Thoughts on all streets appreciated, especially possible scenarios on the river.

Check and evaluate. He will likely blast the pot and you will have to fold. A solid player will raise a blocker with 100% of his range here so throw that thought out.

One twisted thought that keeps running through my head is to open shove the river as a bluff. I think he would have a hard time calling with jacks full or a straight. Lets forget I mentioned that and never speak of it again though.

Preflop and flop is fine. Going for a check/raise on turn is OK if you think villain bets here when you check most of the time, but you didn't check raise enough. Villain needs to call $125 to win a pot just short of $400. Getting better to 3:1 and having implied odds on river he is going to call with anything that might draw out on you. The check/raise should be $300 here and I would shove some of the time. Mostly I would lead turn, probably for $100 because there all kinds of ways villain can be drawing against you.

River is one of the worst cards for you. The board paired, but the flush didn't come in and it would be very easy to be chopping with QJ/AQ/QT type hands so your not going to want to give up easily here. I would check/evaluate and see what villain does. Stack sizes help you slightly here, villain's remaining stack means any significant bet pot commits him so he is likely to check anything you beat and sometimes check chops. I would lean fold to a big bet for exactly that reason.

Check flop.

Raise turn bigger.

Check/eval river.

Wow ... sick river. V either has a straight too or made the FH.

Definitely makes sense that my turn raise wasn't big enough... any set is still going to call there and probably 2-pair as well. But a set actually seems very unlikely since he didn't 3-bet me preflop, so I guess I'm just worried about AJ/KJ/TJ.

I should have mentioned that my image is relatively tight in general, so villain probably puts me on a straight on turn yet still called.

A straight is pretty likely for Villain, too, but is there any way I can represent a boat here? Given my check-raise on the turn, probably not... so I guess I am stuck checking river and praying he doesn't blast it.

I'm not a fan of the flop bet unless you're getting called wide and/or taking down with many bluff barrels. You do have 4 "clean" outs (which you hit on turn), 6 "dirty" outs with the K (small chance villain has KJ/QT), and 10 more outs in club turn cards (good thing the A is there so you don't bluff into TP+Club draws).

As played, I'd raise bigger on turn. You're playing $800 deep. Villain "only" has to call $125 more into a pot of 275 to see a river (a bit over 2 to 1 immediate), and he is getting, $125 / 550 (4.4 to 1) implied odds on the money. Something to like $300 would be best. Also, I do not understand why you checked. Is it for him to bluff at this board, because you guys have history? If so, Why not weak-lead turn for like $50-70 to induce a raise from him and then you can shove over the top.

River is a pretty sick card. I would imagine that any bet from you on the river is going to get a fold from worse (i.e. As5s), and a shove/call by better. Unless you have a history of playing spade draws like this.. I would just check/call river.


Edit: Just read your response. It's very unlikely for you to represent a boat here (AJ/AA/KK/TT/JJ) since I feel that you'd either block bet turn or check/call turn. Check/raising turn would be very unusual for a set.

If you don't chop and you're discounting sets, he's either way ahead like you said ... AJ/KJ/TJ or way behind. AK/A10/K10, but a 2p combo on a board like that speaks too weak for a very solid V. So does a missed flush draw. The 30 sec pause and call on the turn was interesting.

Raise the turn bigger.
He's (almost) never bluffing the turn here.
And if he is, he's folding to a raise of any size.
So, his calling/folding range is pretty much 100% inelastic with respect to sizing.

So, I'd raise to $300 or so (pot sized) which sets usu p for a nice river jam that's hard to fold to.

As played, bet/fold for $200.