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 Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

12-07-2014, 08:08 PM   #26
au4all
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Join Date: Apr 2011
Posts: 2,872

Quote:
 Originally Posted by DK Barrel You're not having that spot for literally every hand you ever play though. And hopefully you do have disposable income (Meaning your poker bankroll is not all the money you will ever have free and if it runs out you can never play poker again) So yes it would skew your st.dev upwards a little bit but not to the point where you need a 200BI bankroll. That's crazy.
Why is it crazy? Is it because you have a mathematical justification for your belief or is it because you don't feel like it should be true?

I think it's sort of odd for you to base your "proof" on your random assertion that your bankroll is not really your bankroll because it's possible you might have more money some day.

I'm not really sure that you understand what the word "variance" means. If you're all-in where you're 85% to win or all-in when you're 15% to win your variance is the same.

Does the world know: That both people in a zero-sum bet have the same variance? If you give me ten dollars 100% of the time neither one of us has any variance; our outcome is certain -- it does not vary.

 12-08-2014, 02:01 PM #27 ThaNEWPr0fess0r old hand   Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 1,831 Re: Flipping vs. Bad Players What is all this "yeah, I'll take an 80/20 coin flip... Duh..." stuff that i'm reading. A coin flip is a coin flip (I'm assuming that we are talking about ranges here and not individual hands). So when you say, yeah I'll take a coin flip... because I might even be an 4:1 favorite! That's nonsense, you are looking at one small piece of the puzzle and ignoring the other piece where the fish actually has aces (yeah, fish get dealt aces too...) and you have 77 and call his all-in. I would be happy to take small +EV spots against fish because If I don't stack them now, someone else will. So i'm definitely taking +EV spots against them if I can. Others have also mentioned, that If he's got 400BB and you can only rebut 100, then that sucks and should be taken into consideration.
 12-08-2014, 03:21 PM #28 AsianNit banned     Join Date: Sep 2012 Posts: 9,887 Re: Flipping vs. Bad Players I don't really worry about someone worse than me stacking a fish because I have a decent chance of getting it anyway. I worry if the fish is going to dump his money off to someone who plays better than me or to a lockbox from whom it is going to be very difficult to win anything other than a small pot.
 12-08-2014, 03:51 PM #29 trucdouf veteran     Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,215 Re: Flipping vs. Bad Players Personally I don't like flipping with the fish. It's not a bad strategy, and definitely has its merits. For me, I just am not capable of losing a coinflip I could have avoided and seeing fish stacking my chips feeling like the man. Instant monkeytilt. I prefer staying with my A game and exploiting them postflop whenever possible. (If they are willing to flip, they are also more likely to call down small-medium bets with drawing and dominated hands.) I will however adjust and go for thinner value vs someone who enjoys flipping. Just my two cents. Edit: Also Lady Variance is not one I like to count on for stacks.
 12-08-2014, 05:01 PM #30 spikeraw22 The Situation     Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: SB is the new BTN Posts: 8,693 Re: Flipping vs. Bad Players Let's change the question. Would you flip for stacks with a nit? Say, you face a 3bet from a nit. His 3betting range is QQ+ exclusively and you hold KK. You both have 100BB. Let's say for the sake of argument that no post flop advantage exists so calling will be 0 EV. Do you 4bet get it in with him if he's calling 100%? You're probably not going to get another shot at his entire stack because he rarely plays, and the table fish has 100BB. What if the table fish had 200BB?
 12-08-2014, 07:59 PM #31 AintNoLimit See my coaching listing     Join Date: Apr 2010 Location: las vegas Posts: 6,402 Re: Flipping vs. Bad Players Youre forgetting the times you win the flip, he gets deep off another player and you play deep with him now. There is usually dead money involved also that hyou give up if u dont take the flip.
12-09-2014, 06:42 AM   #32
DK Barrel
Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: no gamble, no future
Posts: 6,798

Quote:
 Originally Posted by au4all Why is it crazy? Is it because you have a mathematical justification for your belief or is it because you don't feel like it should be true? I think it's sort of odd for you to base your "proof" on your random assertion that your bankroll is not really your bankroll because it's possible you might have more money some day. I'm not really sure that you understand what the word "variance" means. If you're all-in where you're 85% to win or all-in when you're 15% to win your variance is the same. Does the world know: That both people in a zero-sum bet have the same variance? If you give me ten dollars 100% of the time neither one of us has any variance; our outcome is certain -- it does not vary.
It's crazy because if everyone stuck to that belief then live poker would be dead. How many people in your poker room do you really think have 20+ BIs completely segregated from their life funds?

I believe it's foolish to require a "real bankroll" to play live poker. The reason for that is because even at the lowest level, the amount of money required to be properly rolled is substantial, and yet the play is generally quite bad and the games easily beatable. If you want to play live poker you must be willing to gamble. If someone has a positive expectation but a 25% ROR I think they'd be foolish not to play, assuming that's money they can afford to lose. If losing at poker would cripple them, they should not play poker.

I do understand the literal definition of variance, but that's irrelevant for poker. The only thing that matters is ROR.

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