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Flipping for stacks? Flipping for stacks?

09-13-2018 , 10:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
You probably want the psychology forum, then. This is a strategy forum, and post #3 nails the strat answer.
This. 100% psychology prob and the answer will likely be different for everyone (due to varying pain thresholds). I don't even know what my answer is as some of it will depend upon how I feel at the moment (which I know is irrational, but we aren't robots so...).
Flipping for stacks? Quote
09-13-2018 , 10:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KT_Purple
A lot. This is actually pretty important. We actually know the cards in this example, but our calling range will change based on the position of the initial raise due to card removal. In fact, card removal defines our opening and calling ranges, but perhaps that should be another thread

Answer to the original question: if you are using a Kelley criterion bankroll then OF COURSE you take a flip! The Kelley criterion is defined by coin flips
This is ONLY true if we have seen the rest of the table routinely call with Ax and Kx the whole night. If not, then all the other Aces and Kings could be gone.
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09-13-2018 , 12:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrChesspain
I assume that this is the rational, "risk of ruin" analysis.
.
Yes. The idea of the Kelley criterion is that the risk of ruin is small enough that you will statistically double your roll more often than you bust, which is a counterintuitive result. The problem is that a Kelley BR for a break even player is 50 BIs, which means if you play 5/10 you need 50k
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09-13-2018 , 01:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImAllInNow
I always interpreted it as the maximum bet that allows for an acceptable risk of ruin. Any larger and risk of ruin is too large.
A perfect Kelly Bettor has no risk of ruin. The Kelly Criterion assumes the set of bet sizes we can choose from is continuous. You're always betting a fraction of your bankroll, never all of it. In practice the set of bet sizes we can choose from is discrete, so we can only approximate Kelly. This is where risk of ruin come from.

Wizard of Odds explains Kelly and isn't too technical. The site is great for many other gambling questions, also:

https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/kelly-criterion/

Quote:
Originally Posted by KT_Purple
Yes. The idea of the Kelley criterion is that the risk of ruin is small enough that you will statistically double your roll more often than you bust, which is a counterintuitive result. The problem is that a Kelley BR for a break even player is 50 BIs, which means if you play 5/10 you need 50k
The Kelly Criterion would tell a player with no edge not to bet. I've no idea where you got these numbers.
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09-13-2018 , 05:44 PM
Not necessarily true. If we constantly adjust our bet size based on our bankroll we will eventually always win because our risk of ruin approaches zero and at some point we will theoretically always be in the black. In this sense Kelley can be seen as a reverse martingale. It's a surprising and counterintuitive result. A Kelley with an infinite br is a martingale
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09-13-2018 , 07:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by KT_Purple
Not necessarily true. If we constantly adjust our bet size based on our bankroll we will eventually always win because our risk of ruin approaches zero and at some point we will theoretically always be in the black. In this sense Kelley can be seen as a reverse martingale. It's a surprising and counterintuitive result. A Kelley with an infinite br is a martingale
I’m confused about what you’re saying. What would Kelly say to bet playing a breakeven game?

Kelly maximizes the rate of bankroll growth. It doesn’t make sense to me that Kelly could recommend any bet size for betting strategies wtih 0 expected bankroll growth. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say Kelly “doesn’t care” whether you bet at 0 EV?

I can at least say that the Kelly bet size approaches zero as the edge approaches zero from the right.

Not talking about Kelly anymore, repeatedly betting any fraction of a finite bankroll at no edge leads to expected decline in the median bankroll. As the number of bets approaches infinity, the expected median bankroll approaches 0. Under the assumption that money has decreasing marginal utility, placing any sized net with neutral EV has negative utility.
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09-13-2018 , 11:18 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
This is ONLY true if we have seen the rest of the table routinely call with Ax and Kx the whole night. If not, then all the other Aces and Kings could be gone.
They could be but it's less likely than random. How much less likely of course depends but as long as they are somewhat more likely to vpip w an ace th ere is an effect on the avg remaining composition of the deck.
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09-13-2018 , 11:22 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by onguard
They could be but it's less likely than random. How much less likely of course depends but as long as they are somewhat more likely to vpip w an ace th ere is an effect on the avg remaining composition of the deck.
If we're really going to look at this, don't we also have to consider whether the fact it's the last hand would make someone more or less likely to play a hand like A6o?
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09-17-2018 , 09:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrChesspain
If we're really going to look at this, don't we also have to consider whether the fact it's the last hand would make someone more or less likely to play a hand like A6o?
Kind of but this'd prob include some non ace hands that normally get vpipd too, right?

As long as there's a positive correlation between having an ace and putting money in ppl not putting money in increases the likelihood the deck is rich in aces.
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