Villain in this hand is same villain from this HH

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...s-lag-1608417/

$2/$5

Villain ($400) limps UTG. Another limper ($200). Hero ($650) raise to $25 with KsTc OTB.
SB ($500) and both limpers call.

Flop ($100) KdTs4s. SB checks, UTG leads out $75. MP limper folds to me. SB folds out of turn so I know its going heads up.

Ive played enough with villain to know that he will lead $30-$40 or so with a draw here. He has a made hand. Knowing that, what do you think about the merits of flat calling for the purpose of making him fire a huge turn bet to get ME off of a draw?

Obviously Im never folding this hand. If a spade comes it will be a major scare card for him but it will only happen about once in 5 times. If a spade doesn't come on the turn he is probably going to push all in.

If I raise the flop he "might" fold KQ/KJ. I know this is FPS but Id like thoughts anyway and also thoughts in general about flat calling a bet to induce a large turn bet when you know you are ahead and want to make villain think you are drawing so that he will pound the turn with weaker holdings assuming you are drawing.

If I take your read as a given that he has a made hand here, I think calling is fine. Given stack size and position, you can get it in on later streets without raising flop. Given that he limped UTG, he has a lot of weak made hands here, especially Tx. Would he limp a random K UTG? He'll also show up with 44 here sometimes, but if he flopped bottom set I'm getting stacked against a LAG.

I'm putting a lot of faith in your read that he never has a draw here though. An UTG limping range would have a lot of suited spades and QJ in it. If he can have a draw we need to be prepared to raise here or shove turn.

Idk his limp UTG range, but he might lead 44 and prob Kx and I'll take your word that he doesn't have many draws, but even if he does I'm still flatting, because I think raising folds out too much of his range that we're beating (unless he views us as bluffy) and the pot will already be big enough to get stacks in OTT especially if he leads again.

I don't think calling is FPS. Stacks will easily go in by the river. I see no reason to risk worse folding when you expect him to bet again on the turn. I'd flat the flop and plan to shove all turns.

Agree. Calling is fine against this V with your read. (That's why we have reads.)

Thanks for posting this... I think my normal reaction on this hand would have been to auto-raise - in order to charge the draws. I can see the value in having a reliable sizing tell.
I suppose, even without the read, you could argue for calling once (my experience is that donk leads with draws OTF don't often get dissuaded with a raise).

I would raise for value, especially given his bet size and your read that he has a made hand. Lots of cards can come OTT that can kill your action like a spade or Ace, and if paint comes you'll worry you might have been overtaken.

Plus maybe this time he has a combo draw or his made hand is an oddly played AK. He won't go anywhere if you raise flop.

I find that donk bets of this size tend to be good hands that won't fold. He likes his hand. Make him put in more money.

That's my main question. If a spade comes it could kill my action, but do you think in general that a person with a made hand (and not necessarily a monster hand) will pound away on the turn trying to protect from me hitting the flush, when they otherwise would slow down if there were no draws?

Another hypothetical example would be a guy raises preflop with AQ, he bets a Kxx board that has a flush draw or a 963 board with a FD. He gets a caller. Will he be more likely to double barrel just because there's a FD that hes hoping he can fold out with a big bet when he otherwise may have check / folded?

I tend to flat call in hands like this when Im very confidant Im ahead hoping that he will double barrel because of the FD and I'm not sure thats correct or not.

Grunch

Don't think it's FPS since you have a read and a rationale for making a play.

You're not deep, so you should be able to get all the money's in by the river.

Only problem is obv when the FD hits, but whatevs, it won't hit more than it will

I lean towards this as well. Villain has all ready put in 25% of his stack, we don't need to go crazy trapping here. He might call an all-in bet right now.

Again, this goes back to my question. We know he "might" call an all in, but he also might fold a weakish K. So is he more likely to shovel it in himself if I let him think hes ahead and that Im drawing?

Results:

I called his $75 flop bet.
Turn was a 6s. Not a great card obviously. The board is now KdTs4s6s and he checked. I bet $150 and he check raised all in. I called of course and he had AhKh.

Based on his hand and how he played the turn, Im sure I could've gotten him all in on the flop, but I still wonder about that situation in general.

Good bet, good call. I still don't see the point in shoving the flop when you're sure he bets all turns.

Well, he didnt bet all turns, but I get your point. He wasnt afraid to get all in on all turns.

The question was more of a general question against the avg player (not this exact player) using this hand as an example. I still havent gotten an answer. Is it profitable to flat call with a made hand that you are confidant is ahead on a drawy board, hoping the drawy board will make the villain fire away on the turn with a mediocre hand or total bluff because he thinks you are drawing? Or is it better to just raise before a scare card comes?

I think that given you were willing to get it in on a spade turn, you played it fine given your read. If you were folding in this spot when a scare card comes, you need to raise flop. Well played.

This seems way too fact-dependent to be answerable on a general basis. Factors to consider:

1. Does V double barrel a lot? If so, more inclined to flat and let him continue barreling.
2. How deep are we? Can we get stacks in easily if we flat?
3. Do we have position? Flatting is much better with position.
4. How many players in the pot? More inclined to raise multi-way.