Say I have four to a flush after the flop.

As you know the odds of hitting the flush are 3.5 to 1 from the Turn. But that's if it goes all the way to the River. 18 outs. Should I figure each street as a 9 to 1 shot at hitting my Flush? 5 to 1? Or should I look at it as if I'm going to get 18 outs? 9 on the Turn and 9 on the River?


Second question; The Villain has four to the Flush after the Flop; is it ever okay to give him the right pot odds to chase his flush? (The reason I ask is if he hits the flush on the turn I've only wasted a smallish bet 1/3 of the pot, or so, instead of making a pot size bet trying to push him out. My current play has been to bet the pot and make him pay, punish him, for every street he keeps chasing, but I'm wondering if there are any other opinions on this?

Last question: Does anyone recommend running two turns, two rivers, when you are pretty sure, or know (all-in) that the Villain is on a Flush draw? I've seen a lot of people do this saying they are protecting themselves from losing it all, but it seems to me to be defeating the purpose and strategy of making the Villain pay for chasing when he has the worst of the odds?

Thanks, JL

In no limit you have to look at it as 9 on the turn and 9 on the river. This is because there are times when a big bet will force you out on the turn or you will hit on the turn and your considering villain's odds of drawing out against you on the river.

As for your second question, no with one exception. If you bet small and give villain odds when they are chasing a flush they will make more then they lose in the long run. The one exception is when you are chasing the nut flush yourself and want to setup a good pot size for shoving/bluffing later in the hand.

The reality is more complex because you can't be 100% sure villain is on the flush draw. If you are constantly betting big because you are afraid of the flush you become vulnerable to opponents slow playing made hands. Sometimes betting small is best because a flush isn't your biggest concern.

Q1. 9outs per one street. It is most because you have to pay again to see river card. So compute odds using bet and pot size and 9 outs. The only exception is AI otf then we count 9x2 outs because we see all cards for given price.

Q2. No reason to bet small with value hand. And remember we are not betting to make him fold draws, we are betting to get value.

Q3. Run it twice does not change EV. It slightly decreases variance as it increases sample.

Yes you figure each street unless you are facing an all in on the flop or if the amount left behind will be small. But If there is a reasonable amount of money behind on the turn and you expect a turn bet you have to consider that.

So you are often between 18-20% and need better than 4:1 direct odds. Since flush draws are obvious, you may not be able to count on implied odds. Obv combo draws may carry greater equity.

When you have the made hand and villain is drawing, In general if you figure to be a favorite you profit most by getting more money in the pot while an equity favorite and you want to do it on streets where villain can give action.

So if villain is 4:1 dog ott you want to lay him as much over 4:1 as he will call. The larger the amount he calls the bigger his mistake and the more you profit. If you in fact know he has a FD and you a made hand and you bet less than what is required to deny him proper drawing odds then you are offering him an overlay... That is better than 1:1 on his money for the pot.

Although the above poster is correct that the focus should be getting villain to call with bad odds thus generating "value" there is in fact "value" when villain surrenders his equity. Take for example a player who refuses to call with less than correct drawing odds. It is still more profitable to bet and let him fold than to bet less than what would deny him correct odds.

But I'm guessing your point about trying to lose the minimum is likely not limited to drawing situations and is more fundamental. Say villain share of the pot is 38% going all the way to the river. For every additional $1 you put in the pot and he matches by calling your share is $1.24 and his is $0.76.

So there is the concept of betting an amount to deny villain correct drawing odds but then there is just the concept of extracting max value when an equity favorite. This applies whether villain is "drawing" or not.

Generally losing the minimum when an equity favorite shouldn't be the goal. There may be special circumstances where pot control is appropriate or a street is checked for deception but in straight forward spots where you are fairly certain to be an equity favorite you want to build the pot for the times you win which out number the times you lose.

One last thing is that it's important to understand redraws and back door equities. A NFD for example may win by making top pair while a 2p or esp a set may redraw to a full house. So using an equity calculator away from the tables may be more helpful than just counting outs.

All of the above is based on knowing that villain is drawing. As mentioned by a previous poster we don't know that. Just because a flush draw is possible doesn't mean that's what villain has. So we are frequently betting to get value from villains entire range. Again an equity calculator will help practicing your bet sizings.

Thank you all very much. That stuff has been bothering me. Especially the "whether to count the Turn and the River together, or 4 to 1 on both streets."