Quote:
Originally Posted by thetruewheel
Let's look at the combos on the flop. Say V calls the 3bet with: AKo-AQo, AKs-AQs, QQ-TT and 4bets AA,KK.
AKo: 3 combos
AKs: 1 combo
AQo: 6 combos
AQs: 2 combos
QQ: 6 combos
JJ: 3 combos
TT: 3 combos (1 once we get to the turn)
You beat 10 combos and are crushed by 14 on the flop. The turn removes 2 combos of TT, now you're beat by 12. The problem here is we block so many combos of hands we want to value bet against (AK). I changed my mind, I don't mind checking the flop. I still think we should call the turn - if V has AK he's much more likely to put in his stack if we call turn / ship river after he checks. If V leads river we probably should fold.
Thats basically a better analysis of what I said, but I think he has even more hands in his range. Lots of people raise with any 2 suited broadway cards and hate to fold to a 3bet. He could easily have a lot 2 pair hands on the flop as well.
If hes tight and you get action after this flop, you are crushed. If hes loose and still called a 3 bet, and then gives you action post flop, you are behind his range although it would be closer to 50/50 against his whole range if you got all in.