So here was my thought process facing the turn raise. I don't give this guy credit more than just a few overpairs give he limp-called preflop. I definitely think he is coming in for a raise with any pair 99+. Occasionally he'll turn over pocket 5s here but I think he plays the majority of those as just calls on the river. Same reasoning for the 1 combo of quads.

So what other hands can he have here? He can definitely have some twos in his range with hands like A2 suited and maybe a few combos of K2 suited or some low suited connecter hands like 23 suited or 24 suited. But there are only 2 combos of A2suited out there, and I'm not giving him credit for every combo of K2, 32, or 42, suited.

How many 9x hands does he have here? Coming into the turn I think he has a decent number when you account for ~8 combos of 9Xss, plus I think he can occasionally float me with a few random hands even without spades. basically I think he'll float me where with some fraction of all of his hands that completely whiffed, since he is last to act on the flop and everyone else has folded and he has position on me, he may call my small-ish flop bet intending to bet if I check turn. HOWEVER, once he raises my turn bet, I think his # of nines shrinks drastically. If he floated me with, say, A9 or T9, he's almost certainly just calling as I have lots of better hands in my range and it's very hard for him to get called by worse.

flush draws? This is weird because I fully expect him to raise the flop with most of his flush draws. However, given the pure # of flush draw combos he could have called preflop with, there's still a significant amount of flush draws in his range here even if he raises 75% of the time. So I definitely have to say there are some flush draws in his range.

Lastly, let's just call it an "other" category. Given my read of villain he definitely has some significant component of just random hands here that he's making a play with. Hard to say exactly how many, but given how few combos of everything else I think there are, it doesn't have to be very many in order to constitute a significant chunk of his range.

Not gonna go through the exact math/combinatorics, but in sum I think his range is weighted heavily enough towards flush draws + random hands that I can justify getting it in. But since given that I can't improve easily on the river, that I'm OOP, and that I don't really know which cards I need to dodge, I think jamming here > calling. Occasionally we're gonna get snap-called and be drawing basically dead, but that's poker.

So I jammed for about 700 more and here's what happened.