5/5 NL

Hero in MP with AAdx ($465)
Folds to hero and raises to $25
Villain in LP calls ($600ish)
SB calls

Flop:
QJ6dxx

SB checks
Hero bets $65
Villain tank raises to $200
SB folds
Hero???

The villain is an Asian woman who has been playing super slow. Chatting it up with people at the table, players are getting annoyed by how long she takes for each action, doesn't seem very knowledgeable of the game. She just recently sat down and I have seen her call light with middle and third pairs on large bets from other opponents.

I block AQ, and she usually makes very large rasies pre with pairs and premiums so I can eliminate QQ and JJ. Given this player type is this ever a fold?

All in. Expect to run into QJ a bunch. I’m not folding though.

I wouldn't discount JJ or QQ since these player types are usually passive players, and if she is, we can find a fold to the c/r. I don't think it's an insta-stack-off spot vs a weak passive player. You cbet 65 into 75 and she put in a big raise - she sounds like she might fall into the thinking category of "I have big hand. I make big bet".

Tough spot, but I'm probably going broke here based on the read you gave on her. There's a chance we're running into QQ/JJ/QJ, but if she has been calling light on large bets with mid pairs, there's too much of a chance that she's deciding to get the money in rather than calling big bets.

Worst case, you're against one of those 3 hands and your aces are still live. Best case, it's AQ or something like a weird open ender.

Seems like every hand posted these days is AA getting raised on the flop. These are simple range math problems you can put into propokertools.

In my head she's got 9 combos of QJ, 6 combos of 66, that's 15 beating you. Then she's got 6 combos of AQ, 12 combos of KQ, 8 suited straight draws. That's 18 made hands that you beat and 8 draws. These spots are never pretty but if there's any chance she's raising worse you have to go with it one way or another.

When V raises hero’s nearly pot-sized bet, she’s heavily weighted towards nutted hands imo. Seems nitty but I’d sigh fold.

Yeah if she's never raising worse then it's a clear fold. I tend to overfold these situations as well but against some players you have to take a stand with your overpairs.

Shove.

sorta a tough spot, I wouldn't eliminate QQ/JJ entirely from her range, wouldn't discount all KK either.

Because we're blocking AQ, this leads me towards weighing her range more towards 66, and QJ, KK, KQ than AQ, or some random KT or T9.

range w/o KK, AQ
(Equity, Win, Tie)
Player 1: 54.24% 54.24% 0% [AhAd]
Player 2: 45.76% 45.76% 0% {66, QdQs, QdQc, JhJs, JdJs, KQs, KQo}

Board: [Qh Jc 6d ? ?]
Deal To: River

Our equity is adjusted based on how many combos of QQ/JJ you wanna leave in (each combo is about 2% equity added or subtracted)


Range with KK
Player 1: 62.82% 62.82% 0% [AhAd]
Player 2: 37.18% 37.18% 0% {KK, 66, QdQs, QdQc, JhJs, JdJs, KQs, KQo}

Board: [Qh Jc 6d ? ?]


range with all AQ combos but no KK combos
Player 1: 62.80% 62.61% 0.385% [AhAd]
Player 2: 37.20% 37.00% 0.385% {66, QdQs, QdQc, JhJs, JdJs, AQs, KQs, AQo, KQo}

Board: [Qh Jc 6d ? ?]



this is close especially us not knowing what this V tendencies are when she's taking aggressive action. Just becuase she called light earlier, doesn't mean she's willing/capable of betting light.

But, at this level I've also seen V over value their hands alot so it's very possible that she can be doing this with Qx. Furthermore, having committed more than 90 of our 465 starting stack (about 20%) it's hard for me to fold an over pair in this spot.

I'd shove and live with the results.

3 combos of 66 post flop and she wouldn't play all of her AQ/KQ/draws this way. Assigning 24 combos that we're ahead of is a little optimistic. I'd probaby weigh out at least half of her entire range we're ahead of on the flop.