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Old 02-13-2021, 02:53 PM   #1
sabloid
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Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

8 players - Blinds $5/5

UTG+1 - Hero [A♥︎A♣︎]

A failry passive table that generaly loves to limp and see a flop. Not a lot of 3-bet going on.

Preflop (Pot size: 0)
SB posts small blind $5
BB posts big blind $5
UTG calls $5
Hero bets $30
MP folds
HJ calls $30
CO folds
BTN calls $30
SB calls $25
BB folds
UTG calls $25

Flop (Pot size: 155) [7♠︎5♠︎2♣︎]
SB checks
UTG checks
Hero bets $100
HJ folds
BTN folds
SB raises $300
UTG folds
Hero ?

With so many players in the hand and a faily wet flop, I opted for a big bet. I generally opt for bet/fold. Villain, middle aged Asian man, in SB had a big stack when I joined the table. He lost a big hand with set over set when he opted for a big shove on the river with his JJ on a KGJXX board and opponent had KK. He went on bit of a tilt and started opening T90. But otherwise he mostly limps and when he does raise it is likely with a strong hand. In the few hands he has been invovled in he underplays and shoves the river with nutted hands. In 3 hands he made all of his stack back and more with full house over full house and quads over full house. So he is not on tilt anymore. He has made some weak calls on the river and lost about 3-4 hands with likely weak top pairs.

Should Hero call here or just make an exploitative fold?˜
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Old 02-13-2021, 03:08 PM   #2
sdfsgf
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

What are the stack sizes?

I notice that our largeish raise (6 BB) got five callers. Are we happy with this outcome? We're almost always going to get put in this exact spot with an SPR of 2-4 and can't really fold an overpair. But going six ways to the flop we're going to be beat very often. Assuming getting five callers isn't a totally unexpected outcome at your table, this seems like a slam dunk limp-reraise.

As played on the flop, I don't know, I hope you won, but I try to avoid this situation as much as possible.
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Old 02-13-2021, 03:17 PM   #3
LarryGrill
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Seems like an easy flop call for a non-tilted semi competent opponent with a set. Why blow you off the obvious overpair? That leaves 2 pair, straight draws, flush draws and maybe something like A7 protects against AK if he still has that in your range. Sets are possible and he could always choose to fast play if he thinks you will stack off with an over pair. I see no reason to raise and would evaluate the turn but likely not folding unless we are incredibly deep.

Last edited by LarryGrill; 02-13-2021 at 03:19 PM. Reason: Spelling
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Old 02-13-2021, 08:07 PM   #4
sabloid
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Sorry. Effective stack size preflop was $1000
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Old 02-13-2021, 08:56 PM   #5
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

i too would like to know the best move for this type of scenario as ive (most people here) have been in similar spots

id put him on 30% having a set/two pair, 30% A,K high flush draw, and 40% overpair 99s-KK. just a guess
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Old 02-14-2021, 09:22 AM   #6
samo
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

If we can find 4-5 semi-bluffs in his X/R range, call and evaluate turn, folding unimproved to further pressure.
Some potential semis: A4s/A3s/A2s/64s/spade draws.

Theoretically, he shouldn't have QQ+ in this configuration with so much dead $ on pre-flop calls. Unless, he is the type of player that always puts the opponent on AK, JJ- likely calling flop.
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Old 02-14-2021, 11:39 PM   #7
sabloid
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

I definitely wasn't thinking of a raise. I was looking to call or fold. The semi-bluffs are maybe possible. I wasn't sure he was the type who would raise flops with semi-bluffs. My general feeling with live play is to fold. But do you all think that with his huge stack size ($3000) he might be opting to gamble here? Is that a general live tell?
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Old 02-14-2021, 11:59 PM   #8
sixsevenoff
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

I would call, especially with the read that he's usually waiting until the river to show aggression with super nutted hands. This could be a worse overpair that doesn't know what to do. FWIW I would go $50 otf.
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Old 02-15-2021, 01:41 AM   #9
mr. degen
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Think you can rule out overpairs. Guy probably doesn’t put you on AK either with your sizing. Think it’s a fold but its close. I would try to get a live read to help me decide.
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Old 02-15-2021, 10:14 AM   #10
sixsevenoff
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Quote:
Originally Posted by mr. degen View Post
Think you can rule out overpairs. Guy probably doesn’t put you on AK either with your sizing. Think it’s a fold but its close. I would try to get a live read to help me decide.
Why can we rule out overpairs?
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Old 02-15-2021, 12:42 PM   #11
Vecissitude
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

It's close but I am leaning fold. You are basically hoping he is doing this with AQ, AK of spades and overpairs like TT or JJ. My gut says is he knows you are tight, he knows you have a good hand and he wants to stack you with a set or two pair. It should be impossible for you to have a set here so your hand is faceup here as either overpair or AK.

If you think he continues to barell off with his bluffs I would say let him have it, if you think he is often not capable of barelling off his bluffs you could call one street.

The main issue is you opening EP and having two people in late position call you. If this happens often you need to put a stop to that and start openng bigger until you get more heads up pots.
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Old 02-15-2021, 03:03 PM   #12
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Quote:
Originally Posted by Vecissitude View Post
It's close but I am leaning fold. You are basically hoping he is doing this with AQ, AK of spades and overpairs like TT or JJ. My gut says is he knows you are tight, he knows you have a good hand and he wants to stack you with a set or two pair. It should be impossible for you to have a set here so your hand is faceup here as either overpair or AK.

If you think he continues to barell off with his bluffs I would say let him have it, if you think he is often not capable of barelling off his bluffs you could call one street.

The main issue is you opening EP and having two people in late position call you. If this happens often you need to put a stop to that and start openng bigger until you get more heads up pots.
he made it 6x after a limp. Please don´t act like that´s a problem.

I know some people will argue for a limp/raise or an absurd open to make the hand easier to play, but avoiding somewhat tough decisions is not the way to maximize your ev.

In your other paragraph you argue you would fold against someone who is capable of barreling off but call against someone who shuts it down; I get that you don´t want to face bets you are uncomfortable with due to bet size, but this is flawed and also not the way to think.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
11,880 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 752
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhAd14.39% 1,7100
77,55,22, 7h5h, 7c5c, 7d5d85.61% 10,1700


if he plays every pp and combo of 75suited which is probably not true.
however, this is not a range.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
23,760 trials (Exhaustive)
board: 752
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AhAd51.89% 12,3300
77,55,22, 7h5h, 7c5c, 7d5d, JJ, TT48.11% 11,4300

that doesnt even include flush draws and spazz. Play around a little bit and you are over 60% quite rapidly.

folding here is highly exploitable; if we fold AA without the A, we fold every hand besides AK/AQ/AJ. To make such an extreme deviation from standard play, we need some pretty extreme and accurate reads.

1) villain seems to slowplay his nutted hands.
2) villain seems to be at least a little bit of a buttonclicker
3) villain seems to be passive pre, overpairs are in his range imo.
4) he´s not tilting anymore and seems to be somewhat tight which is bad, but that´s not enough to really concern me.

I wouldnt call either since a lot of turns would either kill your hand or your action and from my experience most live fish are pretty incapable of folding valuehands a once they raise.

he might easily have overpairs and flushdraws in his range. We are not that deep, calling commits us anyway. Just shove.
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Old 02-15-2021, 06:29 PM   #13
Vecissitude
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Quote:
Originally Posted by sauhund View Post
he made it 6x after a limp. Please don´t act like that´s a problem.
Multiway pots are the death of poker, I did not say a 6x is a problem, I said there were two cold calls from late position which is a problem. If that is a regular occurance you for sure need to raise bigger and limit the multi way pots. Multiway pots are easier to play by the way, since you need to win fewer of them you can fold more wheares in headsup you need to make sure you are defending appropriately.

Your analasys is fine and dandy and all, but I think you forgot to take into account that this is a check-raise on an EP player that is C-betting in a rather big pot multi-way when out of position on two people. My opinion is that this spot is incredibly underbluffed and a typical villain is not going to check raise all available bluffs here and best case scenerio he will only pick the very best ones.

What I can tell you for sure is that shoving flop is by far the worst option. When facing this raise best case scenerio is he is bluffing, shoving gets him to fold his bluffs. By calling he might check turn and fire river again and you could decide to try and bluff catch. Or maybe another spade comes and he puts on the brakes with his sets allowing you to get to showdown with a decent hand. Shoving here is pure suicide.
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Old 02-16-2021, 03:13 AM   #14
sabloid
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Lot of valuable advice here. On one hand, a player who usually waits till river to raise nutted hands should make this a call. And on the other hand, I thought maybe he knows I am not betting light here and so wanted to get value. I wasn't sure what to do and I folded. And yeah this is highly exploited and folding too much. Not that I would do this for every player.

He shows us QQ. Made me sick.
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Old 02-16-2021, 07:59 AM   #15
Vecissitude
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Quote:
Originally Posted by sabloid View Post
Lot of valuable advice here. On one hand, a player who usually waits till river to raise nutted hands should make this a call. And on the other hand, I thought maybe he knows I am not betting light here and so wanted to get value. I wasn't sure what to do and I folded. And yeah this is highly exploited and folding too much. Not that I would do this for every player.

He shows us QQ. Made me sick.
So basically he was hopping to put the brakes on your bets and make sure you did not bet 3 streets as he had a hand he wanted to get to showdown. He was likely afraid that you would keep blasting him with AK and any flush draws. With QQ it's likely he checks the turn.

It's ok it's not like you can get get them all right. I hope you did not show him what you had you really don't want people knowing you folded AA.

At any rate maybe next time you want to bet a bit smaller in that spot when it's impossible for you to have nutted hands like sets and 2 pairs. That would allow you to keep going with the hand a little easier.
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Old 02-16-2021, 01:24 PM   #16
sabloid
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

^Thanks. I never show my hand.

But with so many players aren't we giving them good odds by betting small on whatever drawing hand they have?
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Old 02-16-2021, 04:19 PM   #17
sauhund
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

once again we made a great deviation from standard play against a button-clicking live player who was overplaying a hand, who knew...

I think if it was a 1/1 game and you had 200 in front of you, you´d never fold.
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Old 02-16-2021, 06:17 PM   #18
sabloid
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

With 100bb, I would never fold and yes, I would call in a 1/1 game. I didn't feel like calling 200 more and giving up on a turn bet. But I think, as Veci, pointed out he would have checked turn and I would know my hand was good.
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Old 02-17-2021, 09:39 AM   #19
samo
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Re: Facing a raise on the flop with Aces

Would have been interesting to see what V would have done OTT if Hero would've called flop raise.

There was $105 of dead money in the pot when he called pre-flop. Difficult to foresee QQ taking this line.
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