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Old 08-05-2013, 06:35 AM   #1
eldiesel
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Facing massive turn overbet

1/2

Villain is waiting for a seat at the 2/5 game, seems to know a couple of things, if he doesn't, his aggression at least gets him by.

Both of us have about $440.

A few limpers (including V), I make it $15 with KQo in LP. V only one to stick around.

Flop K 9 5, 2 clubs ($35)

V checks, I bet 22, V makes it 72, I call without much thought lol. I know now I should have at least thought more. But I was punishing limpers for a long time, when he first sat down I had to assume he was awful (because that's the safest assumption) and he seemed to be getting a little peeved that I was raising and taking pf then showing T4o.

Turn K 9 5 - 3(non club) ($179)

V shoves about $350. This is never a made hand, right? I know otf I should have taken into account that V isn't going to c/r and then play passively the rest of the way lol, but w/e, we're ott now. From other threads, we've seen that moves like this are attempts at rep'ing big hands but are draws or worse in reality. I'm thinking clubs, although I think it's okay to rule out a suited A, because there was no reason for him not to raise pf from middle-late. So at best, he has some pair with the fd, making it around 14 outs, which makes me about a 2.75:1 favorite. Even though I'm only getting 1.5:1 on my money it's a clear +EV call.

Unless there's a long history involved and this is done to conceal a monster, am I right that this is pretty much never a made hand?
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Old 08-05-2013, 06:48 AM   #2
djkelly69
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Seems to me you are putting him on clubs because you beat that hand...

What suit is the K?

This is usually K9 or 33 ime.

Your 2.75:1 equity is basically best case - any other likely hand prob has you as a big underdog.
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Old 08-05-2013, 06:52 AM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by djkelly69 View Post
Seems to me you are putting him on clubs because you beat that hand...

What suit is the K?

This is usually K9 or 33 ime.

Your 2.75:1 equity is basically best case - any other likely hand prob has you as a big underdog.
How could he ever show 33 here?

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Old 08-05-2013, 06:55 AM   #4
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Why were you showing your hands if you didn't go all the way to showdown?
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Old 08-05-2013, 02:02 PM   #5
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

Getting 1.5-1 on your money probably makes this neutral EV if you can put a lot of combos of clubs in his range (as well as most made hands).
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Old 08-05-2013, 02:12 PM   #6
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I think he meant 55 not 33. 55 and k9 are definitely possible (maybe even a random k3 suited). He may put you on clubs and doesn't want you to outdraw him. He may put you on AK and expect you to call his shove (which he knows may look bluffy).
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Old 08-05-2013, 02:17 PM   #7
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

A lot of combo draws in there; 67, 68, 78, JT, QT, QJ, some two pair (most likely K9) and I guess sets (though I don't really get why he is jamming those unless he is really trying to level you into a call).

Is the K a ?

Seems like a lot of draws in his range.

Can you range him any better at all? Seen him flop c/r at all? Seen him play draws quickly? Would he raise any of these PF for the most part (QJs, QTs for example)?
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Old 08-05-2013, 02:27 PM   #8
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

this is pretty much never a bluff, bet fold flop, fold turn
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Old 08-05-2013, 02:43 PM   #9
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

Quote:
Originally Posted by bwslim69 View Post
A lot of combo draws in there; 67, 68, 78, JT, QT, QJ, some two pair (most likely K9) and I guess sets (though I don't really get why he is jamming those unless he is really trying to level you into a call).

Is the K a ?

Seems like a lot of draws in his range.

Can you range him any better at all? Seen him flop c/r at all? Seen him play draws quickly? Would he raise any of these PF for the most part (QJs, QTs for example)?
I don't remember if the K was a club. I had seen him with stacks at 2/5, but he had no reason to know/think I knew what I was doing, and if I was capable of calling light or folding big.

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Originally Posted by Buster65 View Post
Getting 1.5-1 on your money probably makes this neutral EV if you can put a lot of combos of clubs in his range (as well as most made hands).
There's no "probably" with math. 1.5:1 means I only need to win 1 of every 2.5 times, that's 40% of the time. If we take the most drawy hand V can have I'm still at least 70% to win against any flush/straight combo or pair/draw. So it's an easy call, IF this is never a made hand.

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Originally Posted by Ohlongjohnson View Post
this is pretty much never a bluff, bet fold flop, fold turn
Care to give me a made hand he takes this line with? And if you were going to bluff what size would you make it? Bet 1/4 PSB ott, value bet bluff pre-river?
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Old 08-05-2013, 03:06 PM   #10
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

This really does look strong to me. If he flatted your Cbet and then open-shoved the turn, I'd be snap calling. But the x/r, donk line seems like it is legit to me.

Where is the K? Does Hero have it in his hand?

You need a pretty good read to snap him off here. And your bankroll needs to be in good shape.

How did he make the shove? Did he move all his chips past the betting line? Or did he just say, all in, and not move any chips.

I have snapped off many folks who go all in by moving their whole stack into the middle of the table, in an attempt to build a big wall of chips to puff themselves out and make themselves look bigger -- like a peacock. This move is almost always a weak hand.

On the other hand, I've found that folks who go AI and keep their chips where they are tend to really like their hand.

If it was my butt in the seat, I could definitely see the merits of snapping him off here. But based on the info given so far, I think I let this one go.
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Old 08-05-2013, 03:06 PM   #11
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

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Originally Posted by Ohlongjohnson View Post
this is pretty much never a bluff, bet fold flop, fold turn
LOL, wat?
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Old 08-05-2013, 03:34 PM   #12
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In game this flop is generally a b/f for me. As played I'm more inclined to call his turn bet than I would be had he made a more conventional 2/3 -3/4 pot bet. I get the feeling, like some others here, that his range is pretty club heavy here. Seems like a 2/5 player trying to push you off the kind of big one pair hand that you have.

Seems like he would have an easier time getting value (with K9 or 55 type hands) from your perceived range with a more conventional turn bet and river shove.

I think I call this turn bet here and take a walk if I'm wrong.

Interesting hand, thanks for posting.
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Old 08-05-2013, 04:15 PM   #13
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
So at best, he has some pair with the fd, making it around 14 outs, which makes me about a 2.75:1 favorite. Even though I'm only getting 1.5:1 on my money it's a clear +EV call.

Unless there's a long history involved and this is done to conceal a monster, am I right that this is pretty much never a made hand?
I don't think you should rely on the math to help you with a decision here, since we're on the turn.

If he's on a draw, then you're still far enough ahead that the math will be fine, even at 1.5:1.

But I tend to look at these as super-polarized situations where Villain has it or he doesn't. If he has it, you're never good.

But that doesn't mean you shouldn't call. He might be bluffing 100% of the time in this spot, given this action... i.e. it may well be a fact that he never has 2p+ when he takes this line.
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Old 08-05-2013, 04:16 PM   #14
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This screams "i haz flush draw" he raised the flop hoping to take it down right there then bricked the turn and didnt feel like thinking about what to do as its at lower stakes than he normally plays and just shipped knowing you would probably fold and if not he has outs so its not that bad of a play.

Im guessing he thinks you value 350 dollars and vs most 1/3 players its a pretty good play since you cant have many monsters on this board. And most ppl arent going to have the balls to call with one pair

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Old 08-05-2013, 06:59 PM   #15
eldiesel
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

^ ( previous 2 posts)

Yeah, this is what I'm thinking now. At the time, I felt ahead, but used the "the other 8 guys at the table are morons so why am I even in this pot" reasoning and folded.

FWIW, he did make a huge bet in an earlier pot after rivering the nfd, stared the guy down and didn't move any chips. In this hand he wasn't looking at me all too much and moved every chip into the middle.
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Old 08-05-2013, 09:32 PM   #16
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Yeah sorry I meant 55 not 33.

Suit of the K is pretty important...

Really don't think you can give him all combos of FDs here without a good read. More likely pair plus fd or combo draws imo (again why suit of K is important), and 99, 33 and K9.

Still feel it is less than a neutral EV call.
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Old 08-05-2013, 10:26 PM   #17
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

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Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
There's no "probably" with math. 1.5:1 means I only need to win 1 of every 2.5 times, that's 40% of the time. If we take the most drawy hand V can have I'm still at least 70% to win against any flush/straight combo or pair/draw. So it's an easy call, IF this is never a made hand.
Yeah, the probably is not about the math, but about the fact that you want to give him ALL draws, and NO made hands. I don't believe that. If you take all made hands and every single flush draw and combo draw, you are 52-48, but that includes some of the flush draw combos that are unlikely. If you want to balance those against removing the made hands you feel are unlikely, that's fine by me, but in the game I play, every made hand would be betting pretty big to "protect" vs flush draws (lotsa fishies), and in that game, I suspect you would be mostly 40% against most Vs range, hence the neutral EV comment.
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Old 08-05-2013, 11:47 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by Buster65 View Post
Yeah, the probably is not about the math, but about the fact that you want to give him ALL draws, and NO made hands. I don't believe that. If you take all made hands and every single flush draw and combo draw, you are 52-48, but that includes some of the flush draw combos that are unlikely. If you want to balance those against removing the made hands you feel are unlikely, that's fine by me, but in the game I play, every made hand would be betting pretty big to "protect" vs flush draws (lotsa fishies), and in that game, I suspect you would be mostly 40% against most Vs range, hence the neutral EV comment.
Villian as described has a fd/combo draw here like 90+% man.

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Old 08-06-2013, 04:06 AM   #19
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

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Villian as described has a fd/combo draw here like 90+% man.
Then there is not much to discuss, is there?
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Old 08-06-2013, 04:44 AM   #20
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

villain could have 3 3 here. Just saying. If he has an idea of ranges he probably realizes that your value range on this flop is K 10+, A A, K K, and sometimes 10 10-Q Q and A 9 while your pf raising range in position facing limpers is much much wider than that since you feel he has clearly noticed you taking advantage of this. However him having 3 3 isn't the point but i feel like he could have raised your cbet with almost atc but then his shove ott is probably strictly flush draws, combo draws, 5 5, 3 3, K 9, K 3 and 9 5 suited and if you don't have the Kc then Kc Xc has to be added in there as well. I'm leaning towards a fold cause after you call the c/r your range narrows quite a bit and if he thinks you're not folding most of it to him his shove is perfect for the part of his range that is crushing you.
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Old 08-06-2013, 10:27 AM   #21
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

One other thing I want to say about this hand...

When I'm sitting at 1/2 or 1/3 and a 2/5+ guy sits down, I target him when I have a monster.

Here's an example.

I'm at the 3/5NL, $200 cap buyin game a Commerce. I have KQs and open to $35 from CO after 4 limpers. Button calls and 2 limpers call.

The Button here is known to be a 5/5NL and 5/10NL player who's just sitting waiting to be called for his seat. The entire time he's sitting to my left, I'm hating life, and tightening way up. KQs is about the bottom of my range here since he's directly on my left. I'm looking to seat change or table change, but haven't found anything suitable just yet.

Flop comes K-rag-rag rainbow, and I Cbet $100 into a $140 pot. Button raises to $300. Everyone else folds, I flat. And, BTW, he's raising the flop all the time.

Turn is a Q. I snap shove for like $1400 into the $740 pot. He snap calls, and snap mucks after I turn my cards up.

He never has AK here since he would have 3b me preflop 300bb deep, so he has a pair or something weak. And the thing is, this player never has a set here since they're comfortable allowing Hero to draw, and put more $$$ in the pot, and so they're not usually raising the flop even with a strong made hand, even 300bb deep. These guys seem to frequently have reverse bet sizing tells.

When I shoved, he snap called because he thinks I'm just trying to resteal the pot away from him. He probably had a K or AQ or whatever. It doesn't really matter because he's never expecting me to shove 2x the pot on the turn with the effective nuts, so he calls expecting whatever he has to be good by a mile.

Also, he's used to playing with $2000+ in front of him. So while $1400 is a huge bet for 3/5NL, its a medium bet for 5/5 and a standard bet for 5/10.

So what I'm saying is, you have to take into account how villain will see the amount of money bet. In the case of 5/5 and 5/10 players, you have to notice if they're properly adjusting to smaller games. If they're not, then you need to turn up the sizing on your bets, and on bets you're willing to call.

This is the opposite of the situation posted herein. I'm just relating it to show that these oversized bets can be hugely profitable, either in calling them when Villain is spewing, or making them when Villain thinks he's Superman.

Last edited by Lapidator; 08-06-2013 at 10:37 AM.
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Old 08-06-2013, 01:23 PM   #22
ManikMarlin
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Re: Facing massive turn overbet

Quote:
Originally Posted by eldiesel View Post
^ ( previous 2 posts)

At the time, I felt ahead, but used the "the other 8 guys at the table are morons so why am I even in this pot" reasoning and folded.
I think this is right. You are very likely ahead but he has K9 and 99 enough of the time to fold here and put your money to use milking the rest of the table. Also, if you've seen his stacks at 2/5 you can assume he's done the same.
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