Hand 1:
Hero opens 98s from HJ. BU calls.
Flop 8TT with possible FD. Cbet, call.
Turn blank 3. Should maybe pot control, but Hero bets 50% pot.
Villain jams for about potsized.

Now, in my book it makes absolutely NO sense to jam a T here. I would always call and pick off a possible river bluff or raise a value bet.
So I figured, Villain must have a lot of semibluffs here. And called.
Obviously he shows QT for the virtual nuts.

Hand 2:
Hero 65s. Turn 9748. with possible FD.
Flop was bet-call. Hero bets T, Villain raises potsized. Villain jams river potsized.
Obviously has JT.

How in the world can I get away easier? These Turn raises are just outside of my opponent models. How can I ever expect them to show up with the nuts?

On the other hand, it seems as the Turn raise is ALWAYS THE NUTS at the low stakes. But how can anyone be so stupid and blow me off my hand with the nuts?
Please help me get my head around this...

Some dumb Villains like to raise a lot with the best hand.

Who knew?

Very helpful
Everbody except me obviously

For hand one, it seems obvious that he did it because he gets called by lots of over thinking players like yourself.

Hand 2, more experienced players call your hand holding the donkey end of the straight. You now know why.

If I posted a hand for most examples you would be the idiot in the hand. Simple answer is don't call a raise ever post in low stakes nonsense and you'll do fine.

Next time don't post results.

H1: The board has a flush draw and a straight draw and you don't think it makes sense for Tx to jam just a PSB here? Just because you would call and pick off bluffs doesn't mean that's how your opponents think, and the vast majority of your opponents (especially the straightforward ABC ones) are jamming here because they don't want to be sucked out on. If you're betting, pretty trivial fold against ABC opponents, imo.

Ditto for thinking on H2.

I'm not sure what your background is (do you come from on-line?) but given this thread and the limp/reraising thread (where again you are paying off limp/reraisers with lol hands), you really have to start wrapping around your mind around a couple of basic facts: ABC opponents are (a) not playing back at you and (b) raising the ~nuts on scary boards so they don't get sucked out / charge the draws / hope to get paid off by worse.

GcluelessNLnoobG

We rarely agree, but this one I can +1.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Against real fish you can't apply any mathematical model or strategic plan to their play. Their ranges are not based on some judgement of your opening range, they are playing JT because they think JT is a good hand. They are raising the turn with the nuts because they have the nuts and want to get their money in rather then some analysis of your play.

You need to develop a generic model of fish and how they play based on experience and then modify by individual.

Why shouldn't they keep raising if you'll keep calling?

That

I have a friend, who mostly play's tourneys, who's favourite hoody has J T on it. Wears it all the time.

Dude you have a serious case of entitlement tilt. It’s horrible. 2nd thread you’ve started where you’re crying about ‘V didn’t play it the way I think he should of!’. I don’t think you’re ever going to improve until you analyze you’re own (terrible) play. Instead of asking about V’s play, why did you 1/2 PSB the turn in hand 1? Inquiring minds want to know.

Also in hand 1, when V went call/call/open jam, what do you think this line usually is? You should be able to play perfect against this without even seeing your cards.

You have a long way to go my friend.

Hand 1 - V jams with trips, H calls with an underpair
Hand 2- V jams with the nuts, H calls with worse (even though this one is more of a cooler)

Why wouldn't V jam in either case when you called both? Hand 2 also says nothing about your position, V position, stack sizes, etc. Those might be somewhat relatively important...

Hand 1: Why is it "stupid" to jam here? I mean you bet called drawing stone dead. Doesn't sound like a stupid jam to me. Plays in a vacuum can't be stupid, just strategies can. Is he supposed to just let you check behind AA-JJ/99 on the river?

Hand 2: It's a cooler. Not sure how you're involved w/ 65s but this is one of the problems w/ a hand like this: you run into bigger straights.

Hand 1 - your turn bet is a exploitive bet and is totally fine as long as you know your opponent well enough to know what their raise will mean. If you're not sure what a raise will mean from them, then you have to check the turn. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Hand 2 - Folding there would be tough. Mostly just a cooler unless its an OMC

Dont play SC if you cant navigate postflop well.

Lol, fully agree. So basically you’re pointing out that TT8 isn’t the target flop for 98s???

Villain knew that you would say to yourself "He wouldn't shove a 10 here" and wanted to get value from all your over pairs.

He was lucky enough to run into someone who would call the all in with 98.

Villain seems like a really good player.

This is doubtful. The chance that he's a level 1 player and is just "I have a good hand, I'm all in" is much greater than the chance he's a level 3 player.

OP's problem is trying to level 3 his/her assumed level 2 opponents, which goes horribly wrong when playing against a bunch of level 1 players. This is one reason why taking more theoretically optimal lines is better than trying to be exploitive.

you need social skills to be good at poker, people don't run on algorithms

what you call stupid they call how to double up with the nutz

quit trying to apply how you would play if you were them and start to learn to read how they think and play

Hand 1 - I only play 1/2 or 1/3, and mostly play in CT where on paired boards it feels like 80-95% of the time people only continue with trips or better on paired flops. This past month I did a trip to Vegas and had some time to play in Philly and MD. I managed to fold the best hand to a bet when holding something like AK on a K1010 board a few times. Small sample size but I am thinking a lot of what you are talking about has to do with where you play.

In general I agree that at low stakes villians are focused on their hand only and not thinking about your holding. Thus they tend to bet big with big hands. One key exception is I find villians jam the flop with flush draws a lot, but you need a read to call those bets IMO.

The best pieces of advice I have gotten from this forum over the years (again this is specific to 1/2 and 1/3) are:

"Embrace the art of the bet-fold, especially on turn and river"
"If raised on the turn, if you cannot beat pocket aces, fold"
(This second one is my spin on the Baluga Theorem)

+1, V basically gifted you a chance to not put any more money in the pot with the 98 and you went with it anyway.

This is really incorrect; I highly doubt you'll ever sit at even the lowest stake table nowadays where anyone is not thinking about what their opponent may have. Heck, most opponents are a level beyond that (i.e. considering what their opponent thinks they have). This "all my opponents are level 0 thinkers" is *so* lol outdated; think this at your own risk.

But it also doesn't mean that they can't just default back to level 0 in lots of spots, such as when the pot is big and the board is drawy and they haz trips and they only have a PSB behind. Heck, I would even default to level 0 here because the reasons to do so mostly outweigh the reasons to do otherwise.

GcluelesslevelthinkingnoobG

Thx for a variety of views on my problem/hands, guys.