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Old 01-07-2019, 07:23 PM   #1
venetioon
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Facing a flop shove with an overpair

1/2 at the Venetian

Hero $200 (OTB) QQ
Villain $200 (MP)
Villain seems to be playing pretty loose and seeing a lot of flops but not much of a read as she just got to the table 30 mins ago.

Villain opens to $12. Hero raises to $30. Folds to villain who calls

Flop ($63):
10
J
6
Villain checks. Hero bets $50. Villain shoves for $170. Hero folds.
Line check on the open, flop and whether this is a fold.

Last edited by venetioon; 01-07-2019 at 07:41 PM.
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Old 01-07-2019, 07:30 PM   #2
momo_uk
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Facing a flop shove with an overpair

How can you fold for $120 more? And if you’re going to bet/fold, cbet smaller OTF.
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:09 PM   #3
Minatorr
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

Bigger pre

Flop is meh call i guess, not folding
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:26 PM   #4
branch0095
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

Definitely c-betting smaller if you're planning on bet/folding (though you shouldn't be b/f IMO). As played, very trivial call for another $120 when you're playing 100bb poker. You flopped an OP on a wet board and you already put 1/3rd of your stack in.
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:39 PM   #5
QuadJ
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

Flop bet should be a bit smaller to save money when you do fold. Fold to the shove is a live read but you should favor a call after your big bet. The board is good for draws but it's pure guess work how many draws villain has in their range yet.
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Old 01-07-2019, 08:46 PM   #6
onguard
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
19,800 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 6
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QdQh34.58% 6,748198
JJ, TT, 66, KQ, AcJc, AcQc, AcKc65.42% 12,854198

Sets, KQ, and big Ax combo draws is still a call at this price. If he can have 89 and can 't have aces or kings it's a flip. If he can straight bluff or has more draws it gets even better. Pretty tough fold.
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Old 01-07-2019, 09:29 PM   #7
DrChesspain
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

I can't imagine folding on this wet board to an unknown.
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Old 01-07-2019, 10:10 PM   #8
johnnyBuz
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

Snap and bink or snap and fade.
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Old 01-07-2019, 10:16 PM   #9
Koss
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

Quote:
Originally Posted by venetioon View Post
Villain seems to be playing pretty loose and seeing a lot of flops but not much of a read as she just got to the table 30 mins ago.
It's enough of a read for me to call this.
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Old 01-08-2019, 04:00 AM   #10
Minatorr
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

Quote:
Originally Posted by onguard View Post
ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation
19,800 trials (Exhaustive)
board: J T 6
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
QdQh34.58% 6,748198
JJ, TT, 66, KQ, AcJc, AcQc, AcKc65.42% 12,854198

Sets, KQ, and big Ax combo draws is still a call at this price. If he can have 89 and can 't have aces or kings it's a flip. If he can straight bluff or has more draws it gets even better. Pretty tough fold.
Really don't think KQ deserves 100% frequency given line. Giving equal weight to high frequency hands that play like this often (JJ/TT) and hands like KQ that don't play this way often (ie KQ folds a good amount pre, and a female isn't just jamming K high here that often vs a huge cbet) is a very big mistake when ranging.

I'd put at least some combos of AJo before I start putting a lot of combos of KQ. What about JTs?

Last edited by Minatorr; 01-08-2019 at 04:14 AM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 04:17 AM   #11
WereBeer
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

I call AP, meh spot but w/e.

Bet more pre.
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Old 01-08-2019, 07:04 AM   #12
venice10
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Re: Facing a flop shove with an overpair

You're ahead the majority of the time. The mistake people often make on their decisions is that they become results orientated. You're going to be wrong 40% of the time here and lose your stack. Still is absolutely the best play to make.
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