Yeah thread count means absolutely nothing. But years on 2+2 does mean something imo. But even then a lot of posters here misapply information. Or they just don't apply information they have learned.

No normal decent player is leading the turn for 2/3 pot when he makes a boat. Sorry not happening without him having a soulread on Hero.

I still say this is a call, we're so under-repped here.

#1 i didnt post this hand go look at the OP.
#2 if this guy is as TAG as OP says then this is not a bad hand to bust his overpair with. if villain is going to play straightforward and we have position on him and can rep scare cards on turn/river etc and we know how to play postflop and hand read very well then i see nothing wrong with it. j9o not the absolute best hand to do this with but i dont see why its like zomg snap fold. i mean maybe you just setmine and play the nuts, but not everybody does that, especially 250bb+ deep.

i think the biggest thing that the "foldpre" group is missing is that we are pretty deep here. im not advocating calling with j9o 100-150bb deep. im also not saying its the best hand ever to hit, be disguised, get paid, etc. as your stacks get deeper certain hands lose value and certain hands gaine value. big pairs lose value. if you are 1000bb deep OOP with AA i would not 3b pre against a good player, because he can just own you, at the end of the hand you will most likely have one pair. do you want to call 1000bb with one pair? probably not. hands like suited Aces go up in value because you can overflush someone. being in position is huge when you are deep too. playing standard TAG or nitty style IMO is not the msot profitable way to play when deep. playing every single hand in position like 93o isnt good when deep either the hand does not play well post flop. a hand like 93o has terrible flush/straight possibilities, and if you flop 2 pair it may not be good in the end. j9o/910o/10jo hands like that are a little strong with their straight/2pair/combo draw opportunities. it keeps our range wide on certain boards and may be intimadating for some villains when certain boards come out.

basically, this isnt 100bb poker, things change, and as someone else said alraedy, everybody plays differntly, LAG, TAG, loose passive, whatever. if it works for you it works. personally in deep games i think opening up your range is extremely profitable against the right opponents.

Lol this is why fish are always like "I can't believe you had that!" when I drop the hammer on them

LOL I still think its funny people are advocating calling here.

For those players advocating calling, please try to recall the last time you saw someone bet more that double the pot on the river in $1/$2 as a bluff.

What? Never? oh..

At 1/2 live it happens often.

And 11t, I actually pull this move from time to time against fish for the same reason you mentioned. But considering how Hero describes Villain, he doesn't seem like a thinking player who would play the hand this way. Also the Turn is a standard bet which signifies strength and then he spazzes OTR. It just doesn't add up. I feel like we only lose to 88 and A9 here and that's very unlikely.

Of couse he doesn't know for sure what we have, but the 9 and the straight completing are scare cards for him, plus other stuff we can have that beats an overpair. And he gets it all in for $450 on one street in 1/2 NL anyway. This is a huge amount for this game, rarely if ever is it going to come from anything but an enormous hand.

Even if you gave him a decent amount of AA/KK in his range, AND the chance of pure air, it likely still wouldn't be enough to call.

This entire thread is kind of silly, this is a pretty easy fold. People are creating reasons to call simply because they hate the idea of folding trips live, because we've been conditioned by this site to think that everyone there sucks and never has anything.

Uh, no, it doesn't, not when the bet amount is $450 or anywhere near it. I doubt you could name five times in your life where you ever saw this occur.

As far as the second bolded part, it's pretty odd to narrow the range to A9 and 88. Why can't he have 98s? K9? 2's full? Doesn't make sense to make the range include two huge hands but not others that still fit the action.

+1 no justification for this call. Make a note of it, and ask the guy to show.

Ok, awesome. How about all the times you end up doing the same thing preflop, and lose money when it's J-4-2, or T-8-3 and you miss?

You can talk yourself into playing almost any hand any time any position if your thought process is constantly, "my opponent is a live fish who probably has a big pair or big face cards and if I get the right flop I'll stack him". This is the type of thinking applied by people who think they're great but are actually playing the same silly loose style as the fish they're trying to stack.

It's not a dumb line if it comes from 22 and it confuses the hell out of someone who is solid and internet savvy like the people here, and causes them to call with J9 because they think he has AA.

I truly could name a dozen times where someone has grossly overbet the river w/ no aggression from myself or another opponent and they've been bluffing (I've also called into this situation and ran into Quads, so it's not like its a guarantee either way).


As hero describes Villain, I find it hard to believe that he would raise 22 or 98s from EP. We have incomplete information, so based on that we need to assume the likelihood of certain hands preflop. I'd say that the % of live 1/2 players who raise pocket 2's preflop OOP is less than 5%.

On a side note I love how I'm the only one remaining ITT whos advocating a call. Hey I could be wrong but from what I read and my own personal experience a fold loses us a very big pot.

In game, I might be on your side and make this call. The read on villain really isn't enough to help me make up my mind, though. Just calling someone TAG doesn't tell me enough. Give me some hands he's played, how he's played them, etc.

This thread is the funniest thing I've read on 2+2 in a while. You know, I have this fear that one day my edge will dry up as everyone figures out how to play the game.

And then I read the responses here about why we should call... And I thank God.

The river is such an easy fold that arguing why is like arguing why the holocaust was bad...

I often wonder at the fish psychology that renders the action of folding in this spot impossible.

If you can rationalize calling in this spot then you have serious catastrophic torpedo leaks in your game. In fact, you are probably doing all types of things wrong...

But alas I digress.

Can J9 be ahead here? Sure, its possible. If I had to guesstimate a probability, i'd say J9 is ahead here about 5% of the time (and I think I'm being overly generous). So, one time in 20 you are good here.

My last post on this matter. Seriously, if you think J9 is good here, then you need some intensive invasive poker therapy which should include electric shocks to your genitalia interspersed with Ron Jeremy-esque anal cattle prodding.

+4L a Million times.

Wow. A "dozen" times. Unless you just started playing in the last couple of months, this isn't very many. Also, for the second time you used general phrasing about overbetting the pot on the river, without commenting on amounts. Obviously, it's a lot easier and more common for someone to try and steal a $30 pot on the river by firing $50 than it is for someone to be bombing $450 here.

DGI Harris is totally correct. it really is almost a lock here that this size a shove is coming from a huge hand. If J9 is good more than 5% of the time, it isn't by much, it's not like you can somehow construct a reasonable range which makes J9 good 40% of the time.

Its funny because when I actually think about players on this forum. Most are clueless. Like seriously, I can't believe ,some have been posters for too long and they are set in there ways like a old ass mutha****a.

Get it together guys, too much information online. Videos(youtube), podcast I strongly agree that people listen and pokerstove(if you don't know how to use it, splitsuit has a perfect video on how to use it).

Results don't matter, calling an over bet with a 9 and hit your card ott, we should be raising big, 98% of standard players will not have a bluffing range. Otr I'm never calling here.

This is very interesting and I think this was a really good thread. I really appreciate all the input.

I ended up calling, (and losing) and I think that it was a terrible decision. Not necessarily because of the over bet, but because when he went all in, the way he did it, I knew exactly what he had, told everyone immediately and then went in the tank and somehow came out with a call. I was very embarrassed to say the least, but it will stick with me for a long time and I think I'll make (or save) my money back eventually. I've been making great reads (even compared to the career players I play with) and once I learn to trust them with confidence, my poker life will be a lot easier.

He flipped over 88 and that's the only hand I could see him having that beats me. There are lots of hands that beat me, but here I knew he didn't have any of the others. I would agree that no one sane shoves here without a hand that beats mine, but in regard to those who said call, when I called I was very confident with the call. (I had to be to stack off to this guy). I could not imagine a poor-quality recreational player having the balls/being stupid enough to drive eights like that and magically hit a 2 outer on the river. He did though.

Sidenote: I posted this exact same post on another forum only included the results in the initial post and I got a terrible response. Basically one of the coaches called it a stupid play and everyone there jumped on the bandwagon. Efforts to defend my actions/ pose a different idea, were met with stern ridicule. I think in the end though the fact that I backed up my actions with well thought out reasoning paid off, as the coaches that started the whole thing ended up coming around and being very helpful, and in their defense, it wasn't their fault that 20 guys follow all of their posts with derogatory remarks with no informational value.

This was completely different and allowed me to take away a ton more. Thanks a lot, Run good.

Crazy hand by the way. To be fair and honest only 2 hands he show up with here. 88/A9, glad you learned from your mistakes I know I sure learn from everyones mistakes. These are the type of hands that make 2+2 a good place.

see, playing the hand preflop wasn't the biggest mistake of the hand. not raising on the turn cost you the pot. then calling the river when your spideysense told you you were beat was the most egregious mistake of all.

I know this thread is pretty much dead, now that we have the results! But just a little more information about my "brag"hand. Effective stacks were 200BB+, I raised EP with J9o. Villain, who was on the button and a young wanna-be LAG, min-raised, so I call. I flopped a nut-straight on a 1087 board (which, I knew, of course, was going to happen). I c/c three streets to get stacks in ... generally the way poker works for me, etc.

The point is that I'm not defending J9o as a great starting hand (I mean, seriously, why would I, except as a level?). When deep it plays ok against a JJs+/AQ+ range with around 27% equity. By comparison p/p are around 40%, a low suited connector (56/76) around 33%, QJo/KQo 26%. ATC trash hands like 93o or 72o are around 23%.

In a HU situation like this, with significant implied value (as you're likely against a nuttish-range), your hole cards aren't as important (gasp) as some might believe (especially those fixated by 100BB ABC poker). You're never going to be better than 40% worse than 20%, and, of course, when seeing a flop cheap, well, then, your preflop equity can change, sometimes just a little, other times more.

The suggestion that J9o has significant RIO is misplaced. Really, am I going to drop my whole stack on a J-4-2 board, when Villain is likely playing a JJ+/AQ+ range? We might peel a flop and lose a 2/3 pot bet, but, c'mon, we can fold top pair to a second barrel, can't we? Sure, occasionally you run trips into a full-house, but, gee, this is just as likely to happen with AKo. The hands with genuine RIO are actually those with the best preflop equity (pp and low s/c).

More likely with AK to be honest I think. Like you said, you can fold J9 on a 9xx or Jxx board to significant pressure barring a tremendous read. But try getting the average player to fold AK on a K94 board. They're going broke there a lot more frequently than we are with J9.

fold preflop. This isnt a bad call preflop, its an awful one.

Maybe this is a discussion for another thread, but I wanted to get this out. I'm not going to go into whether or not preflop here was good or not. But I've been seeing an overwhelming trend of loose preflop calls being made under the guise of "we're deep." Just because we're 300BB deep in a hand doesn't mean there's a realistic chance of winning that much very often, if ever. Against good players, the only time all that money is going in is during massive cooler situations when you both have monsters. You'll be on the losing end of those sometimes too. Think AJ99 boards.

I don't know the exact number, but it seems like once hands get deeper than about 150BB or so, if the villain is a decent player, being deeper doesn't really matter much. He's just not going to stack off lightly. 150BB seems to be about all your getting out of AA in these spots. So if a call isn't good at 150, it's probably not good at 300. Now as players get crappier, you can maybe justify some calls with weak connectors like this because a bad player may donk off 200-300BB with AA on a T87 flop. However, do you hit this enough to make the preflop call worth it? Maybe, sit down and do the math.

I know a lot of TAGs on this board are looking to loosen up their games a bit. But playing looser preflop when deep just to try and hit gin isn't really the way to open up your game. A lot of the value you'll get from lagging it up comes in the form of smaller pots. You have to be able to push people off hands postflop, as well as thin value bet in the right spots. You're not just looking to play a few monster pots when deep. Those situations just don't happen often enough, and a lot of times all you'll get is 100BB anyways. Just my thoughts on the matter. I start salivating to when I see all those chips in front of them, but they really just do not go into the pot that often.