Hey all this hand is 290 effective stacks at 1/3

V1 UTG+2 covers (late 20s white guy). Recently sat down at the table, saw him scoping out tables earlier around the casino so he seems like a reggy thinking player type, not played many hands yet though

V2 HJ (fishy 50s gentleman) limping a lot playing a stack of 200ish vanilla loose passive ish

V3 BB covers (30s white guy) playing very wide pre decent amount of PFR but also calling a lot when it is raised, not 3betting light pre. Pretty aggro postflop

UTG+2 makes it 10 V2 calls I call with A6 on the button V3 calls.

Flop 10 6 5

checks around

Turn 6

V1 makes it 5 V2 folds I make it 35 V3 folds V1 3bets to 125 hero?

I don't know what to make of his 5 dollar bet but I have trips top kicker so I'm gonna raise for value. When he comes over the top with a turn 3bet I just have no idea how to range him here and am very confused by his line. combo draw like 78 or 89? I guess he could have the case 6 but that seems pretty unlikely I imagine he would bet TT and 55 on the flop but once he 3 bets they have to be in his range at some percentage.

Honestly I was pretty lost as to how to range the villain and whether to just jam it in now or flat and reevaluate the river.

Don't fall into the trap of saying villain having the other 6 is really unlikely in this situation. Those hands make up only a small fraction of the range of hands villain could have when he puts the first turn bet in, but when he raises 90% of the other hands are discounted entirely. All of his pure bluffs, all of his single pairs, middle pairs, even a lot of pure straight draws don't make the 3 bet.

If he has the 6X then from his point of view the most likely hands for you are single pairs (mostly done with the hand) and various potential draws (that he wants to raise now). So 6X are the most likely hands to raise. With draws he has to put 6X in your range and those are not likely to fold so he gains little by raising. He could raise with an actual boat but he could also flat and hope you do hit and lose your entire stack.

My inclination is too flat call and evaluate on river. Stack sizes make that awkward though because villain is likely to shove no matter what. So I can't say a straight shove is bad but I still slightly prefer a call.

Villain raised pre, right? So you should start with a range of JJ+, maybe TT and 99. ATs+, AQo+
Villain checking flop is weird, especially with his PP range so we can discount JJ+ here. He may check with top set looking to ch/raise and he may check with 99 here to see who takes a stab with Tx. To some extent he may check with FD here too

Your problem is you don’t have any credible value hands since you checked back flop on the button closing the action
So villain here can put you on all semi bluff hands ...and if he is a good hand reader he can also raise here with 99 for value and to get you off of a weak TX or some other value Hand that you decided to take a stab with on the turn.

Given the way the hand played out I go with it here


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We lose to 7 combos:
3 x TT
3 x 55
1 x 65s

Those are the only hands that would raise preflop from early position and have us beat.

It definitely makes sense for him to have one of those hands. On the flop: he wanted to x/r his 2pr/set but unfortunately it got checked around. On the turn: he improved to a boat and wanted to make a tiny bet that would suck someone in with a draw and maybe induce a raise. So all 7 combos of value hands are consistent with his line.

Now, does he have any value hands that we beat? I think he's unlikely to play JJ+ this way, since he would want to bet more than $5 on the turn.. Perhaps a weak Txhh hand like T8hh-AThh that wanted to x/r the flop. I think he rarely has naked trips when he bets $5 on the turn though.

It's a gross spot because all the boats make sense, none of the trips/overpairs make sense and the only top pairs that make any sense are the 6 combos of T8hh-AThh. Maybe we can throw in 2 combos of 87hh and 97hh too.

I'm probably sigh calling turn and calling any river card that's not a heart (unless it's the Ace of hearts). I don't expect to be good that often here though. It's a gross spot.

This is TT a ton. The problem here is what we're to make of that $5 bet, because a player capable of a 3-bet bluff here wouldn't usually have check flop, make pointless $5 bet on turn in his range. Usually someone aggressive enough for the bluff would have done something aggressive prior to that (like cbetting the flop). It makes a lot more sense for the $5 lead to be someone who has the nuts and doesn't know what to do (which is why people take weird lines when they flop the nuts - they panic, basically).

Whether we can fold this hand to an unknown is something else. I could go either way. It's a pretty gross fold to be making, but then this is a pretty gross line. I'd probably rely on lol live reads.

btw, from the same thread as that "laws of LLSNL" quote:

Same thing here, this reeks of TT.

This. He should only have TT, and sometimes an overplayed 67s or A6s (but these 2 combos shouldn't be in his opening range that often). That said, I don't think I'm a good enough player to lay this down.

Totally agree that I couldn't lay this down (trips with best kicker). I am not sure I've ever encountered a miniscule $5 bet (relative to size of pot) on the turn like that before. It would have given me pause for sure. I likely would have raised the $5 bet live too, but it's really more or less just leading out on a check.

For this small a price against an obvious looking juicer raise and with the fish in the pot and possibly the blinds coming along and with us on the Button, I don't hate preflop.

I probably lean to a flop bet when checked to. Most players in multiway pots will simply donk TP hands on drawy boards and we can get action from draws.

I'm basically treating this lol bet on the turn like a check and also just raising an amount I would bet, so fine.

Admittedly confusing spot on the turn. He basically juiced the pot preflop, and now he seems cool with wanting to play for stacks on the turn. Weird weird weird spot and I'm just as confused as you are. Posting bias leans this towards a fullhouse, but I'm not sure how I see this in real time at the table.

GuglyspotG

A seeming regular bets $10 in early position - I'm now thinking he's weighted more toward 56suited or 55 (he wanted to build a pot and be in position to get paid off if he hits). 1010 is possible too but seems less likely to me (perhaps as likely as 67suited in this spot). Again, I doubt I can fold but I'd be very concerned! : )

^^ so true.
in real time I am feeling kissed by the poker gods and have a hard time folding.
the way its been played any read is foggy at best.
against this unknown maybe he's trying to get super tough.
coin flip with me saying id hate myself more for folding

If you are going with it are you jamming or calling?

Admittedly tricky spot without much of a description of villain. For the purpose of analysis I think tiny bets should mostly be viewed as a check, but it carries more weight when villain puts in another bet - and should be stronger than a xr.

If villain has a boat, his line seems like a pretty horrific way to extract value from weaker hands, so this becomes a question of is he a good regular or bad regular. We should be more inclined to call vs a good player, since he is less likely to take this kind of fps line with a nutted hand, and consider making a tight fold vs a bad regular without evidence of spewy behavior post-flop.

results

I don’t think he is a bad player at all. Reread the action you wrote street by street and try to understand why it’s generally a +EV spot to take the line villain did




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5$ Bet on the turn is very bad what are you talking about?

It's a pretty bad line unless you know your V (in this case H) is thinking at advanced levels. The average player is folding 67 here about never. It's like reciting Shakespeare to a bunch of monkeys. If you are going to bluff, you have to tell a story that is understandable to the audience.

So you think he was just stone cold bluffing here? I still have no idea what he could possibly have had

I would have put a large part of his range on TT, but the fact that he didn't makes this a bad play. That's all I'm saying. You make this move with TT because you know 95% of 1/2 players are not folding 67 here ever much less A6. So if you can't beat 67, shoving money into this pot is bad.

The Line I’m referring to is villain raising your 35 raise. His 5 bet is bad but pretty much the same as checking here. You should have a bunch of weak value hands taking a stab at the pot or /bluffs when you raise to 35 and would fold the majority of your range to a sizable reraise here.


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Against someone on 2+2 who bets for thin value and overfolds, sure, but villain’s line against a population that doesn’t bluff enough, doesn’t go for thin value enough, and hates folding is probably terrible. I don’t think overbluffing on this card is going to be profitable against the average player but maybe I’m wrong.

Shove and pay that man his money if he has you beat. If this is how he plays the nuts, he should more than welcome at your table anyway.

Note I don’t think we are necessarily disagreeing. As hero I said it’s best to just get it in on the turn based on how the hand played out on the flop.
If I were villain, I would recognize that while hero can have 6x in his range there are a number of bluffs and weakish inferior value hands hero can raise here with on the turn. So as villain, a reraise here will get a lot of folds.
With the exception of the $5 donkbet on the turn, villain’s line is actually an advanced play, whether villain meant it intentionally or not I don’t know


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I have seen people playing AA weird.

normal EP raise, hoping someone reraise with AK.. JJ+
Check flop, hoping someone else bet a draw and they can re-raise..
Frustrated Weird check raise on turn, I don't want to fold my cracked AA ;(