Hero has pretty tight image at the table. Has been showing nothing short of the goods every time it gets to showdown. First time playing against villain.

A bit of history against V from session: Have seen him semibluff/play draws fast a couple times. One particular hand, he called a c/r shove OTT against Hero getting 1.2 to 1 with OESD and FD vs Hero's turned straight, getting 1.2 to 1, and got there on the river.. followed by the comment "I'd call $500 with that hand if I had that much in front of me" which leads me to believe he's not the brightest player/doesn't understand basic poker math.

On to the hand:

Hero: BB ($350) with AJ
Villain: MP (~$400)

BTN straddles $5, SB calls, Hero Calls, UTG calls, V makes it $25 from MP. Folds around to Hero who calls and is HU with V.

Flop: ($65) Q62 Hero checks, V bets $25, Hero calls.
Turn: ($115) 2 Hero checks, V bets $25, hero c/r $75 (questionable, but kind of a tilt raise vs particular villain bc of previous history). Not best sizing either but w/e.

River: ($265) 4 Hero leads for $125 trying to look valueish and maybe fold a weak Q or JJs and below. V raises to $260... Hero??

Is he ever bluffing here with a missed draw? Given our previous dynamic, I wouldn't put it past V to try to bluff with a missed draw without realizing Hero is pot committed given he doesn't fully understand odds. Also, Hero's tight image might give V the notion he can push him off a Q here.. AP, Hero puts villain on QQs or total air, and is getting 4.9 to 1 to bluff catch with A high. I'm leaning towards a fold since V's line looks pretty nutted and these 1-2 players are pretty ABC but is a call with A high here ever justified given previous dynamics...?

What hand could he possibly have that we beat?



Raise pre.

Flop is okay.

Turn I don't mind a small raise, his sizing looks scared/weird.

Check the damn river, he's never folding a blank after calling a turn c/r.

Basically a missed fd that he's turning into a bluff.. (Saw him do this a couple times during the session)

The problem is what FD can he realistically have given his raise pre? Exactly KTdd? Maybe T9dd? Not many possible combos.

Also, villains will bluff a missed draw when checked to sometimes, but it's very rare for them to call a c/r then bluff raise the river

He's folding if he had a diamond draw, but that's a small part of his range. Agree though, check the river and hope he checks back his king high flush draw. Also raise pre or fold at your first action. Even if I call the BB I'm still folding to his $25.

you arent tag if you are calling ajs from bb here

fold pre

if u are gonna call pre then lead flop or c/r flop

turn raise both u and him are pretty much repping nothing

river you both appear very weak and ace high or some mid pocket pair in his hand like TT will probably win the hand

Grunching:

Pre: Fold

Flop: Fine AP

Turn: C/R has potential but bump it up more, $100 - $120 at least if you are going to do it.

River: Given his call to your c/r, check. Fold to anything sizable. Even though you block most of the draws, he might still be bluffing a busted draw. That said, don't even think of calling his raise as played. Not only do you block the majority of draws, but you have shown a lot of strength. He won't be bluffing nearly as much as you think.

All in all, play all streets passively here. Betsizing suggests he has a smaller FD. If he does and you both get there, you will stack him. Maximize IO's.

He may also be playing the bottom of your range with a strong holding. (More likely.)

Don't call.

Good point and a strong reason to c/r flop or turn. Size it right though and give up after it fails.

You shot yourself in the foot by c/r turn. You also made it lol tiny.

Just c/r the flop like a normal person.

Don't think you gave the river bet much thought. You give villain way to good a price to ever fold. You already assessed that he wasn't the brightest poker player, so why are you trying the fancy bluff-by-betting-small trick? I am not endorsing a river bluff btw, it's not going to work.

This. If you want to be a hero on the river, you need to check and then call his bet. It's at least possible that he'll bet the river with a missed draw and you can call with Ace high. No one min-raises a bet on the river with a missed draw in a low-stakes game.

Kind of a tilt call as V had rivered me on several prior occasions.. Turn raise I was trying to rep 66s. His turn raise looked very weird and I tried to take the pot right then and there. In retrospect, should have made it $110 on the turn and c/f the river as my $75 raise was too small to fold weak Qs or other medium pairs

I agree with you. I tried to value bluff on turn and river vs an ABC player bc of a turn bet that looked weak and some tilt factor built up from previous hands vs villain. Ended up shooting myself in the foot. Once he raised river, his ultra small turn raise made sense and turned his hand face up. I mucked and showed him the J saying "I think your kicker's better than mine" trying to fish for info. As expected, V turned over QQs..

when you hero call you want to beat villains bluffing range. You dont. Villain could be bluffing with a pair of dueces, threes, fours, etc, even ace king you dont beat.. this isnt even a questionable fold it is a snap fold, river bet is spew