If this is not happening often, do I really need to take this ~flip and the slight +EV if I can catch better spots vs these fishes later?

Its good for your image. Gotta get that table in a gambling mood

This really harks back to a BRM question. A 5% edge is a 5% edge. It doesn't matter if it's an AIPF or calling a Vs river bet vs his perceived range.

If your roll is deep enough to absorb the loss, then you call. If not and/or you want less variance, then fold

So in theory you are passing up about $20 EV assuming one other pf caller of 6 and a 135 shove.

If he turns his hand over you call assuming you are rolled for your game. I'm not passing on 55/45 for 65 bbs.

However I personally think you don't take the flip with the bottom of your range because villain shows up with some small pairs as well and once he does his range is crushing the bottom of your range. Just giving him 22-55 makes you a 35/65 dog with 22-QQ.

As for fearing him hit and running for 65bb seems meh. His seat will be filled if he does and he's just as likely to be felted by someone else while we wait for a 65/35 spot.

If we aren't adequately rolled or if losing flips causes us to tilt or if we really aren't sure he has exclusively AK those are reasons to pass.

It depends on how tilted you get when you call and lose or call and win

I've met 1-2 guys like this, I basically snap w 77+ pre. Prob should snap with all pp. High Vol, but you get the added bonus of some dead money so over 2X in pot.

If it's guys who are shoving like 200bb in pre w more than 0 regularity, im tightening that down to spots w QQ+ (assuming they aren't otherwise maniacs).


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Thank him for keeping the RIO of your Ax value bets to a minimum. It isn't just about when they have AK, sometimes it is about when their range can't include AK anymore.

to comment further. In blackjack as an advantage player doing a straight counting game (no advanced tricky stuff) your largest edge is going to be around 5%. Back in my BJ days I was gleefully shoveling money in when my edge was closing in on 5%.

casinos were built on small edges
I personally have won a shtload of $ on small edges

We have rolls to deal with this kind of thing

If 5% is too small of an edge for you find something else to do (seriously)

Maybe you play on very tough tables where 5% edges are the best you can get. I seek 80-20 or better spots against whales.

Not sure why this thread was made in the first place?

The gist of it seems to be that you prefer to fold +EV spots to wait for spots that are more +EV (aka nut peddling) and feel that is more +EV than taking both the small +EV spot and the big plus EV spot because there is a chance the villain will hit and run the times he wins and his vacated seat filled with a better player?

Isn't the point of being well-rolled that you can take the 5% spots and the 80/20 spots? It's not really an either/or. In fact, willingness to gamble and giving action should help you generate more +EV spots later too.

FYP

How can that be a real question? If you know he has AK, and you know your equity against him, then... you just decide for yourself if you want to get your money in with that equity or not?

That's not a poker strategy question, it's a personal financial decision. It's up to you. I personally would never fold if I was sure I had good odds unless the game is way way way too big and it's a big shot.

No competent player can afford this mentality because winning poker is about grinding those 5% edges. Every time you pass up a spot worth $10 or $20, you are throwing away an hour's work.

I would note that in poker, unlike BJ, we have to account for error. 5% edge is narrow enough to be within a margin of error, and possible that we are getting it way wrong. There is an argument in favor of looking for bigger edges because the villains range may be different than we think.


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