Hero $250 behind, recently lost a pot with AK vs short stack. Hero shoved AK on q23 board, Short stack won with two pair.

Hero AQ utg +2 raises to $12. Two callers Relevanet Villian call on btn. Blinds fold

V1 covers hero. V1 pretty standard player. Raises a few times pre $15. All folded. Doesn't seem spewy, seems a bit agitated by senior citizen dealers. V1 white guy probably 25 ish

Flop
AA2 rainbow

Hero cbets $20, one caller folds, v1 calls

Turn 4

Hero cbets $40. V1 raises $90.

Hero thinks, probably not AK (I'm guessing he's 3betting) sets possible, Weaker A possible. Hero thinks and calls $50

River 5. Hero expecting V1 to check back. I think v1 has AJ through maybe A7.

Hero check, villian shoves.

What do you guys have?

Thanks

Shove turn. No one is folding 3 aces after they raise the turn there.

Just read description. Highly doubt description of villian has A7-A9 here. Would need more information. Turn can be a check or bet. Turn action to a raise can be fold/call/shove depending on information.

As played, river is close. His range definitely looks like flopped/turned boats.

Most players at a Vegas 1/2 game will NOT 3bet pre with AK, so you should not take this hand out of his range for that reason. However it is unlikely he has AK because it would be the case ace. It is more likely he has a full house with a hand like pocket fours than a better ace, but a boat with the case ace in his hand is possible. Most of the time here you are up against a bluff or a boat.

If V wins, this is basically a cooler. Call river.

Oh and if you're asking what to do after his shove well... as played I would call. You already put half your stack in the middle and you have a very strong hand.

No one bluffs like this at 1/2 Live. Especially not at Excalibur.

But they will bet an A less than AQ but not a boat thinking they are not bluffing or are ahead.

Yes they do. They take dumb lines of thought like: "I raised his $50 turn bet to $90 just to see where I was at and he only called and then checked the river to me so he must not have an ace. I'll shove and represent an ace since he obviously doesn't have one" I've seen it plenty of times.

True, hence why I said river is close.

I think you'd be surprised at how often villains have A3 here.

Thanks for explaining.

I've been bluffed with air at Excalibur before. A guy shoved on me on the turn. He was really aggressive and reckless though so it was an easy call.

I'm surprised this villain has raised to $15 a few times. When I play at Excalibur it seems like the standard pf raise is to something small like $7.

I'd call the river. Too many weaker aces in his range to fold.

Call. He can play A9+, and all boats like this

Call although I'd probably shove the river. He's never bluffing river and will call with worse often. AK sorry. Flopped boat sorry.

I click back the turn to $140. Best possible way to get the money in.

Grunch.

You should include the pot size on each street and how much the bet's are so we don't have to go back and do the math ourselves.

Pot OTR is... ~$45 + $20 + $20 + $90 + $90 = ~$265

and you have... $250 - $12 - $20 - $90 = $128 left...

$265 + $128 = $393

$393/$128 = ~3:1

so you have to be good 1 out of 4 times or ~25% on the time to make a call here break even...

Looks like there aren't any reasonable draws that Villain would have been chasing and missed, leaving him in a "must bluff to win situation". Seems unlikely to me that he is bluffing in this spot, so basically he has to be able to show up here with a ton of weaker Ax for calling here to be profitable. I actually find it questionable that he would even play AJ in this fashion. River looks like a fold without solid reads. Turn call is also "meh" although I agree that with you that I really don't want to fold at that point heh.

Err, I didn't do any ranging math/equity calks, but are you sure we want to call against that range?

Thanks for the replys. For all those that say to shove turn, are we saying this because we think we have the best hand?

ThaNEWPr0fess0r: your right I should have posted the pot. I was typing on my phone. my bad.

A9 (4 combinations), A10 (4 combinations), AJ (4 combinations)= 12 combos we beat.

A2 (3 combinations), A4 (3 combinations), 22 (3 combinations), 44 (3 combinations)= 12 combos we lose to.

So we're 50% against that range, and getting significantly better odds to call than that.

This is if we ONLY give him a range of A9+ and sets. If we add 1 combination of AK given that he didn't 3b pre and Hero has a read that it's not AK, then we're still doing fine. Add in occasional spazz bluff or something lower than A9, we're doing even better.

Thanks for all the feedback.

So I tank for 2 minutes. Ask if he has AK. No real reaction. I call.





He flips 33... Nh