NL 1/2 NWIndiana
I was in the lead following a rolled over $100 high hand at 2:15 today with 45 minutes to go. I qualified for it with Jacks full of threes. The lowest qualifiying hand for the promo is 10s full of jacks. No hand qualified for the 1 pm hour so I was due $200 if I held.

Guy offered me $75 for it at 2:20. I said "no way."
2:30 he asked me for a counter-offer. I said, "150." He refused.
It got to 2:40. He offered me "130."
HERO????????????
Should I take the 130 here or wait 20 minutes and hope for the best? Is it -EV to sell my hand early when it's as weak as Jacks full of threes? I've never thought of any of this before. Sorry if it's a stupid question.

You're missing important details, such as how many qualifying tables are running and about how many hands per hour your tables get.

In my room you probably wouldn't get $25 for that hand with 40 minutes to go as it's usually running many tables and very unlikely to hold.

Selling action can’t really be that bad of an idea. Jack’s full is $&@“. If there are more than 3-4 tables going i wouldn’t fault you for taking the $130. But playing it out isn’t terrible either. About a wash to me.

pardon me, there is only 1 table going at this point and i'd guess 30 hands an hour.

I always assumed you played at the Shoe until now. Must be Majestic??

i play at both. Majestic has the Monday high hand promo. It used to be on Wednesdays but now it's on Mondays. I was off work today. Over the summer i got involved in the magic seat morning giveaways at Majestic and it was definitely -EV. It was all rocks in the AM. If I get off work early i go to Horseshoe, never Majestic due to the rock garden before 4 pm.

Do you need to use 2 cards from hand or only 1 to qualify?

Assuming 2 cards from hand and this is the only table in the room, with 20 minutes left, you could probably start considering offers of $185 and higher. Table dynamics are a factor, especially if its always going to river cheap. Note: I'm not saying selling 185 is a good idea, but its probably not a bad offer. You don't really want to buy this for much less than $5ev

Excellent point. I should have mentioned that. It's just 1 card to qualify.

Jack's full is weak I'd sell it.

I'd keep it and start LAGging it up a little. Take down a few pots before showdown to protect the high hand. I've seen it done where a 10 high flush held up with half an hour to go.

I ended up selling it and then the guy began radically protecting it by betting 30 pre with shaky stuff. He did succeed in taking down a few hands preflop but lost $ overall in his efforts. The hand held up. I got 200 and gave it to him in the hallway. But jacks full of threes is pretty weak. When this happened i realized that i never thought about this issue before and thought I'd ask all of you as you guys know more about this stuff than me.

You may wish to read the poker math concept of the month.

The odds of hitting a FH on the flop with any two cards is 0.09%. If you have a pair pf, it jumps to 1%. At a 10 person table, there are going to be a total of 100 hands dealt in 20 minutes. The chances of any FH being dealt is about 6-7%, assuming everyone decides to gun for you and call pf with everything. Don't forget that many of the FH will be worse than yours.

Just really an awful deal on your part. It should make you wonder what other bad decisions you are making at the poker table that you think are "alright."

Well, it could be emotional memory on my part but often quads gets knocked out by quads later in the hour when i've been there for it. It rarely rolls over but yesterday there was just one table. The following hour the winner was AAAKK. I don't know if it was a bad deal because there was some collusion to see 5 cards like everyone was like "no chops" so we see the whole board. I was OK with it but you could be right.

Sorry i forgot to say the final price was $130 with 20 minutes to go.

A bird in hand is worth 2 in the bush. I'll take the guaranteed $130 over gambling for a measly $70 more. Especially if you only have to use 1 hole card to qualify.

You're ignoring the turn and river. The probability of making various poker hands is given here:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/poker/

In just a single table room I would gamble rather than take $130 with only 20 minutes to go. It does seem like a bad deal.

I could make a computer program to calculate the exact probability of a hand being beaten after a certain number of hands. Not today, though. Maybe later if I have the mood for it.

Also don't think any deal could be considered awful dependent on what the money means to you. The more the money means, the more you should take the deal.

For example, if the high hand payout was $1Billion dollars and you were offered lol "only" $200million, you would probably be ******ed (or extremely rich) to not accept, even if the EV calc shows the guy is "fleecing" you.

For $200, whatever.

GimoG

I had never given it any thought before yesterday, but i was pleased to get the 130.
1. I stopped worrying about it
2. I saw the hoops the guy was going through--obstructing play--to get it and was glad to no longer be involved.

I disagree and that's kind of a nasty thing to say for advice/discussion. There's no reason for that. FWIW, I was happy with 130 and I also don't remember a hand that low winning in the past. Usually its quads or what it was the following hour aces full.