Wild $2-5 game going
game is $200-500 buy-in
chips are flying with several all-ins

this spot came up and started a debate afterwards that lasted for hours.

V1 stack $1600 in BB with K5 ss
V2 stack $1900 UTG with AK off no spade

UTG opens $35 which is small for this game
3 callers BB completes

flop $175 K 76 dss

BB leads $125
UTG pops it to $325
folded to BB who looks at UTG and says you want to flip for stacks ???
All-in and UTG insta calls

so this is basically a coin flip

debate was should UTG have folded to protect his stack and wait for a better spot? he's 55-45 here but once he loses is back to a starting stack and with 6 players closing in on 2k stacks it might be better to wait for a better spot.

debate is not on flipping stacks if we were in a game with a 2k buy-in but the fact that if felted you can only reload to $500 and are short stacked now against the other players.

other debate was should BB have shoved here knowing same ; that he is a small dog and if felted goes back to $500 stack

when if ever should outside circumstances (ie max buy-in) make you change your play?

we give up some equity to minimize variance but more so to maybe have a 80-20% spot down the road to play for stacks
example BB loses then very next hand is in a set over set hand and wins a 1k pot that could have been a 3k pot had he folded prior hand and protected his stack.

any math geek formula to calculate this
you $2-5 guys know what I mean after several hours you see some big stacks but you rarely see them butt heads in an all-in with each other.

IMO if you're not willing to take a 10% edge for stacks you should have already racked up. Future opportunity "what if" games should not apply to the present. What if we hold and still get the future opportunity with someone we now cover who's also got 3k?

+1 to this.

If your thought process involves worrying about getting unlucky when you’re a reasonable favourite, you should rack up. If you don’t have the bankroll to lose 2K on a hand when you’re playing 2K, you should rack up.
The chances to get your money in as a reasonable favourite don’t happen all the time and if you start passing up 60/40 or even 55/45 spots with money already invested it will be very hard to be a winning player.

After V1 bets $125 on the flop here there is $300 ($425 after AKo calls/raises) in the pot already and he has $1440 behind. Even if AKo (no ♠️) was flipped up I’m pretty sure mathematically he should still call here with the dead money factored in. It’s kinda close, but neither player made a mistake here.

I agree close on either side call or fold but

??? is does the fact that if felted you go to a effective short stack because you can't buy-in over $500 change the EV of the situation and factor into the equation

Nah, I don’t think so.
It’s something I’ve thought about before.
But you can double up again or get stacked as a big stack, or as a 100 bb stack.
Theoretically as a winning player you should get it in good more often so a big stack is slightly +EV for when you do play other big stacks, but this is incredibly minor EV.
I’ve got it in good and lost with 100bb’s enough times to be grateful that I wasn’t deep stack.
Most importantly, we should just aim to make the right play in every situation.

How does UTG know his opponent’s hand?

55-45 is huge. Casinos are built off of smaller edges.

: This is a pretty straightforward spot. It’s often going to be A-K UTG here and since big blind blocks K-Q suited ♠️, it’s very heavily weighted to A-Ko. 77-66 are possible, but less likely. Combo draws are possible, but far less likely.
I would just be hoping that UTG doesn’t have Ace of spades when he calls.

Its not 55-45

UTG doesn't have As, so it's 52.73 vs 47.27. If you make a living at poker and are rolled for the game, it's fine to get it in here every time, regardless of future stack size (no, there isn't a magic geek formula to calculate anything, because anyone at the table can leave at any time). There's also money in the pot already, which makes this a trivial commit for both players.

But if you're a rec, someone like me, I'm generally looking for higher edges to get my stack in. Rake also starts to matter if stacks aren't $2k, but closer to $300-600.

I'm hoping GG will chime in here and explain why it's not always a great idea to get it in here.

It’s not very smart of the big blind to make the comment about flipping for stacks, because if UTG believes him, it’s pretty obvious where the hand is at.
Otherwise, he would have a tougher decision.

Boom. We live for slight edges.

Good point on knowing the hand. I think when BB announces it's a flip UTGs read isn't that difficult but that's not to say it isn't an angle against a set or something. At any rate my comment was in response to OP assuming the read was correct.

Great point. I took the OP as fact without running it. The real numbers are closer to 5% which cuts our edge in half. We still have an edge but obviously we aren't REQUIRED to flip every time when it gets inside of 5% IMO. I guess I just take issue with the basis for deciding not to flip here being "possible future scenarios" since we create positive possible future scenarios when we win slightly more often than we diminish future scenarios when we lose. So just like we may get set of set for only $500 as a result of a loss here we could also get set over set for 3k+ if we win here.

...in 5, 4, 3, 2, ...

(but seriously, I always appreciate G’s angle of words)

run it twice

Since we are clairvoyant and know BB's exact hand, the EV of calling the shove is 3305*.5273-1240 = $502.73.

Enough said?

Yeah if you know BB’s exact hand, snap call.

But you don’t. Realistically you are an underdog vs his range when you gii with tptk for an 800bb pot

Flop is a call not a raise

Both players played the hands as bad as you can possibly play it

Ya, I agree here. When I said neither player made a mistake here what I should of said was bb isn’t wrong to call the shove at that point.

Mistakes: Big blinds calls 6x with k-5 suited, big blind leads flop huge with flush draw tpnk, UTG doesn’t just flat and raises huge super deep with only tptk.

After that the rest is standard. lol

all good points so far
and hears where I am stuck

I'll concede exact # 53-47% I guessed at 55-45

but not all pots are created equal

we could win 53 $400 pots and lose 47 $3000 pots for a net loss
even thou in the 100 hand sample we were a favorite each time
so do pot sizes, buy-ins and equity have a tipping point as to the correct play.

assume both are more than rolled for the game so not an issue.

I’m lost

This sounds like more future "what if" talk. Why would we consider other outcomes of similar hands with different pot sizes. Just focus on the pot you are currently in and make the best +EV decision possible. If pot size starts to prevent you from making the best decisions you should rack up and book the win or move down. Eventually you should be rolled enough that it doesn't bother you so much.

It all depends on your risk tolerance. You can set arbitrary rules for yourself, based on effective stack depth, e.g. look for at least 60/40 edge if stacks are 300bb+, but it's not really based on any math formula, just your individual risk tolerance. +EV is +EV

There are too many conditions here and it's all speculation at that point.

ok

so if I'm following
EV is Ev based on the hand in question
future hands don't influence

in going thru my records I see
I have no issues shoving with either side of the 53-47 for any stack size as you should have some fold equity added on
but I only make the call side in big pots when I feel I'm 65-35 or better

so I'm giving up some EV by doing so.

Thanks to all

not that it matters but BB showed his hand when he made the speech
and UTG insta called
I would have folded there to protect my over stack for possible better spot

And you would have thrown $500 in a fire.

If you're waiting for 65-35s then don't sit deep because you might not even be a winning player at that point.

Yeah, you’re torching money when you do this.
You are pointing a blowtorch at yourself snowman.

I only make that adjustment in games where you can only reload to $500 if felted.
1k or uncapped I don't

so I guess I convinced myself that once several players get deep in a 100bb buy in game I should change my play style

I'll make that adjustment