Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
3 flush board. Did I typo in the OP?
With the way this game has been playing, I expect that He will have hands like QT/T7 in his range and make tricky slowplay, turned two pairs, sets. I’ve seen people paying off big bets with even a hand like A9 here.
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Thought I saw 4 diamonds on board, don't mind me....even so, when you 1.5x pot and get raised, they just have it way too often. Either way, it's a limped pot so people's calling ranges facing large bets is going to be a lot slimmer. The last time I overbet a flush board and got raised and they didn't have the nuts was...well...basically never.
You said you overbet with the nuts twice and got called, so you haven't shown any overbet bluffs yet. By overbetting the river, you've announced to V that you have a big hand, and yet V is raising anyway. Sure, sometimes V will show up with a hand they shouldn't be raising like 2p/set/straight, but it's more likely they just have you beat. Need way more history to stack off 140bb in a limped pot with the 42nd nuts where only 4bb went in on the turn. $60 river bet and call a raise to $200-250 seems more optimal than risking your stack to squeeze out a few extra bucks from a call by making a bet that's unlikely to get called by much worse considering a straight almost always raises the turn. Betting smaller also makes V's more likely to bluff raise or "value raise" with a worse hand. A set or 2p may decide to raise a $60 bet instead of just calling an overbet.