Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
Two Plus Two Publishing LLC
 

Go Back   Two Plus Two Poker Forums > >

Notices

Live Low-stakes NL Discussion of up to 3/5 live no-limit, pot-limit and spread-limit Texas Hold'em poker games, situations and strategies.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 04-12-2018, 09:00 AM   #26
javi
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 7,453
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Imagine this radical idea:

Every time you get raised in a spot like this, you play the hand the best way you know how and actually record your results?

After about 25 of these hands where you continue after getting raised with TP or an overpair, you will have a pretty good idea if you are making or losing money instead of guessing. I already know the answer but most of you need to find our for yourselves.
I think what it comes down to is just your overall results with QQ-AA. Last time I had an online db of a few hundred thousand hands I filtered it this way once and I was an overwhelming winner with them. I play live pretty much like I play online so I know im not going around making epic folds with these hands, so if I can run 300bb/100 with AA under any scenario I'm not really too concerned with plugging some leak where I could fold it 1/100 times.
javi is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2018, 09:19 AM   #27
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by javi View Post
I think what it comes down to is just your overall results with QQ-AA. Last time I had an online db of a few hundred thousand hands I filtered it this way once and I was an overwhelming winner with them. I play live pretty much like I play online so I know im not going around making epic folds with these hands, so if I can run 300bb/100 with AA under any scenario I'm not really too concerned with plugging some leak where I could fold it 1/100 times.
You're making 3BB/hand with AA? That's nothing to brag about. AT least not in live poker. I dont know about online.

Either way, if you can increase the win rate with any hand by playing it better, why wouldnt you do that? To each his own I guess.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2018, 09:54 AM   #28
snowman
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: ON THE ROAD AGAIN
Posts: 1,494
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Your win rate will increase when you figure out how to win more money in pots, not just win more pots. One way to do that is to check the flop with TP or an overpair and let villain hit something.

Think about all the times you bet the flop with an overpair and get folds and take it down. Lots of those times you missed an opportunity to either let your opponent hit something he can call with or make him think his second pair is good and pay you off when he wouldve folded the flop.

2+2ers are stuck on the notion that playing ABC and bet bet betting your good hands is the way to win, and it will win, but if you want to crush you need to think outside the box.
I agree win the war don't worry about winning each battle.
this is good when you are the open raiser.
op's post he 3-bet pre
I prefer leading out here against 2 v's
op just missed the signal that he was beat and got married to his over pair.
hero has $45 pre and bet $60 assuming stacks of $300 he has 1/3 committed
V raises feeling good hero will call.
this should have been a red flag, dry board 10-7-2 rainbow
would V do this with top pair (A-10) ? smells like a set to me
snowman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-12-2018, 02:26 PM   #29
VipassanaMan
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 91
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

I'll tell you this much...if you've shown strength by raising or 3-betting preflop, bet the flop and get raised, or you get called, and then raised on the turn, the vast majority of the time your overpair is no good.

Obviously this is board and villain dependent. In your example the 10-7-2r board, I would have a hard time folding an overpair to a raise, but I might depending on who I'm against.

You have to be especially careful on boards with potential straights even heads-up. I lost two pots recently when my opponents called a decent sized bet on the flop with a gutshot and hit or they flopped a straight.

One issue with the TAG or conservative style that most people here play (myself included) is that many times the opponent knows where you are at, but you're flying blind. This means when the board comes raggedy or with straight potential you can be pushed around, but more often at these stakes they just have the hand.

Here's a recent example. I'd been card-dead and raised pre UTG with AA, I got one caller with about $180 in front of him at 1/2. The flop comes 8-6-5, I make a c-bet of about 2/3 of the pot, he calls. Should I bet again on the turn? I mean is he really calling that bet with an 8 here, or a gutshot?

I mean you can't always bet the flop, then check the turn when you're scared and give up, but I highly recommend you keep track of these situations, especially at 1/2 they simply aren't bluffing when they put their chips in.
VipassanaMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2018, 10:43 PM   #30
Calldown88
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 497
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by VipassanaMan View Post
One issue with the TAG or conservative style that most people here play (myself included) is that many times the opponent knows where you are at, but you're flying blind. This means when the board comes raggedy or with straight potential you can be pushed around, but more often at these stakes they just have the hand.
Off topic but you have to mix in 87/76/65/54s into your range, show them down sometimes and appear unpredictable, even though you're mainly playing a very strong range. Also mix in gappers, throw in a specific suited gapper combo you'll play for just that 1 day, etc.
Calldown88 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2018, 11:02 PM   #31
Phantomshark
old hand
 
Phantomshark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,447
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Problem #1 right there. Open to $15 and your results will be different. If they dont call when you open to $15, open more hands to $15. Train them to do what you want them to do. Don't do what the rest of the table is doing.
In my room, open raises of $15 will mostly get folded to, except for AA, KK, and maybe AK. The house takes $1 rake, and you get a profit of $3. If you want to risk $15 to win $3, or be in bad shape if called, I think that's a problem. Average open raise here is probably $6-$8, and will be called.
Phantomshark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2018, 11:12 PM   #32
VipassanaMan
enthusiast
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 91
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by Calldown88 View Post
Off topic but you have to mix in 87/76/65/54s into your range, show them down sometimes and appear unpredictable, even though you're mainly playing a very strong range. Also mix in gappers, throw in a specific suited gapper combo you'll play for just that 1 day, etc.
Absolutely, I even sometimes raise in early position with suited connectors and will open with scs or gappers in middle to late depending on image and table dynamics.

There are certain situations though that are pretty obvious on a probability basis that the solid or TAG player has a big pair or has big cards and missed.

For example if he 3! pre it's almost always a big pair, AK, AQ, how many TAGs 3! with hands like JTs, T9s, or 87s? Very rarely.

Also if I've observed a tight player who hasn't played a lot of hands raise I'll gladly take flops in position (especially if it seems like the pot will be heads up) and try to take away the pot with bluff raises when unfavorable flops come.

That's what makes answering this question so difficult because you can't simply toss the overpair when you get raised on the flop. Many times the players at these limits really do have it, but there are also players like me, who know that certain flops like say 4-5-7r or say J-8-4r will give the player overcards or A-high most of the time and can be taken away with a bluff raise. If your image is really good and you've been constantly been showing down winners your opponent will even say things like 'guess you hit your set' and throw away an overpair on the flop. Mostly though they will call the raise on the flop and fold to heavy turn action because they are good enough to know not to go broke with one pair.

Even if he suspects we're up to something many players will not be confident to take action like rebluffing the bluff raise, or continuing after heavy turn betting cause we've been solid ourselves and we probably do have him beat with a middling set or some type of two pair.

Like most situations in poker, it's very complex, especially when dealing with crafty players.

Last edited by VipassanaMan; 04-13-2018 at 11:19 PM.
VipassanaMan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-13-2018, 11:15 PM   #33
MikeStarr
Carpal \'Tunnel
 
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 7,978
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phantomshark View Post
In my room, open raises of $15 will mostly get folded to, except for AA, KK, and maybe AK. The house takes $1 rake, and you get a profit of $3. If you want to risk $15 to win $3, or be in bad shape if called, I think that's a problem. Average open raise here is probably $6-$8, and will be called.
Open $15 3-4 times per orbit and see if that changes. I already know the answer.
MikeStarr is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2018, 01:31 PM   #34
PokerPrince
old hand
 
PokerPrince's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,796
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by MikeStarr View Post
Problem #1 right there. Open to $15 and your results will be different. If they dont call when you open to $15, open more hands to $15. Train them to do what you want them to do. Don't do what the rest of the table is doing.
You want to open 7.5x as your standard at 1-2nl? Or is this just with premium holdings? Does not sound ideal.
PokerPrince is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2018, 03:32 PM   #35
snowman
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: ON THE ROAD AGAIN
Posts: 1,494
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPrince View Post
You want to open 7.5x as your standard at 1-2nl? Or is this just with premium holdings? Does not sound ideal.
my min open at $1-2 is 5x and depending on stacks at the table goes as high as 12x as a standard open.
after a couple orbits most start opening at your set price to open.
$2-5 is between 5x and 8x
snowman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2018, 03:36 PM   #36
Phantomshark
old hand
 
Phantomshark's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2005
Posts: 1,447
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

When I see someone who is standard opening to $12 or more at $2/$2, I immediately set my sights on them, because I know that anything over 5x is counter-productive, and they should be fresh meat. They rarely leave with money unless they are running like god.
Phantomshark is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2018, 03:55 PM   #37
PokerPrince
old hand
 
PokerPrince's Avatar
 
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 1,796
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman View Post
my min open at $1-2 is 5x and depending on stacks at the table goes as high as 12x as a standard open.
after a couple orbits most start opening at your set price to open.
$2-5 is between 5x and 8x
Are you deviating your opening size for hand strength? I can't imagine you'd want your standard open to be $20 at 1-2 or $40 at 2-5 with hands like JTs or 66 or KQo.

I'm always hyper observant of any preflop bet sizing tells from my opponents. If I see anyone opening an X and Y size, you can be sure I'm going to exploit that.
PokerPrince is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-14-2018, 04:00 PM   #38
snowman
old hand
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: ON THE ROAD AGAIN
Posts: 1,494
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by PokerPrince View Post
Are you deviating your opening size for hand strength? I can't imagine you'd want your standard open to be $20 at 1-2 or $40 at 2-5 with hands like JTs or 66 or KQo.

I'm always hyper observant of any preflop bet sizing tells from my opponents. If I see anyone opening an X and Y size, you can be sure I'm going to exploit that.
I do not

I have stumbled on $1-2 games with 8-10k on the table
plays more like a $2-5 with 1k buy-in

assuming $300n buy-in at 1-2 with high hand bingo hunters wanting to see flops yes I open $10 which is common in a lot of games I sit in
players will make snide comments but after a couple orbits becomes accepted as standard.
also as I see a lot of short buy-in games chasing high hand bingo it really irks them and entertains me
snowman is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 04-15-2018, 11:53 AM   #39
Calldown88
grinder
 
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 497
Re: The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

Quote:
Originally Posted by Phantomshark View Post
When I see someone who is standard opening to $12 or more at $2/$2, I immediately set my sights on them, because I know that anything over 5x is counter-productive, and they should be fresh meat. They rarely leave with money unless they are running like god.
I've literally never played a 1/2 game where the standard open for the table was less than 5x.
Calldown88 is offline   Reply With Quote

Reply
      

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off


Forum Jump


All times are GMT -4. The time now is 07:52 PM.


Powered by vBulletin®
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
Copyright 2008-2020, Two Plus Two Interactive