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The dreaded overpair vs. Raise The dreaded overpair vs. Raise

04-10-2018 , 04:15 PM
Not just my problem, I suppose, but I have been running really cold lately when it comes to getting hands like QQ+ that are overcards to the flop, open raising or 3-betting pre (no on else raising or re-raising, so I am the aggressor), then finding myself betting out the flop and facing a raise on silly boards like T72r for amounts that are becoming a sizable fraction of my stack and will likely result in an all in on the next street (assume 100-150bb deep)

In 1/2, I have had a mix of getting stacked and making good laydowns, but I have almost always run into sets.

I have decided that at these stakes a laydown is almost certainly the more profitable play, although I realize that if moving up or playing better opponents, this becomes quite exploitable.

The question is what people are generally thinking about in these situations (besides "sigh call"). Specifically, what sort of board textures you might elect to call vs. Raise (in general, I lean toward folding on drier boards bc what else would they have?). I know coolers happen and sometimes you do have to sigh call, but getting overstacked with one pair is something I see too much at these limits.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 04:32 PM
more info
your raises and 3-bet sizing vs stakes and limpers all ready in?

are u folding to raises a lot and V picks up on this?
are V's limp calling AA KK ? in this game?

whats V's raise sizing

1072 r is a dry flop are you thinking sets?
then reraise to find out where your at
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 04:41 PM
Pay more attention to the action pre flop. If it’s usually aggressive players, or players who hardly ever limp raising you on the flop it could be two pair, sets, top top, or bluff.

If it’s loose passives who are always limping call or over jam on them.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 04:48 PM
I'll give the same answer that I've recently given in another recent thread.

Unless you happily feel committed with your overpair (due to super small SPR or up against a maniac or whatever), if you're betting, you should mostly be betting to fold. If you don't feel comfortable folding to a raise (due to the opponent you are up against), you shouldn't be betting.

GimoG
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 04:55 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman
more info
your raises and 3-bet sizing vs stakes and limpers all ready in?

are u folding to raises a lot and V picks up on this?
are V's limp calling AA KK ? in this game?

whats V's raise sizing

1072 r is a dry flop are you thinking sets?
then reraise to find out where your at
Almost always $300 deep on 1/2 (I typically keep a backup stack to keep it fresh at this number). My open raises are usually ~$7 when this is standard to get 0-2 callers and a bit larger on looser tables. My 3bets are usually always pot (3x last bet plus other bets).

Hand last night- V1 open raise to $10, V2 calls, I go $45 w/ QQ in one of the blinds. Both V call, already telling me at least one of them is playing poorly. Flop is T74 two suit. I have a suit blocker. Pot is now ~135, I lead bet 60 on flop. V2 raises to 160. V3 folds (after hand says AK). At this depth it is fold or shove, cannot see where I am at with raise. V2 seems loose aggressive and could play any T like this or a draw, but typically I do not expect to get raised in this spot with my line with such hands. I decide to get it in and he flips 77, and afterward I just didn't feel good about the play (not just because I lost). But I am leaning toward finding better spots in the future.

Last edited by cmc0605; 04-10-2018 at 05:09 PM.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 05:03 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
If you don't feel comfortable folding to a raise (due to the opponent you are up against), you shouldn't be betting.

GimoG
What the actual hell does this mean
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 05:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I'll give the same answer that I've recently given in another recent thread.

Unless you happily feel committed with your overpair (due to super small SPR or up against a maniac or whatever), if you're betting, you should mostly be betting to fold. If you don't feel comfortable folding to a raise (due to the opponent you are up against), you shouldn't be betting.

GimoG
GG I agree I’m concept that people often treat a high pocket pair as something holier than a 1-pair hand. They start firing, hit resistance, and then remember 1-pair isn’t a great flop. Folding over pairs isn’t a big deal. I would make a habit out of it, especially heads up but when V tells you you’re beat well, you’re beat. Maybe focus on bringing less V’s to the flop with you. Much easier to ahead va 1-2 V’s than 5-6.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 05:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by matzah_ball
What the actual hell does this mean
In a nutshell, it means that bet/calling when not committed is pretty much the nut low line you can take. Either have the discipline to bet/fold, or if villain is such that you feel you'd be exploited too often by doing that then check/call (keeping his range extremely wide, with much better chance of you showing up with the winning hand by check/calling than bet/calling).

GcluelessNLnoobG
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 06:12 PM
When I c-bet and face a raise holding an overpair I will frequently call and fold if villain puts enough pressure on the turn. If villain is someone who will raise with only top pair, I will jam over the top on the flop. I usually call short-stack (50bb or less) jams over my c-bets with overpairs.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 06:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmc0605
Almost always $300 deep on 1/2 (I typically keep a backup stack to keep it fresh at this number). My open raises are usually ~$7 when this is standard to get 0-2 callers and a bit larger on looser tables. My 3bets are usually always pot (3x last bet plus other bets).

Hand last night- V1 open raise to $10, V2 calls, I go $45 w/ QQ in one of the blinds. Both V call, already telling me at least one of them is playing poorly. Flop is T74 two suit. I have a suit blocker. Pot is now ~135, I lead bet 60 on flop. V2 raises to 160. V3 folds (after hand says AK). At this depth it is fold or shove, cannot see where I am at with raise. V2 seems loose aggressive and could play any T like this or a draw, but typically I do not expect to get raised in this spot with my line with such hands. I decide to get it in and he flips 77, and afterward I just didn't feel good about the play (not just because I lost). But I am leaning toward finding better spots in the future.
Problem #1 right there. Open to $15 and your results will be different. If they dont call when you open to $15, open more hands to $15. Train them to do what you want them to do. Don't do what the rest of the table is doing.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 06:28 PM
Opponents & image are important. It's an easy fold when we're tight and V is a nit or super passive. Pay attention to how often opponents raise postflop.

Quote:
Originally Posted by twitcherroo
GG I agree I’m concept that people often treat a high pocket pair as something holier than a 1-pair hand.
When we raise pre and see a Q72r flop, we should be more willing to get stacks in with KK than with AQ. Partly because we beat AQ rather than chop with it, and partly because it blocks fewer top pair hands.

Selected range is just for demo purposes, but you get the idea:

Equity

53.40% QQ, 77, 22, KQs, AQo
46.60% KdKs

69.47% QQ, 77, 22, KQs, AQo
30.53% AdQs
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 06:40 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmc0605
what sort of board textures you might elect to call vs. Raise (in general, I lean toward folding on drier boards bc what else would they have?). I know coolers happen and sometimes you do have to sigh call, but getting overstacked with one pair is something I see too much at these limits.
To answer this question, I look at a couple of things. First, I'm more inclined to call IP than OP. I'll call on wetter boards than drier boards. I'll call more heads up vs. MW. Finally, what do I know about the villain.

If I'm out of position on a dry board when I got raised, 3 villains are left to act, and the villain is about 80 years old playing at 11 am on a Tuesday morning, I'm snap folding. If I'm in position on a SD and FD board HU and the villain is a 22 year old Asian who's been raising everything on the flop, I'm calling. Everything in between is going to be a judgement call.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-10-2018 , 11:24 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I'll give the same answer that I've recently given in another recent thread.

Unless you happily feel committed with your overpair (due to super small SPR or up against a maniac or whatever), if you're betting, you should mostly be betting to fold. If you don't feel comfortable folding to a raise (due to the opponent you are up against), you shouldn't be betting.

GimoG
I wish I knew who you were so I could show up and just bluff raise you to early retirement. Bet/folding is a fine play in certain situations but it should not be the standard unless you're playing an incredibly nitty opponent, and even at that should not be the standard on the flop.

In order to fold AA/KK/QQ on a 1072 board I need to know a couple of things:
1) My opponent does not have the guts to bluff
2) My opponent doesn't think I'm full of it (tight image vs unknown) and doesn't have A10-J10 in his range.

If you're not super deep relative to the pot size, getting it in with overpairs is never THAT bad and won't significantly harm your winrate, it's mainly an irrelevant move when you lose, and you make a lot of money when people overplay top pair. You can save a little money by folding to certain players but my standard play is to just get it in, especially with AA/KK. Even in spots where you're behind vs 2 pair your equity isn't that terrible.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-11-2018 , 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Calldown88
I wish I knew who you were so I could show up and just bluff raise you to early retirement. Bet/folding is a fine play in certain situations but it should not be the standard unless you're playing an incredibly nitty opponent, and even at that should not be the standard on the flop.

In order to fold AA/KK/QQ on a 1072 board I need to know a couple of things:
1) My opponent does not have the guts to bluff
2) My opponent doesn't think I'm full of it (tight image vs unknown) and doesn't have A10-J10 in his range.

If you're not super deep relative to the pot size, getting it in with overpairs is never THAT bad and won't significantly harm your winrate, it's mainly an irrelevant move when you lose, and you make a lot of money when people overplay top pair. You can save a little money by folding to certain players but my standard play is to just get it in, especially with AA/KK. Even in spots where you're behind vs 2 pair your equity isn't that terrible.
I've pretty much already answered this, but to repeat myself:

1) If you're going to bluff/raise me off every hand, then I'm not betting against you (and will instead let you barrel yourself into oblivion).

2) If we're not deep then it can often be the case where we are happily committed with TP; if so, bet/calling is fine.

GcluelessNLnoobG
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-11-2018 , 02:55 PM
I will throw out a radical idea....check flops with overpairs sometimes, especially when the $ is relatively deep?
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-11-2018 , 04:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
I will throw out a radical idea....check flops with overpairs sometimes, especially when the $ is relatively deep?
Of course I do this sometimes, same with TPTK (which this thread could also be about), but in general I'm betting for value heads up or 2-way. I'm playing everything much tighter with 3+ opponents.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-11-2018 , 05:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmc0605
Of course I do this sometimes, same with TPTK (which this thread could also be about), but in general I'm betting for value heads up or 2-way. I'm playing everything much tighter with 3+ opponents.
Your win rate will increase when you figure out how to win more money in pots, not just win more pots. One way to do that is to check the flop with TP or an overpair and let villain hit something.

Think about all the times you bet the flop with an overpair and get folds and take it down. Lots of those times you missed an opportunity to either let your opponent hit something he can call with or make him think his second pair is good and pay you off when he wouldve folded the flop.

2+2ers are stuck on the notion that playing ABC and bet bet betting your good hands is the way to win, and it will win, but if you want to crush you need to think outside the box.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-11-2018 , 05:43 PM
You don’t only have to check, you could size your bets to target specific hands and still deny equity. That’s how you make the perfect bet.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-11-2018 , 05:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Breadfish666
You don’t only have to check, you could size your bets to target specific hands and still deny equity. That’s how you make the perfect bet.
Nothing wrong with that.

PS..nothing wrong with betting an overpair either. I was just commenting about checking good hands in general.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-11-2018 , 06:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Breadfish666
You don’t only have to check, you could size your bets to target specific hands and still deny equity. That’s how you make the perfect bet.
I've been working on 1/4-1/2 pot c-bets w/ AK type hands on missed dry flops, checking wetter (mid-to-high connected cards) flops, I imagine it's okay to do similar things with TPTK or overs?

One suggestion above was to bet larger preflop than $7 as an open raise, say 7x BB. Maybe this is better in a lot of live 1/2 games, but I'm also not comfortable enough playing postflop to play for stacks with one pair, and I'd prefer to build the pot size in a coherent way (especially 150bb deep, I don't mind pushing at 40bb deep)
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-11-2018 , 06:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by cmc0605
I've been working on 1/4-1/2 pot c-bets w/ AK type hands on missed dry flops, checking wetter (mid-to-high connected cards) flops, I imagine it's okay to do similar things with TPTK or overs?

One suggestion above was to bet larger preflop than $7 as an open raise, say 7x BB. Maybe this is better in a lot of live 1/2 games, but I'm also not comfortable enough playing postflop to play for stacks with one pair, and I'd prefer to build the pot size in a coherent way (especially 150bb deep, I don't mind pushing at 40bb deep)
Generally you want to size up or down on the wet connected boards based on your villain. You have to take into consideration what range they have and the % that perceived range would call or fold facing your bet.

You want to size your raises pre flop larger to reduce stack to pot ratio so it’s easier for you to play for stacks with one pair hands.

Try looking for some threads on bet sizings on certain board textures and SPR.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-12-2018 , 12:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gobbledygeek
I've pretty much already answered this, but to repeat myself:

1) If you're going to bluff/raise me off every hand, then I'm not betting against you (and will instead let you barrel yourself into oblivion).

2) If we're not deep then it can often be the case where we are happily committed with TP; if so, bet/calling is fine.

GcluelessNLnoobG
This is the problem with your game. If you bet, you can be raised off of a hand. If you don't bet, and I don't have a strong value hand, I'm not going to bet. I will only raise a draw if you bet, otherwise I'm checking the draw.
I'm going to notice if you're checking all of your strong hands over to me and proceed with extreme caution. I'm only betting when it's checked over if I can beat you.

If your opponent would pay you off if he was holding your cards, paying it off is by default not a bad play. I don't really see a counter argument to this, but I'm the only one who's ever saying it. Sometimes you'll catch someone punting to you, like KK vs JJ and they open shove 2x pot on 1083 with 2 spades etc, "Oh, no overcards, ALL IN."
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-12-2018 , 04:23 AM
I've played a mix of 1/2, 1/3 and 2/5.

I find at the 2/5 games, players will very often raise the flop with TPGK or a weak overpair, so your QQ will actually be ahead of a decent chunk of their value raises on a T72r board, making it an easy hand to continue with (continue doesn't necessarily mean 3bet the flop, it just means don't fold).

But at 1/2, it's usually some bullsh*t hand like T2s or T7o that called a 5x raise preflop and flopped a miracle 2pr.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-12-2018 , 04:47 AM
I understand your frustration but the simple answer is "it depends". I can tell you this much I very rarely fold an overpair on all but the most heinous of runnouts, we're talking 4 flush + 4 to a straight where I simply cant be good even if my opponent was bluffing, and I've done quite fine results wise.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote
04-12-2018 , 08:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by javi
I understand your frustration but the simple answer is "it depends". I can tell you this much I very rarely fold an overpair on all but the most heinous of runnouts, we're talking 4 flush + 4 to a straight where I simply cant be good even if my opponent was bluffing, and I've done quite fine results wise.
Imagine this radical idea:

Every time you get raised in a spot like this, you play the hand the best way you know how and actually record your results?

After about 25 of these hands where you continue after getting raised with TP or an overpair, you will have a pretty good idea if you are making or losing money instead of guessing. I already know the answer but most of you need to find our for yourselves.
The dreaded overpair vs. Raise Quote

      
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