$1/$2

Hero has roughly $600 eff w both vils

Two early position limps
Primarily Vil limps in HJ
Hero has AA in the CO raises to $17
SB calls
folds to Vil who calls

Flop K J 4 Pot ~$50 after rake
SB checks
Vil checks
Hero bets $41
SB folds
Vil calls

Turn 7 Pot $132
Vil Checks
Hero bets $70
Vil Raises to $150
Hero calls

River 2 Pot $432
Vil bets $300


First things first. I wanted to point out that under normal circumstances at this point in the hand we SHOULD have a pretty incredible amount of valuable information to help us make up our minds as to the most profitable play in this situation. We should know what the table dynamic is, we should generally know how our Vil plays, we should know how we're playing and how Vil is reacting to it. We know all of the actions in the hand, and the sizing of all the actions. We should also now have 3 streets of physical tells, and a big bet river where we can attempt to illicit more tells. There's probably other information that I haven't listed which could also be valuable.

Now I also know that many of you are wondering why the hell I've deliberately left out any indication of any of these circumstances.

My challenge is can you construct a specific set of circumstances that would make you call and then a different set that would make you fold, or a list of criteria that would make you inclined to call, and then a different list that would make you inclined to fold?

I would just fold the turn if V is anything like the other 99% of the player pool that won't raise the turn without a super nutty hand. I would also bet less on the flop to get called wider than Kx+/QT

I think the turn is the main decision point for this hand. Either fold here if you think your beat now. I think calling the turn to fold the river is a leak.

So QT maybe? If you think he is a good player.
AQ maybe stretching, since with block alot of AQ
AK? Check call, check raise, bet river? Maybe

44, likely.
JJ, maybe, call to set mine.
KJ, check call flop? probably not.

Borderline, but I'm going to fold turn and move on.

this is a nonsense thread. The instructions you just gave us are to construct a read to justify whatever play.... Too many people do that and call it strategy imo.

This is a really cool idea. Instead of having people ask for reads you are constructing a reads range haha. Interested to see what people can come up with.

I'm glad to see at least one person thinks it's cool.

The reason I asked it this way was that this was the second hand I'd played at this table against an unknown. The hand directly before this I had AKo and won at showdown under a pretty bizzarre circumstance, and the unknown (besides this and the AA hand) vil was involved in both hands. I'll also cave and say that I was playing directly next to this table for most of the night, and I knew that there was an incredible amount of aggression, and 4 stacks of over 2k.

I do feel that the turn is a fold a fairly high % of the time, however that when the turn is not a fold, which in this spot I was pretty sure that his range was wide enough to not be, I really needed to make a judgement call on the river taking as much information as possible into account.

We'll see if any relevant responses come back.

This turn is a pretty easy fold except against the odd wild player, no?

We are behind KJ (9),K4s(2),K7s(2),J7s(2),44(3). (18combos) Perhaps should be including K7o,J7o.


Kh2h-KhTh,Ah4h,6h4h-4h3h,QhTh,Qh9h,Th9h (15 combos assuming we don´t have the Ah)

With a specific read that he would semibluff raise the turn with these hands we probably should call the turn, eval. on river. Sizing tells would help. If he wanted us to fold the turn wouldn´t he raise more? Obv. folding to a on river. If we know he will bluff all his missed heart draws, we call if the pot odds justify it.

Board: KsJh4d7h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 33.33% 33.33% 0.00% { AdAs }
MP3 66.67% 66.67% 0.00% { 44, KJs, K4s, QhTh, Qh9h, Th9h, Ah4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 4h3h, KJo }

If we can add KQ,KT type hands to V´s range (perhaps we have some kind of read that he will try to push us off 1 pair) it becomes a clear call on the turn.

Board: KsJh4d7h
Equity Win Tie
MP2 61.92% 61.92% 0.00% { AdAs }
MP3 38.08% 38.08% 0.00% { 44, KTs+, K4s, QhTh, Qh9h, Th9h, Ah4h, 6h4h, 5h4h, 4h3h, KTo+ }

Most players have sizing, physical tells so we can do much better than this.

Unless he's shown he c/r's turns as bluffs I'd fold.

Also, 80% PSB otf narrows his range too much for me. I don't want to fold out KQ/KT,Jx. I'd bet more like $30-$35.

Exactly, and this is a perfect example of a hand where strategy renders tactics completely trivial, if not irrelevant.

There's a nugget of hope here, in that OP is starting to think ahead. It's just kind of hard to avoid the conceptual herd of elephants pooping in the living room.

Look, OP. When villain bet the turn, you stopped and asked, OK what's he betting with. Good. Next, you start to range him. That's not quite so good. Sometimes, people aren't on a range. Sometimes, they are either on the nuts, or absolutely nothing at all.

When you encounter that situation, look at your cards. If you have the nuts, you're gtg. If not, you have a bluffcatcher, and you basically have to decide how often he's bluffing. Yes, AA is a bluffcatcher here. You do not have a good hand.

Now, whether that is truly the situation here, and if so, how often he is bluffing are questions open to debate. And you have to have a read to settle those questions. If you don't have a read on this particular player, you have to go with your "default read," in other words, the profile of a typical 1/2 player that forms the basis of your overall strategy at 1/2.

Aw now I feel bad. Here's a less condescending answer.

When you're getting a read on a player, you are formulating a theory. The purpose of a theory is to predict the future; in this case, to predict the effect of your poker plays.

Theories vary in complexity. Hurricane tracking models are a lot more complex these days than they were when I was a kid, taking into account a great deal more parameters. They can also vary in depth. When I was a kid, we knew hurricanes turned right, but we didn't know why. Now we do.

Important concept: the depth of a theory correlates with its validity. Now that we know why hurricanes turn right, we can now generally predict when they are going to turn.

Your theory on a villain can be more or less deep.
1. This guy is always on JJ+,AQs+. This is a very superficial behavioral analysis, and it does have validity, but we can do better. OK he's probably got jacks. But what is he going to do with them, and when is he going to do it?
2. Among the major player types, this guy is a nit. A bit more depth here, to the extent that typing players like this has validity. If it does, it's kind of a "black box" theory, there is more to be had. Is he the sort of nit that gets sticky with aces, or the kind who will fold them to a big enough bet on a scary enough board?
3. This guy is here for fun, but he's playing scared money. He wants to be able to play as long as possible with his little teeny stack. He is willing to wait for premium hands, and is willing to make small value bets early in the hand, but is afraid of making large value bets later in the hand regardless of hand strength. He will fold to a large bet with non-nutted hands, except for some reason he thinks any paired ace is the nuts. This is a pretty durn good theory imo. You get there by ranging him alright, and by looking at his tells. But also by looking at his age, and his affect, and his table chatter. And, maybe by making friends with him, and talking to him.

So, one way of answering your question is, to come up with every conceivable range, and append the correct play to each entry. This would be a pretty complex theory, and maybe that would give it some validity.

Kind of doubt anybody is going to take that bait, though,* because complexity does not precisely equal validity. Depth does.** The question here is, "what is this guy thinking." We cannot bypass that question. By constructing a "range of ranges," we are not bypassing reads, we are taking a very superficial approach to reads, and doubling down on it.

If you ask anybody about their "default read," you won't get a lot of detail -- you can't, everybody is different -- but you'll get a lot of depth, as to who these people are, and why they play poker, and what they are thinking when they do things like check-raise.

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*Except for Kookie, an unusually hale fellow
**Beyond that, you'd have to be carrying a supercomputer around in your head, and nobody has that. Well, wj94 does but the rest of us don't.