Memphis TN. 1/3 Mississippi straaaadle.

V (800): The one guy I can tell knows what he's doing. Early 40s white guy, knows all the dealers, playing a golf game on his phone. Very patient, good bet sizing to exploit chasers. Utilizes pot control and position. Doesn't limp much, most hands are open raiser calls, or raises himself.

H (600): Other than one blunder, that luckily I didn't have to show, I'm just showing down solid hands. Winning image amongst a bunch of crazy people betting away their rents.



Hero Button with AA, V SB

Hero raises to 25, V calls, and along with 2 other limpers.

Flop (100): Q 6 3r
Checked to Hero, bets 55. (Right or wrong, I bet smaller when the flop is so dry)
Only V calls

Turn (210) 5 completes rainbow.
Checked to hero, Bets 120, V calls

River (450): 2
Checked to Hero....?
Value bet again? I feel as though I'm only targeting KK, or some Q. From him, only AQ, but thats me praying.

Can you clarify preflop? How much was the straddle and who made it? Did villain limp before you raised?

There were two limpers, no straddle. V, was small blind.

Do you think villain would flat QQ on SB because he's OOP? If so, then I'm checking. If not them I'm shoving.

Vbet

definitely vbet

No rule saying it has to be half pot, make it 140 if he folds everything to 200.

Although we know the majority of V's range "should" be Qx, is he capable of calling off a ~$300 bet here with KQ/QJ? A lot of players are, as on this river, most people would be checking back AQ+ and sometimes sets. It is possible he can show up with 66/33/54, but I wouldn't expect him to cold call $25 from the SB with 33 or 54 very often.

Bet. Personally I'd shove since it's pot sized anyway

Obvious V bet. If we think KQ is in his range a smallish bet might be best since there are 12 combos of KQ and only 6 of AQ.

We are sitting in a pretty bad seat (deep, OOP to the only competent player at the table), no?

Raise more preflop to narrow the field, imo.

Thanks to going multiway, we've now setup an SPR of ~6 where it will be quite easy to get stacks in over 3 streets, and yet we gave 3 opponents terrific implied odds of 27+ to stack us.

I'm cool with the smaller sized flop bet on this dry board.

By betting the turn, we've now setup a river where we have less than a PSB left. Can we fold river if Villain bets into us? Do we think a competent Villain is going to play for $600 stacks with a worse hand? I would have checked back the turn for pot control as well as ensured I get paid off a second street by this guy / not loose my stack when I'm not good.

I find it very hard to bet/fold with just a PSB left. But I'm guessing Villain is never doing a check/raise bluff as he'd probably think we're committed with any bet. There is 4-to-a-straight on board but none of us should have a 4x, so a bet might even look bluffy. I probably do a small 1/3rd PSB and fold to a raise, just targetting the narrow KK/AQ range.

ETA: Seems like everyone else is ok with the turn bet? Against a competent Villain, aren't we fairly cool with ensuring just 2 streets?

GcluelessNLnoobG

Definitely going for three streets here. This is 1/3, even competent villains will call down with worse.

I'd probably go with about $160 on the river.

I was surprised by the result of the hand. I figured he'd show up with some Q type hand after the flop. Gotta love 1/3 poker. Dude I thought was pretty good, shows up with KK here.

Just looking to see if this hand was worth 3 streets of value.

So did you bet the river?

I bet a carefully placed 165 lol. And he called.
5 sessions prior to this I would never have bet the river with just AA... So I'm learning to extract more value when I can.

Nice bet, well played. Was gonna say $150 sounds good. Knowing he had KK now you could probably have shoved and still got a call but hindsight is 50/50.

I like 1/3 PSB when you know their range is likely capped so well done.

To answer your question (which you kinda answered yourself by betting), yes this hand is definitely worth three streets of value with the way the board ran out. No flushes and he should never have a 4 here. If he flopped a set and was patient enough to check/raise the river it makes for an expensive bet/fold but good for him if he's that disciplined.

the only hand that beats you that check calls twice is 54. its time to go to value town baby.

definitely value betting here. don't see how he shows up with a straight here. very few 2p combos that make sense, especially from a solid player. a set is possible, but if he has one, he didn't play it like he has one.

i'd bet what i think he can call even if it is small relative to the pot. bet $150 and fold to an all in.

Well, I'll make one more attempt at arguing for 2 streets of value.

After the flop, Villain might have a fairly wide range of hands. They range from the super strong (like a set), to decent (like KK/AQ as he does here), to mediocre (77) to complete airball. Of those four categories of hands, there's only one where we'd like to put in a bet on the turn and another on the river; all the others are more profitable to check behind on the turn. No?

GimoG

Hard to see him floating with air on the flop just to check the turn. He also has some draws here like 4-5.

All told, if I'm trying to get two streets of value from in position id prefer flop and turn to flop and river against all but the bluffiest of villains. We have a one pair hand and almost any hand except AQ has some decent equity against us. Make them pay to see it.

I didn't mean to ignore your post. I actually took it to heart. I do a lot of bluff catching, it's one of my favorite moves. And quite often, on such a dry board, I'll do it. In pure openness, I was in the middle of my arrogant streak on this one, where I just pump away. AA, I very rarely play bluff catcher (Obviously depends on the board). I'm trying to get more aggressive with my value hands, while not simply playing AA with 3 streets of value every time. So just checking to see others thoughts for this run out. After the hand, V said he thought he got away easily on this one... and that bothered me a bit because I almost checked behind. AND!! I can't say that with KK I'd have played differently if I were him... 90% I'll 3 bet with KK in his spot however.

If we're ahead on the turn, we're a 90%+ fave against most hands.

But, also villain dependent. If this guy is competent enough to not pay off a pot control line on the river with 77, or never bluffing a busted draw, then giving free cards ain't great; betting to protect our equity against the hands we're crushing while getting paid off by the hands that could pay us off might be best.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Yeah... I'm more of a flop, turn value better as well. Working on the river.