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Does maths say call?

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05-20-2016 , 07:03 AM

undaDISGUISE

centurion

Join Date: May 2011 Posts: 116

$1/3 nlh live

UTG limps, MP raises to $12, I 3b to $35 with 6d4d, I didn't see SB was short and he shoves for $90. Everyone else folds and the action is on me.

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05-20-2016 , 07:18 AM

Shamway99

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 3,348

Math says rather call. Avoid such 3bets and you will not have to call AI with 30% eq.

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05-20-2016 , 07:50 AM

cAmmAndo

The Situation

Join Date: Nov 2008 Posts: 4,727

After rake you need 29% equity to call to break even. Against a range of TT+ and AK you are 27%. Against a range of 99+ and AQ+ you are 30%.

Given that he's cold 4! And you have no other reads you shouldn't assume a wider range so the absolute best you can hope for is a break even call and prob slightly -EV.

Pay attention and tighten up is the lesson here though IMO.

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05-20-2016 , 08:18 AM

ibelieveyouoweme$80k

LLSNL FF Champ '13

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 12,868

Quote:

Originally Posted by cAmmAndo

Call. Show when you lose. Improve your image and print money.

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05-20-2016 , 10:47 AM

erpdlof

journeyman

Join Date: Feb 2016 Posts: 241

math says fold pre the first time

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05-20-2016 , 11:06 AM

Playbig2000

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,322

idk why this is a math question. There's no math involved since we don't have a hand. What are you banking on, flopping a flush?

a bad case of FPS.

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05-20-2016 , 12:00 PM

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,136

Quote:

Originally Posted by cAmmAndo

+1

Since it's close, I would call for the metagame benefits of showing that we just 3bet/called with 6 high.

GcluelessNLnoobG

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05-20-2016 , 12:27 PM

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Does maths magic say call?

Wizardry.

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05-20-2016 , 12:34 PM

Playbig2000

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,322

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

+1

Since it's close, I would call for the metagame benefits of showing that we just 3bet/called with 6 high.

GcluelessNLnoobG

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05-20-2016 , 12:44 PM

#10

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,136

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

You don't think it's close at this point?

Facing a cold 4bet is typically a strong range, but this is counteracted by it only being for $90 in 1/3 where stacks can go in extremely light at this depth (heck, you could argue we're flipping against some of his range).

ETA: Kinda an interesting stove in that if we start with a baseline of AA/KK/AK it's pretty much a snap call at this point, however as we expand that range by adding other pocket pairs our equity actually goes down (although still close enough where calling is ~breakevenish).

Gstovingsomerangessaysit'sprettycloseG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 05-20-2016 at 12:53 PM.

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05-20-2016 , 12:57 PM

#11

Playbig2000

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Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

his range is crushing us, he is shoving over a 3 bet. It's a lot narrower than if he did it over a single raised pot.

as cam suggested, it's break even at the very best for us. I would even take out AQ from his range.

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05-20-2016 , 01:02 PM

#12

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

ETA: Kinda an interesting stove in that if we start with a baseline of AA/KK/AK it's pretty much a snap call at this point, however as we expand that range by adding other pocket pairs our equity actually goes down (although still close enough where calling is ~breakevenish).

Reason is that you're adding more hands that dominate 64s and taking our equity away from V's AK range.

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05-20-2016 , 01:04 PM

#13

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

GG made a good point that if our EV is somewhere between negative few dollars to breakeven, then the value of meta image makes the call worthwhile.

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05-20-2016 , 01:06 PM

#14

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,136

Ya, as soon as we start adding in more crushing pairs > 66 it gets worse, but then gets better as we add in smaller pairs we're doing ok against. Still, rare spot where expanding a range makes things worse for a bit.

Against 22+/AQ+ (fair range?) we're at almost 31%, so pretty clear call against that. A read would be helpful.

Gcoursewillbehardtomakeupfortheinitialmistakewemad eG

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05-20-2016 , 01:07 PM

#15

Playbig2000

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,322

Quote:

Originally Posted by Richard Parker

GG made a good point that if our EV is somewhere between negative few dollars to breakeven, then the value of meta image makes the call worthwhile.

in 1/3?

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05-20-2016 , 01:10 PM

#16

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,136

If anything is ~breakeven then why not?

I actually wish I could go back in time and participate in preflop gambool gambool shooting (which I've never done), a fairly big mistake on my part regarding image building methinks.

GcluelessNLnoobG

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05-20-2016 , 01:13 PM

#17

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

In the worst case scenario in which we are up against QQ+, H has 20.5% equity.

$66 pot + $89 shove.

If we call, our EV is $13.53 + $18.25 - $43.73 = -$11.95.

If that's worst case scenario, I am fine with it.

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05-20-2016 , 01:16 PM

#18

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

FWIW, 3betting 63s is obviously -EV on its own.

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05-20-2016 , 01:30 PM

#19

Playbig2000

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,322

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

If anything is ~breakeven then why not?

GcluelessNLnoobG

if it's break even, than we don't make money on it in the long run. It only increases unnecessary variance.

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05-20-2016 , 01:37 PM

#20

Richard Parker

banned

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 13,949

Which part of meta image did you not get?

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05-20-2016 , 01:38 PM

#21

gobbledygeek

Poet Laureate of LLSNL

Join Date: Jul 2006 Posts: 36,136

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

if it's break even, than we don't make money on it in the long run. It only increases unnecessary variance.

Well, against a lot of reasonable ranges it is better than breakeven, so that's good enough for me.

And if it improves our image at all, then that alone is good enough for me in the ~breakeven case. Ya, it's only 1/3NL. But so what, you don't think anyone at the table just saw we 3bet/called with 6 high and that won't possibly encourage poor decisions against us in the future?

Gsnapcallingandtabling6highlikeitisthenutsG

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05-20-2016 , 02:30 PM

#22

Playbig2000

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 11,322

Quote:

Originally Posted by gobbledygeek

we have no read on him. so he gets assigned a skinny default range.

People are not even paying attention to your 3bet range. They see cards. They bet cards. Yeah there are a couple winners here and there but it's just gamble gamble why gamble when we can do better.

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05-20-2016 , 02:40 PM

#23

RAHZero

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,706

Ignoring rake, there's $143 in the pot ($3 from limper + $12 from MP + $35 from your 3b + $90 from SB + $3 from BB) and it's $55 more for you to call, so you need $55/($143+$55) or ~27.8% equity to call here. You have 29.66% against a range of just QQ+ and AK, so this is a slightly +EV call (probably breakeven with rake factored in). Call, show the hand down regardless, then stop 3-betting IP with hands like 64s and use your image to get paid off when you actually have a real hand.

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05-20-2016 , 02:40 PM

#24

KKingDavid

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 591

The math is a toss up. We need 29%. We have 25-35% depending on how wide we stretch V's range, given no reads here. Calling v. folding doesn't matter very much. This decision has very little effect on long term win rate, except:

1. Impact on hero's emotional state... Will you tilt if calling and losing here? Be honest about how losing $90 (or winning) will affect your play.

2. Hero's image. Is there a specific image you seek to establish? Calling and showing may help; it may hurt if your image goal is something opposite.

Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

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05-20-2016 , 02:41 PM

#25

RAHZero

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2005 Posts: 3,706

Quote:

Originally Posted by Playbig2000

idk why this is a math question. There's no math involved since we don't have a hand. What are you banking on, flopping a flush?

a bad case of FPS.

Any situation where we're HU, closing the action, and facing an all-in bet is just a math problem.

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