Hero ($300 ) has only been at the table for a half hour and has no history with villain.
Villain is 30ish bg with around $300 in front of him. Neatly stacked.

OTTH

Villain limps utg
3 other limpers too
Hero in big blind looks down at J J

I raise to $33 which sounds high but I just watched a $23 raise from BB get 4 snap calls a few hands ago.

Villain UTG raises to $75. It folds back to me, and I call.

Flop ($160)comes AJ 7

I bet $100

He jams

Does he ever just have AK here or is it AA every time?

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Depending on who it is, not all the time . If he's a tight player AK AA is a good possibility. But could be KK or even QQ for some . I mean I've seen players around me 3! Jacks like that . But like stated before depends what kind of player he is .

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Why did you donk?

Pre is probably just a fold

Flop donk bet is absolutely unspeakably terrible. Losing lots of money.

Can't fold as played, come on.

this hand belongs in BBV.



even if he shows you AA i still think you have to call.

although limp/raise from UTG is probably AA.....call me crazy but you could actually fold this preflop. neat stacks 30s. he has AA.

i mean you could fold but the problem is if you fold and are wrong you hate yourself but if you call and are wrong you can just chalk it up to a bad beat.

You make a massive raise and he min 3 bets you in the UTG. This is AA too often to call an unknown that has neat stacks and is topped off at 100 BB.

I like how we've evaluated how loose this table is and what type of sizing we can get away with, and this sizing enables us to get in 10% of our stack so that we can stack off postflop on non-horrible boards. Nice, imo.

I fold to the limp/reraise. Unless I see a history of someone limp/reraising with something other than AA/KK, it's AA/KK (which, BTW, is exactly how I'd play AA/KK at this loose table in EP).

Have no idea why we bet the flop which might allow KK/QQ to get away. SPR is like lol 1.5 so we can easily let a street check thru (heck, perhaps even two). I check the flop and if he checks behind I'd probably donk a small amount on the turn to setup a river shove (or perhaps even check again as I could play for stacks on one street with a slight overbet).

As played, I call the jam. If we're calling preflop, we must think he has Ax some of the time, and Ax probably does just jam here (noting that AA probably flats here mostly on this fairly dry board).

GcluelessNLnoobG

In my experience in live low stakes no limit, early position limp re-raises are usually KK or AA, and almost never AK. As played, you should of raised smaller pre-flop and folded to the limp re-raise. Villain showed up with AA?

If people are stationing so hard pre-flop, why bloat a pot if you're sure you'll get 4 callers? (you're not gonna like any flop that doesn't include a J in it 5 ways) At that point, I'd just wait to make hands and play pretty straight forward, raise a normal size and play it well post flop.

fold pre

that is probably not correct...

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

8,910 trials (Exhaustive)

board: AJ7

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
JJ	4.34%	387	0
AA	95.66%	8,523	0

Is villain's shirt tucked in?

The donk lead makes 0 sense. Snap call now


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Fold pre. This is almost always KK or AA. You aren't getting the right odds to set mine and you will have no clue what to do on a flop with all small cards and he cbets.

Fold pre.

Don't donk, let him bet QQ/KK.

AP snap call.

If the read of KK+ is correct, it's absurd to fold pre. You're getting 4:1 immediate and will instastack him on any flop that gives you but not him a set (and you can fold flop with 100% certainty if you miss). You've got way more than the 8.5:1 you need to call.

Incidentally, if KK+ is correct, then you should never 4-bet AA and call the 3-bet with your entire continuing range.

As it turns out, flop is a giant facepalm, but we didn't know that preflop so we sigh and reevaluate. Again, if KK+ is correct, I don't think donking is as bad as people say it is. He's 2:1 to have KK now and it's unclear whether he cbets KK. A balanced donking range here where you're going to bluff donk a fraction of your whiffed small pairs, plus sets, is worth considering.

In case it wasn't obvious, I strongly question the read of KK+. Maybe it's just local idiocy but this is like 22-TT, AQo-ish+, ATs-ish+ quite often where I am. People just think the BB is being a dick and LRR stuff they're mad they openlimped with.

How do you have way more than 8.5:1 odds? I also agree that donking isn't a bad play. If we've narrowed his range to big pocket pairs he probably folds KK and QQ here. I actually kinda like the donk here. Wayyyyyyy better than checking and let him bet KK?????????

He pretty much clicked it back pre. Not folding getting that price.

This is not always aces but it's aces a lot.

For 100bb is a shove or fold pre. You don't have the direct nor the implied odds to call and try to hit a set. If you call pre should be with the clear intention to gii on favorable flops but l clearly think this is a mistake given the stack sizes.
AP: I don't see what the flop lead is meant to achieve, but you'd have to gii anyway so in this particular case it doesn't make much difference. I'd get it in because you don't have significant history with the villain to be sure he only does this with aces. In some games people do it just out of spite against the BB squeeze with a wider range that just AA and KK.
But just note that against opponent's percieved range and with these effective stack sizes you're not accomplishing anything with the donk lead play - you'd just give him a chanse to get away from KK and QQ.
TLDR: with these stacks fold or shove pre depending on your opponent. The flop lead is not a good idea given this particular situation.

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you are neglecting the fact that flopping a set does not equal winning the hand and getting villains stack. you really need a minimum of 12:1 odds to set mine and only then when you're positive villain has KK+. you might flop a set on a monotone board against AA with nfd. you might flop a set with an ace vs KK and not get paid. this is a fold pre.

when you flop the nuts villain still has at least 10% to win with AA. (unless you flop quads obv). he has 14% to win with backdoor flush draw too.

Lmao +1

Unless I'm mathing wrong, if we ignore the limper money (which we can assume is rake / BBJ / tip), we're only getting about 2.5:1 preflop, and only about ~7:1 IO overall with these stacks. Given that he might be able to get away from KK on a A high board, and given that on J high flops he sucks out on us by the river 8% of the time (which is a non-trivial amount), not to mention the set-over-set / he runner runners a flush or straight / etc., we're getting nowhere near the IO we need, imo.

GcluelessmathingnoobG

Huh? We don't want him to bet KK on an A high board when we have a set?

All a flop donk does is threaten his whole stack and allow him to possibly make hero folds with KK-. Given that the SPR is a lol 1.5 (where we could somewhat reasonably get stacks in on just one street), I see no benefit to betting the flop (and perhaps even the turn unless the board starts producing more scare cards to kill the action).

Gflopdonkishorrible,imoG

Easily could be AK, more combos of that than AA

Agree that checking flop is a good idea

With no history on villain, it's hard to narrow him to only AA. AK, AQ, and even 77 are possible here. KK or QQ are outside possibilities. It would take more information than a half hour of play for me to fold middle set here.

"Huh? We don't want him to bet KK on an A high board when we have a set?

All a flop donk does is threaten his whole stack and allow him to possibly make hero folds with KK-. Given that the SPR is a lol 1.5 (where we could somewhat reasonably get stacks in on just one street), I see no benefit to betting the flop (and perhaps even the turn unless the board starts producing more scare cards to kill the action)."

Gflopdonkishorrible,imoG

imo he would bet the flop with KK the same way he would bet AA. Without a spectacular read on the guy you still wouldn't know where you're at. He also may bet the same way on the turn. Then what do you do?

I guess if you already have in your mind that you want to get your stack in, then a donk is obviously not the best play.