1/3 nl

Hero 300, just bought back in after losing $850 in 2 hands prior. AA got cracked when v2 hit trip Q on river after getting it all in on Q high dry board (v had QTo). AJs lost to J7o after getting it all in on J56r board, runout was 77. So hero is definitely seen as steaming.

V1 350 straddles. Pretty straightforward but definitely over bets tptk type hands. Saw him shove $200 Otr with KK on JJT94 (3 hearts) board , got called , and somehow won. He has been straddling every time, and raised prob 95% of his straddles. Haven't seen anyone reraise his straddle yet.

V2 covers. Besides him cracking my aces, I've seen him shove with 2nd pair twice that I know of. Not much relevance in this hand other than he put some dead money in (I eventually stacked him, so all is right with the world haha)

Anyway, otth

V1 (350) straddles $6 UTG.
V2 (1000+) calls $6
2 other limpers
Hero (300) otb with AKss just limped waiting for V1's raise
Both blinds call
V1 raises to $17
V2 calls
Folds to hero
Hero makes it $50 (probably should have went a little higher)
Folds to v1 who tanks for about 2 minutes and calls
V2 folds

Because of the tank I am putting V1's range at mostly mid high pairs, probably 99-JJ maybe some AK AQ combos. Because of the way he has been playing I think he obviously is reraising AA KK and probably even QQ.

Flop (135) Q T 4r (1spade)
V checks
Hero (250) I am not liking this flop AT ALL, because I think he basically is 50/50 whether or not he flopped a set with a small chance he has AQ.

However, checking in this spot, IMO, just says "hey, I have AK go ahead and bet your 9's on the turn and I'll fold"

So at this point I'm thinking my hand looks a lot like AA KK, and I decide to go with that story and I bet $125

V tanks for about 30 seconds and shoves

FML

Hero has $125 remaining

Does anyone fold after putting 2/3 of their stack in this pot?

Does the tank indicate less than a set?
Obviously I'm behind, but I could have anywhere from 4-10 outs plus bd flush draw

Getting 4-1 with 2 cards to come

The button LRR is just FPS imo. Why not just raise more yourself, like say $30?

Spew as played.

The spot is fine but why 3bet so small? The line is fine, he's always raising his straddle so you can expect a caller ahead and plan to squeeze big with AK, but just 3xing here is terrible and is where this went wrong.

id usually raise to $35 the first time around. if you limp raise here, limp raise to $120 to $150 and get it in on almost all flops

If he really is raising is straddle 95% I am not opposed to limp reraising in this spot. You sizing should of been much larger 65-75 with the plan of stacking off. I don't think we need to range villan so strongly. He has not been challenged yet and could be calling much wider.

We have 4 outs twice plus back door draws, we can't fold now as played. I prefer larger 3 bet and planning to jam any flop.

Yeah he was really raising every straddle, I actually don't remember him not raising, but might have missed one or 2

if there is a 95% chance V is going to raise his straddle as indicated by him RAISING EVERY SINGLE STRADDLE ALL DAY LONG then why on earth do I want to raise a premium hand if I'm on the button. Seriously WTF???

So limping here is optimal so you can 3-bet him and isolate dead moneys. This is something I just don't understand on 2+2. Lets say you are sitting on the right of some ABC rec-fish who 100% always grabs a stack of chips to raise and practically raises every time before it's even his turn to act (when he does this action).

Lets say you are in the SB and you have AA and as action is coming to you you see he has grabbed his stack of chips (just like he has done all day) to raise. WHy on earth would you raise when you are 95% confident he is going to raise. Limping here so he can raise is NOT FPS. It is utilizing the reads and profiles you have spent all day generating to maximize your value.

okay, end rant.

As played, our 3-bet is too small, we need to squeeze it to $125. Table thinks we are tilting so tilt . Then we can jam 100% of all flops. As played, your $50 preflop raise makes post flop difficult. Because of your image, V is never putting you on AA or KK and is putting you on whatever he can beat. His calling range is exclusively pockets, AQ, KQ, AK type hands. Out of that entire range, majority of it is going to like this board.

So I actually wouldn't even bother with a c-bet here. I'd either just jam it all-in on the flop or I would check back and hope to bink. But if we c-bet here, odds are just too good V jams it on us because of our losing image

as played, I almost think it's a coin flip EV wise whether we go ahead and get it all in and hope to bink one of our 4 - 10 possible outs or we just fold and save $125.

I think it's meh either way, and if one is better than the other, it's not better by all that much EV wise.

Going back to preflop, if we had a stronger image and post flop fold equity, then I like the $50 raise. But because of our weak image, I think we just need to 3-bet bigger ($125-ish) so we can jam 100% of all flops.

Grunch
Without even reading this hand I'm torn about how to play optimally against this V. Our ****ty image would usually mean to value bet hard and thinly. But V has shown that he makes a lot of betting mistakes. Playing passively against this guy makes a lot of sense, but if he's also making calling mistakes then I would choose a hard value bet light line against this guy.

PF: I hate your plan to C/R. If you had 100bbs then that would be ok, but your pretty deep so just raise your own hand here. As played you should be raising larger (especially so given your tiltly image).
OTF: I like the Cbet, but since we're obviously committed here V can't be bluffing. Calling and folding both seem bad to me. So I suppose I call to show down my A high AI. If you're not rolled for the game folding seems best.

i call here... and yes you behind a lot of the time

I think 125 on the flop is overkill

I am 100bb deep. This is 1-3.

Being rolled isn't the problem, just trying to eliminate making bad decisions.

Just trying to get an idea of what I did wrong in this Hand. Kinda figured the rr was too small, this is something I do a lot is 3b too small. Cause I try not to blow people out of the hand but I often end up giving them too easy of a call.

Anyway, dgi gave a great lesson, as always. Thanks.

So, looks like this thread isn't going much further, so....

I called

Turn was an A
River was a J

V flipped over QQ for a set and then let the expletives fly when I flipped over the nuts.

Obviously calling ended up working, but I'm just not sure if it was just pure tilt or if everyone would have *sigh* called.

I knocked the move because too many times I fell madly in love with AK/AQ sooted and shoveled money in pre, then found myself obliged to c-bet my way into commitment on a missed flop. (Maybe when I move up to where they respect my raises this'll be profitable for me ).

This is just where Op finds himself. Sure its nice when we flop well or suck out, but we miss the flop a majority of the time and suck out even less.

I figure if he just leads full pot (~15bb), he'll likely get the same isolation for 10% less of his stack. This would be easier to get away from if things go sideways, possibly avoiding blundering into commitment.

As played, its unlikely V has less than {AKs, TT+) and Op's on the very bottom of that range. Even KQ has us in bad shape.

Out of curiosity:

Does anyone agree that V made a mistake by flatting Hero's 50$ 3-bet OOP with QQ? Especially following V's description.

Would have made it 150 to go all day if I was him and shove (almost) all flops.

Limp raising is the ONLY part of this hand that I am certain I played correct (given the reads). Raising in that spot, given the reads I had, would be beyond terrible.

I don't LRR much at all but def do given v straddle raising frequency. Agree 3! Too small. AP I call off to.

Now in reverse order...

If your ranging of villain is correct it is NOT 50/50 that he flopped a set. Read your own op. Count the combos of 99 TT JJ and compare to the remaining combos of TT.

Having said that your assigned range is too narrow esp given your small 3!.

I think v is calling with most of his pps Broadway's and other random stuff and capping him at JJ seems arbitrary.

If he's raising all straddles he's calling a reasonably small 3! With a lot of his playable hands.

You ran into the top of his range here but this line is profitable in this spot given dynamic.

I was about to say the same thing. It's definitely not 50/50 that he flopped a set.

V1 is a pretty strange V. Usually guys that straddle every time and raise 95% of their straddles are not "pretty straightforward". They're usually either tricky or gambly.

Before you c-bet the flop, you need to know what you're going to do if he shoves. Your story is that you have AA or KK. V probably is going to put you on at least TPTK after you LRR pre and bomb the flop. So, if he shoves, he's probably got that beat.

I would probably check the flop and hope to bink. Or else, I'd bet smaller with the intention of folding to a shove. A $70 bet on the flop will likely accomplish the same thing a $120 bet would. If he missed the flop, he'll fold if he is a "straightforward" player. A $70 bet can look like you're just trying to milk his weak hand for stacks.

Pretty crappy spot as played. I'd probably fold just because he has to perceive hero's range as super strong. He has to think that we're snap calling and yet he still shoves. Unless you think that hero's losing image would cause this guy to spaz, I'd fold. AK is obviously not ahead. There's 4 pure outs, a backdoor flush, and possibly two overs. Pretty much the best we can hope to be up against is AQ. There's also a decent chance that are over outs are no good.

I wasn't trying to be exact number correct with the 50-50 statement, just
Making a general comment and was including 99-QQ

Wow. I'd guess that finding yourself pot-committed on the business end of a 70/30 split (at best; its actually 85/15 per the spoiler) would be beyond terrible. My bad.

You ask "Does anyone fold here?" Of course you can't fold as played. You committed yourself with the obligatory c-bet, which you obliged yourself to with your preflop play.

It's easy to justify play when you hit runner-runner, I guess, but if you'd lost the hand (which the numbers show happens more often not), the thread title might've read "Could I avoid stacking off here?"

I guess I answered the wrong question.

You're including the results in your response. Take away the results, and everything else after the decision to limp raise...given those reads and my hand, limp raising was absolutely the best move...I don't know how anyone could disagree with that

It didn't go runner runner, OP hit his gutshot and regardless of results I don't think you can really fold in that spot.

I do think a bigger Preflop limp RR would of been better IMO tho.

Not really, limp reraise is usually AA-KK. By Flatting pre villan leaves heros range wide ish. I think the hand was played just fine as far as maximizing. Hero may find folds with 99-JJ if villan 4 bet jams.

I'm cool with the limp/reraise plan. I would have made it about ~$90 (snap calling anyone who shoves) cuz my flop plan is to shove a PSB on any board.

Man, I wish we would have raised it more so we could shove this board cuz this is the exact board we were looking for when we whiff (cuz we have gutshot/over outs plus any pair < TT is unlikely to stand the heat).

With these stacks, I probably just cbet a small amount, like lol $50 and see if that gets it done.

I don't know why we're so worried about a set. We think this guy is limp/calling a straddler with QQ/TT? 44 is the only set I'm really worried about.

If we're getting 4:1 to call the shove at this point, I'm doing that, as we're getting the odds against TP (gutshot + just need 1 of our 6 overs to be clean to breakeven at this point).

Gsetupasimplersituationpreflop,imoG