Do we have the fold equity to rip it?
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,682
5/T $1100 effective.
I played 1/3 with V3 for about an hour. I played a few hands but was pretty card dead. I have been at this 5/T for about 30 minutes and haven’t played a hand.
V1 (EP) loose passive rec.
V2 (LJ) decent lag. Wide pre. Probably views me as on the nittier side of TAG.
V3 (SB) seems like a loose passive rec. MAWG. Casually dressed.
Hero (CO).
V1 limps, V2 $55, I $155 67cc, V3 cold calls, v1 folds, V2 calls.
Flop: 889r no clubs.
V3 (SB) now donks for $225. Folds back to me.
Based on my experience, his line absolutely screams TT/JJ. Maybe the occasional combo of QQ. We need something like 37% fold equity to rip it against a range of JJ/TT. Do we have it?
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 1,512
Well the donk into the world seems pretty strong to me. I can find a fold drawing to 8 outs.
Join Date: May 2012
Posts: 14,935
I would think so. I like Bob Marley here.
Join Date: Jan 2020
Posts: 142
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 276
unless villian seems like a wealthy loose passive rec and you dont have a maniac image or 4 betting a ton i think he folds jj/10 at a fairly high percentage preflop. i feel his range is only QQ KK AK and a small % of the time he flats AA though most passive players play AA fast to not get cracked. if he was smart n aware of his image he should flat AA 100% of the time at 100bbs knowing you know a passive rec aint cold 5 betting w/o AA KK. KK could donk this flop but i think KK or AA would check and let you take control n chk raise or donk turn if u chked back. so i feel this donk is either qq betting to get your AK to fold and then sigh calling it off if u ship over or its AK donk bluffing hoping u have AK also n folding if u jam. if u think his range is AK n QQ here id think u have enough fold equity with the fact he will bet/fold qq some percentage of the time
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,578
Sucks the times that he has 10’s and your hopeful 8 live outs become 4.
I agree this is very often 10’s/JJ with the occasional QQ.
Close spot.
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,578
Pre seems close as well, I can see why you’re 3!ing light though.
Join Date: Jan 2019
Posts: 6,600
I would make it $180~ pre. People r/call at a much higher frequency than they should be so it makes sense to size up with our entire range. Both to maximize FE with our bluffs and extract max value IP with a stronger range with our value.
Cold calling 3-bets in the SB is not a good idea since the PFR can 4! and you're basically forced to fold everything, especially if the 3-bettor 5-bet piles. Also we're OOP, multiway vs. two aggressive 5/10 players, even if the PFR does decide just to call. So my impression is this guy has no idea what he's doing and is calling way too wide in this spot.
This means that on a rainbow board he'll have more 8x than he should and vs a better SD like J-10 we're 30%~.
Vs. 10s we're 15%~ and I don't want to count on this player type to fold that. After all, he did cold call a 3! in the SB.
Join Date: Apr 2017
Posts: 2,458
I think if you range V as only over pairs than no, probably not enough FE. Close though. Jam here is a strong move but so is V3 cold calling your 3b pre then donking the flop.
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,682
Results: I decided to jam and V folded TT face up. I do feel confident that I can be results oriented about my ranging of him, I’m less confident about how much fold equity I had.
Last edited by Badreg2017; 02-17-2020 at 12:03 AM.