After replaying this hand over and over for the last 18 hours, this is what I'm thinking.

passive means they are more likely to fold to a c bet??? unless you want them to call. i dont. loose refers to prf play in which they will be in there with a wider range of hands in which case, may make it more likely they connected. i still c-bet though. imo, who of you thinks this could be the 25% or so of hands we should not c-bet as pfr?

Couldn't agree more, especially given flop/turn play by V. He wanted to others to bet, they didn't, now gotta compensate and get the money in. A lot of bad V's slow play flopped two pair plus hands in 1/2 and miss a lot of value.

Spex loves to disagree with me/troll me for some reason.

Oops, misread original post

Grunch- Bet/ fold the river to get value from Jacks, I prob fold river without a read that shover is a spewtard. just saw that it was a home game, still prob fold but this makes it closer to a call readless as ppl do some dumb stuff in home games

Button called preflop, called flop, checked back the turn, and overbet the river. Let's think about what kinds of hands are congruent with his line:

Sets - Nope, he's going to bet those on the turn when checked to by both players as he's last to act. I guess it's possible that he'd check back turn for deception, but I'd heavily discount these given the turn check, plus he can pretty much only have 88/33 so that's very few combos.

Two pair - If he has any non Ax two pair, he's almost certainly not checking back the turn and then shoving this river. That leaves us Ax hands, of which AJ is probably betting the turn. A3 might not call the flop. So that basically leaves us with just A8.

Busted draws - T9 is the most obvious as that missed the OESD. QT is also possible if he decided to float flop with the gutter. Something like T7 or 97 is possible though less likely. These hands make sense to call flop, take the free card on the turn, and then jam river as it's the only way they can win the pot.

Pair turned into bluff - I doubt V is doing this, but there's at least a slim possibility that he decided to turn something like 99 or 77 or 78s into a bluff to fold Jx when the Ace hits the river. This is a minor consideration overall but something to at least think about.

When we take all of this into consideration, we find that V's range is weighted heavily towards bluffs in this spot. We've discounted sets, of which there are few combos to begin with, as well as two pair hands except exactly A8 (again, of which there are very few combos). When we put this together, we should be inclined to call river, especially when we have a hand that's near the top of our bluff-catching range. I'd be calling in this spot unless I have a live read/tell that V is strong here.

LOL, yeah, we're generally way ahead or way behind on the river. Kind of hard to be anywhere else unless we're chopping. J8 and AJ both have tons of reasons to bet the turn (for value).

Great stuff guys. I appreciate all the feedback. Was hard to analyze like this during the hand but this discussion helps me out a lot for how to think about hands in the future.

Coming to this late. I like the line you took, so long as you're usually calling his river bet. Raise pre, c-bet flop, check turn looks transparently like AQ/AK. Betting river isn't getting called by much worse. Checking river to induce can be a nice wrinkle.

That said, I'm usually finding a fold against this overbet from this player.

RAHZero provides a good range of villain's holdings, but leaves AK and AQ out of the mix. Those should be in there. We chop with one, we lose to the other.

What weaker aces are calling our preflop raise and calling the flop cbet? A10 might call the preflop raise. Probably the Axs combos too. All of his small Axs hands are generally folding to the flop bet, whereas he might decide to stick around with A3s or A8s, particularly if he has a backdoor flush possibility and is feeling lucky. I think he has more A3/A8/AJ in his range than 910/gutshot draws.

Basically, we need to estimate whether this guy likes to bet big on the river to try to get people to fold or likes to bet big on the river because (level 0) he has a big hand. My default assumption when facing a big bet at 1/2, particularly if its the first time the player has bet so big, is that the player has a big hand.

I'd let him bluff me this time.