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Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Did I run a ridiculous bluff here?

12-15-2018 , 05:13 AM
1/3 game, villain sitting on my left is a 5/10 LAG pro waiting for a seat at the higher stakes. Super nice guy; I really enjoyed chatting with him, although I'd much rather our positions be reversed.

Anyway, OTTH:

Hero is the effective stack with around $500.

Maniacal donkey opens in EP to $20, I call in the CO with 89hh, pro calls. Everyone else folds. Pot is $60.

Flop is T 6 2 with 2 diamonds. Donk checks, I check, pro bets $40, donk calls, I call. Pot is $180.

Turn is the 6 of clubs which makes the board double suited. Donk checks, I check, pro bets $120, donk folds (yes this donk does have a fold button - he's usually either betting and raising stupid amounts with stupid hands, or folding, rarely calling passively; and if he does, he's likely folding the next street. I've seen donk 3-bet with 72o probably just because he thinks it's funny, so when he chose not to cbet this flop, **** knows why, he's inconsistent. I've seen this pro bet quite aggressively against the donk, and just aggressive in general especially on turn cards that make a big hand.)

Hero can't call here, but we can check-raise all-in and rep the 6. I felt overcalling the fish on this flop with 2nd pair is credible, considering the pro could be positional betting with air.

The double flush board is bad though - we can get called by a flush draw even if the pro believes we have a 6. But we're still never drawing dead, and I think that the pro is double barreling air here frequently enough.

Spoiler:
Hero jammed and gets called by the pro's A6.

Last edited by GuitarDean; 12-15-2018 at 05:22 AM.
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-15-2018 , 05:30 AM
jamming a bluff with practically no equity is usually losing poker and it doesn't even matter if it gets through.

poker is a long term game

you can pick a much....much better spot

preflop- I would have liked a 3 bet to isolate the "donk"

flop - is a fold we are drawing to 3 possibly 2 outs and we are oop against the new aggressor

turn- fold

isn't to much to analyze we shouldn't be in this spot
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-15-2018 , 05:55 AM
Correction: I had an OESD there.

I usually change the hands slightly in ways that (1) I know don't change the hand situation, and (2) don't ID who I am or where I am (in case someone I'm playing with is here on 2+2). Not sure why I'm paranoid; this board has posters around the world, and I'm concerned about someone I'm playing with reading my posts and knowing "GuitarDean is this player at this room, and omg he thinks like a donkey! And he's saying what about me???!" Lol.

Maybe I should stop doing that.

Anyway, here I mistakenly changed the cards on the flop/turn to give me a gutshot. The actual situation was that we had a mid-ranked suited connector that made an OESD for up to 8 outs, and then the middle card on the flop paired on the turn and also made a double-suited board.

Let's just change the 6s to 7s and we now have the situation I'm trying to ask about.

Did we really have zero fold equity? I really did think this villain could be double barreling with complete air there at least some of the time.

Last edited by GuitarDean; 12-15-2018 at 06:02 AM.
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-15-2018 , 07:40 AM
Didnt read comments or results.

I'd probably fold pre vs this open size and pro OTB who will always have position on us post or can squeeze us out pre. OTB calling is fine but extremely marginal.

Flop I'd fold or lead out

Otf I'd just fold, not sure what you're trying to accomplish by calling.

Turn I'd fold as well, this is a very bad spot to bluff with double FD and straight draws out there.

Edit: So we had an OESD otf? So why didn't we just lead flop or x/r big vs pro? Check/call is the worst option. Vs a pro who probably stabs too wide and realizes PFR is super capped and that we are relatively capped by checking, I like a x.r
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-15-2018 , 10:05 AM
Even with sevens rather then sixes on the board it your not going to get enough folds for it to be profitable. The only hands you are going to consistently fold out are villain's draws and some low pairs, both of which might not have bet flop or turn so are somewhat discounted anyways.

Your hand just looks too much like a draw itself. If you did have a 7X or better on the turn are you actually going to check yourself? Not often should be the answer.
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-15-2018 , 10:17 AM
It was just 2 days ago when I posted that nobody believes you when you raise the turn after one of the bottom 2 cards pairs. Its a terrible time to bluff. Of course this time no bluff would work because they guy had the hand you tried to rep, but in general, dont try that move.

Oh yeah....fold the flop. Chasing a gutshot on a FD board is suicide.
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-15-2018 , 11:30 AM
Fold pre why are u calling 7x raises with a pro behind with 98?

I agree with minatorr you should lead flop as played.
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-15-2018 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
Edit: So we had an OESD otf? So why didn't we just lead flop or x/r big vs pro? Check/call is the worst option. Vs a pro who probably stabs too wide and realizes PFR is super capped and that we are relatively capped by checking, I like a x.r
This makes total sense to me.

I didn't lead because I felt fairly confident that the pro was going to take a stab at the pot, but you're absolutely right - check/raising the flop when our draw was stronger and we had more FE would've been far better than to call and wait for the turn.

Silly mistake to play passive OTF and then go for it OTT in a worse situation with worse FE...

That's why I'm not making a living playing 5/10! xD
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-15-2018 , 05:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GuitarDean
Correction: I had an OESD there.

I usually change the hands slightly in ways that (1) I know don't change the hand situation, and (2) don't ID who I am or where I am (in case someone I'm playing with is here on 2+2). Not sure why I'm paranoid; this board has posters around the world, and I'm concerned about someone I'm playing with reading my posts and knowing "GuitarDean is this player at this room, and omg he thinks like a donkey! And he's saying what about me???!" Lol.

Maybe I should stop doing that.
Stop doing that immediately. It makes analyzing your threads impossible and leads to mistakes like this.

If you must, just swap suits.
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-17-2018 , 02:12 PM
Obviously hate our seat. Until that gets resolved, I likely play a lot tighter preflop.

Think I'd rather make a small stab at the flop when it's checked to me than I would check/calling. With 2 others in the hand it's less likely we'll be able to comfortably rep the diamonds, I'm not even sure we should be repping the diamonds with the maniac in the hand (we have FE?), and otherwise we're on a clean 3 outer which is like a 14:1 shot and we're getting just 3.5:1. Do we have a plan?

Thing that concerns me a lot on the turn is that I'm guessing pro doesn't think he has that much FE against the maniac, plus there's another guy in the hand, and yet he's still betting away. He'd 3bet JJ+ (and maybe even stuff like ATs) against the maniac raise + call preflop, so this is not very likely to be one pair. Also, wouldn't we bet a 6x with the maniac checking the flop to us just 3ways? I'm not convinced our story checks out, and I think we end up repping what someone else actually has too often.

Gtryingtohard,imoG
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote
12-17-2018 , 02:26 PM
I'd bet flop once checked to. After called i'm check folding this turn.

I'd never check call on gutshots unless there is like 4+ people going to the turn. At which point it becomes profitable to pay your 5 to 1 on 20%. (5 to 1 if there was preflop raise).
Did I run a ridiculous bluff here? Quote

      
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