The game is 1/2 10-handed.

Hero ($200): 21 year old white guy. Played with villain a bit the day prior, but didn't have any big hands with him. He views me as a solid TAG.

Villain ($200): sat down to my direct left about an orbit ago and has been playing somewhat LAGGy. He talks a lot of poker and is apparently used to higher stakes up to 5/10. He thinks he's a great player, but I've seen him do what IMO are mildly fishy plays and he himself says he can't do well at 1\2.
Anyway, he is thinking about higher level concepts like ranging, implied odds, etc.

Hero raises AQo to $16 UTG. Only V calls (odd for the table)

Flop ($31):
742

Hero checks, V bets $15, Hero calls.

I am not ready to give up on such a dry flop against this V with my strong UTG opening range, even OOP. He surely has a much wider range than he should here and I expect him to have a mix of weakish pairs protecting equity against overcards, air and sets, all of which may not be in his range.

Is this OOP float a bad idea? I could fold now or c-bet, but I would be checking most of my value range on a flop like this.
I intend to bet any A, K, Q or J turn and probably x/f others.

Turn ($60):
Ax (probably not rainbow but I don't remember)

Checks through.

I changed my mind about betting this turn because it hits my range so hard and I don't know what worse would call me. I decide to turn my hand into a bluffcatcher, but he doesn't bite.

River ($60)
Kx (no flushes possible)

Checks through. This is a terrible card as now I really don't think any worse calls. I check to give him a chance to bluff although I don't think he's likely to try. Maybe I should give off a reverse tell as I check? He's the kind of V to look for and pick up on this kind of thing if I am subtly convincing.

Floating OOP and making no money when I hit seems really fishy. Advice on any street would be appreciated.

Why can't KQ, KJ call you? Yes of course you played this hand too passively and I can assure you that V does not consider you a solid TAG.

Bet/fold $40 on the turn and $80 on the river.

You should be c-betting this flop a fair percentage of the time. When he bets half the pot calling some of the time is fine.

Checking turn is OK but once you check and he checks behind you need to bet river. Odds are probably against getting paid unless villain has a worse ace but he might call with a strong king. More importantly, if he didn't bluff turn you can't expect him to bluff a river that makes the situation even worse for him. His KX hands want to check and see if they are good and his pure bluffs are going to give up.

Yeah I c-bet a board like this quite frequently.
Not sure what I do on the turn after checking flop. AP i bet river.

+1

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Villain ($200): sat down to my direct left about an orbit ago and has been playing somewhat LAGGy. He talks a lot of poker and is apparently used to higher stakes up to 5/10. He thinks he's a great player, but I've seen him do what IMO are mildly fishy plays and he himself says he can't do well at 1\2.
Anyway, he is thinking about higher level concepts like ranging, implied odds, etc.


Op why is this only a higher level concept? Its 1/2 concepts too trust me, you just have to take your opponents point of view into account (level 2 Thinking).

Or did I misunderstand and that was the Villains point of view? And if so than he belongs in the Most absurd Poker "thinking thread".

I believe the Villain is consciously thinking about these things. I didn't think most players do except at a basic, intuitive level. Maybe my wording was poor. My point in including this was that I believe villain will assign me a tight pre-flop UTG raising range like AQo+, AJs, KQ, TT+.

Speaking to everyone now, villain is playing too many hands. He's calling raises and opening fairly wide trying to outplay the table. His attitude at the table reinforces my belief of this. He's slightly arrogant and is constantly talking about poker concepts and strategy at the table. He wears shades.

My greatest uncertainty is what to do on the flop. Regarding c-betting the flop: Am I bluffing or am I betting for protection?

On the turn, let's say villain has AT. I would have bet TT-JJ on the flop at least and possibly QQ or KK, but not 100%. All four of those hands are easy checks on the turn anyway. All 16 combos of KQ are betting the turn, assuming I raise KQo UTG pre-flop. Villain beats 16 bluff combos. Let's say my value hands are AQ, AK, AJs, AA, for 20 combos. Villain's equity against my range will be pretty close to 50% so villain can call any reasonable bet on the turn with any ace.

I think I can definitely value bet the turn profitably, so the main question is if checking is better. I guess it mostly depends on villain's tendencies. My read was that villain would be more likely to bluff than most, but the A does hit my range pretty hard so I can't really count on him to bluff in this spot very often. In retrospect I much prefer betting the turn.

However, I really don't understand why I am supposed to bet the river, so I will elaborate more on why I think it is incorrect so someone can try to better explain why I'm wrong, or maybe even agree with me

If I bet the river what does my hand look like to villain? The only part of my pre-flop range he can beat with AJ is TT-QQ and KQ. Wouldn't I have likely bet the flop for value/protection with JJ-TT and bluffed at some point with KQ? If I had chosen not to, would I bet with JJ-TT or KQ on the river? Those hands have really good showdown value and aren't really strong enough to value bet being so close to the bottom of my range.

Thoughts?

this player type is always somewhere between overactive and FPS. i find that they don't really understand how they are going to make money at the poker table. you should try to talk to him about football. anything besides triple range merging

we don't really call it 'betting for protection'. you bet to get worse to call, better to fold, or to force the other player to surrender equity. if you bet, and he calls with KQ, its #1. if he folds 2To, its #2. if he folds KJ, its #3.

AP, after you opened UTG, you shut down. x/c, x on the turn. your hand looks like some pretty cards that didn't match the flop, mostly broadways and high suited connectors.

(yes, i know *you* wouldn't raise them, but other people do. see the KQo thread)

if I am V i am snap-calling a reasonable river bet on the river with most of my solid pairs

Why don't we typically bluff relentlessly? Oh, right.

Your opponents can't make mistakes unless you give them the chance. Letting him bluff is one way. But putting $45 out there and letting him make a bad call is going to be much more profitable especially in this spot where it seems like he's either given up or has showdown value.

Checking flop is fine for the reasons you mentioned. We don't get called by worse or fold better. Betting flop with the plan of barreling can be good, as can checking if opponent won't attack weakness (or check/calling if he auto-bets every time you check)

Some of both. You can also get some better hands to fold, low pairs that didn't connect.

When neither of you bet the turn AX hands get discounted a bit from both of your ranges. This means that on the river both of your ranges are pretty wide, as the flop bet/call doesn't require much of a hand at all. The AK board is scary for villain who bet flop with an over pair, so it is actually a good board for you to bluff on river. Also, given the play of the hand QQ/JJ might be the best hand.

Probably the single best reason to bet river is simply that hero has to think they have the best hand and has no reason to think villain is likely to bluff. I would check river occasionally to villains to like to take stabs at pots, but even then the bet flop/give up when ace hits line really favor hero betting river.

I don't mind the flop check. Our hand has showdown value and we don't need to bloat the pot OOP with Ace high. No small pair is folding on this board texture.

Opponent bet flop so checking the turn to him is fine. Unless V is capable of bluffraising the river then we need to bet for value. Bet any amount you would call if you had a weaker A, K, or middle pair. 25-30 is probably good.

So I am making the mistake of assuming villain is putting me on a pretty specific tight range, and failing to consider that he might make bad calls despite knowing I have a tight UTG opening range? Okay, I can see that value betting the river isn't fruitless due to this. Given my read that he's here to outplay everybody, there's also probably not a bad chance he'd be willing to make terrible hero calls trying to show off and own me. It's probably more likely that he'd level himself into calling than he backed into some stupid two pair with K7s.

It's a classic bet/fold spot. Bet since there are tons of worse hands that can call here. If your opponent raises then you know you are beat and can fold.

Roles reversed and taking away knowledge of my own range I probably wouldn't even call a small bet on the river with Ax. I called preflop to outplay villain knowing he had a strong range, and I got a horrendous board runout to try to make any plays, and I'm never good facing a bet on this river against this villain, IMO.

My final opinions after considering all responses follow:

A 1/3 PSB on the river seems reasonable for reasons already mentioned, I suppose, but I'm definitely not fist-pumping.

Checking the turn probably looks stronger than betting since it's such a great bluff card. I would bet all of my non SDV hands on the turn as a bluff, so shouldn't I bet for value too against a thinking villain? I think my biggest mistake in this hand is not betting the turn. I am definitely not betting a river K if V calls turn since his range is much stronger here than in the line I took and it has all the same problems as the real line.

On this flop which pretty cleanly misses everybody's range I am not c-betting OOP against a thinking villain because it looks so FOS. Against most other villains I am c-betting expecting to take it down. If I bet and villain raises there's not much I can do. If I bet and villain calls and turn comes anything but Ax, Kx, Qx, I am in a tough spot OOP. I think x/c is better because I have the best hand sometimes, very likely have outs if not and very likely have bluff outs.

I think that my IMAGE is that of a solid TAG from villain's perspective; I don't claim that's what I am. Additionally, I come on 2p2 looking for advice on hands I think I misplayed or butchered, not to brag about hands I played well, so the implication that I'm a weak-passive player because of this hand isn't appreciated or helpful. That is what you're implying, right? Correct me if I'm wrong. I come here soliciting advice, not condescension.

I thank everybody else for great responses.

i would c-bet and barrel the turn on this texture hes more than likely missed this flop. which means if he is going to hang on then hes most likely going to do it with a hand like 88+.

i like a c-bet like $25 followed by $60 on the turn. we can credible rep an over pair and if he doesn't believe us then we can always hit an A or Q.

if you check this flop you're basically turning your hand face up when you bet the turn or river if the A/Q/K peels. it probably would have worked out a lot better for you to c-bet the flop and maybe check the turn or continue betting it. i would have probably checked and gave V some rope.