You have to analyze from the point in time that we are facing the $35 raise after having bet $12. Our options are to fold or jam (in this comparison).

You don't lose $150 when you lose because you've already bet $12. So you only lose the remaining $138 when you lose.

When you win, you win $138 + $12 + $12 + $3 = $164.

I win $50 24% of the time when he folds = $12

I lose $138 [76% * 57%] of the time = $59.8

I win $164 [76% * 43%] of the time = $53.6

As I suspected, my original math was wrong, we only need to make up 2% equity when there's a 4% difference between what we need and what we have. So he only needs to fold 6 / 50 = 12% to break even.

I guess calling and folding when you don't hit the flop is a losing play for that price. It's turning AK into a small pair and hoping to hit a set.
The only thing I know for sure is that AK must be the hardest hand to play when 3 bet into. If we can master this problem, how to properly play AK, we'll be on our way to true poker profit.

... one has 2 outs, the other has 6. You flop an ace or king 32.4% of the time, you only flop a set 11.7%. Worlds different from each other.

And you only need 27.9% equity to call the $17 more preflop, so if you can see your opponent's cards and he can see yours, you should still call preflop to hit an Ace or King.

If you range your opponent on exactly QQ/JJ then I would jam over calling because if the board comes A or K high he's unlikely to pay off much so you have little implied odds and you also have 5 chances to hit the 6 outer rather than 3. You can also maximise any fold equity you may have, no matter how small.

Especially with the read given I jam here, he can be doing this wider when JJ+ and we also have blockers to AA/KK as well as only 75bb eff. If I'm beat I say nh and reload. + you know, spaz factor.

This is bad poker.

This is bad poker; he could be nervous about going to the dentist, or about the dentist bill he just got.



This whole thread is pretty much results oriented. The best indicator of this is you fail to tell us what your stack size is, whether you can reload, and why you are in this game in the first place.

Your job at the table is to figure out what you want and how to get it. So in this spot, your job is to figure out whether to go to the felt with this guy or take your $12 loss. All you really need to do is figure out whether his cards are weak or strong, and whether he's determined to play them. If you put him on JJ or QQ, you're saying his cards are strong, so fold, unless you believe he will.

What a lot of fish do in similar situations is they COMPROMISE. They can't figure out whether to fold or raise, so they CALL. Don't do that; when you do that, you're reinforcing almost every bad habit a NLH player could have; you're training yourself to be BAD at NLH. So to answer your second question, yes, you played it bad, you played it like a fish.

Against the range 99-KK, AQs+, AKo, your hand is a 46-54 dog. So fold equity is pretty much your only equity in this spot.

Hero's read may not be that outlandish here. If villain 3! only JJ+( not unheard of, some players only 3! KK+) then 2/3's of the time he has JJ or QQ. Hero also is picking up a change in body language reinforcing that math.
If shoving is -ev with out at least a small amount of fold equity and calling is slightly +ev even when we don't collect any more chips when we hit, how can calling be wrong? (My math has it at 29.94% that we flop an A or K and Villain doesn't flop a set. Compared to the 27.9% needed.) Villain could still stack off when we hit. We could see villains reaction to the flop and find ourselves in a better spot to bluff. (Villain may be a tell box.) Flatting is slightly +ev, shoving is slightly -ev if we have no fold equity, and folding is an option too. Nothing says we have to pursue such tiny edges. I wouldn't say any of the three option is a huge mistake.

Thank you Sir! So, let's say it's 1/3NL - 1 limper - I make it $18 [I'd raise more, however this is a math exercise]- V raises to $45 with $145 behind [I cover] - folds back to me:

$70 in pot [$4 blinds, $3 limp, my $18, V's 3! $45] - $7 rake & $1 tip = $62.

When he calls & I win, I win $190 - $18 = $172 + $18*2 + $7 = $215 - $7 rake & $1 tip = $207.00

For the purpose of the math exercise, we'll say my equity deficit is 8% [54% vs. 46%], so I would x 4 * $2.07 = ~$8.28

$8.28/$62 = 13.35% fold equity required.

You don't even need the accurate fold equity - just the 13% - You estimated how often you think V will fold to your 4! all in before determining how much you need.

Prove over-the-table math:

[$70 - $8 rake & tip] * .1335 = +$8.277
I win [.8665*.46]* $207 = +$82.50
Total +Ev = $90.78

I lose [.8665 *.54]*$172 = -$80.48 & we PROFIT with only 13.35% fold equity! !

So, if I had confidence in my read on his range & felt strongly that he would fold that range to my 4! all in pre at a minimum of 33% of the time - I shove.
This ~19.5% cushion, on top of the 13.35% fold equity required, makes up for the times my range is off and/or estimate of how often he'll fold to my 4! pre PLUS the fact that there are plenty of bigger edges to chase in LLSNL games.

Am I cuttin' it too close, or being too weak?

I think your 29 number is too high. The 27 number is too low, because it was done by someone who thinks 35 - 12 = 17.

The situation you constructed you're actually fine to get it in even if he never folds (obviously the times he folds are great), but increasing the amount that you raised preflop results in you not needing as good of odds to get it in. You need to compare the equity you need vs the equity you actually have to determine how often he needs to fold.

In your case, you're wagering your remaining $172 to win $379 so you only need 45.4% equity to make shoving profitable. So having 46% equity makes it an easy shove. If you only have, say, 39% equity when called, then you need to make up for it with fold equity.

Well I have verified my method and found a small error. We actually flop an A or K and he doesn't flop a set 30.65%. (Don't really want to post the math here. It is a ton of fractions. All my possible out comes added to 1 so I am confidant I didn't double count along the way.) Our direct odds were of a bit though. After a 10% rake our price is $23 to win $66 so we would need 35% for call to be +ev. Of course this didn't consider flopping a straight or flush draw but those together will not occur frequently enough to push us over the top. Since we only need to make $3 in implied odds to break even I would still suggest that calling is viable. We don't have to collect big bets on both the turn and the river to make money here when we hit. I still think both GII and flatting are fine here and which is better is villain specific.

Nah, pretty sure 29+% is a bit too high. And then you need to take into account the possibility that Villain has KK. Even if the read is hero's best, villain still has KK 5% or thereabouts. Just being realistic here.

The other concept that you need to consider is hero may get moved off the best hand OTF. Just like villain has KK sometimes, he also has AQ suited sometimes and would generally shove if he flops any kind of big draw. Resolving the hand PF whenever possible generally yields the better result. When you say your hand will improve 30%, you're also saying you'll be in a terribad spot 70% (or maybe somewhat less).

This thread has sort of gone off on a tangent where we KNOW he has QQ.

If he may have KK then he may have AQ or AK or JJ/TT. And then shoving is way better imo.

whoops, math is hard.

Math is not necessary to determine your equity vs a range or specific hand when you get it all in pre. That's what Flopzilla and/or PokerCruncher is for. Both will give you your equity after the Flop, Turn & River, based upon what the board is you put in.

How do I win $379? I think you were tired. V started with $190.00 & there was only 1 limper who folded to V's 3!
In any event, players most often don't have their stacks in an easily recognizable height, so it's hard to gauge what they are starting with.

$379 total, not profit.

Ok. Gotcha'! Thanks.

ZuneIt, I have not seen an equity calculator that will just evaluate flops and stop.

Since all our profit comes from fold equity, our profit from shoving is capped at $50. Is it really that hard to believe we might be able to outplay a newbie tell box for more than that? Or more than $25 if we have only 50% FE?

rus5267, Both PokerCruncher & Flopzilla do it for flop, turn & river.

I probably put him on JJ+/AK and fold pre. If it was an Asian kid, I'd ship.

It's not either/or; that's bad philosophy/mentality.

If I had a table full of peeps who 3-bet folded consistently, I'd never leave.

Thank you ZuneIt, It didn't look like it to me from the screen shots for either.