Not sure if this is beginners or LLSNL territory.

I know my opponent pretty well and know he slows down a lot if you call his flop bets.

If he bet's 2/3 of the pot and I have a FD, and I call, and then he makes the same flop sized bet on the turn, I'm getting 4.5+:1 odds on the turn, which is correct to call, but since I made a bad call on the turn, what's my EV?

Here's my actual notes from a real game with a similar situation.

$1/2 live FR. I have a spewy maniac to my right, and this super weak player to my left.

Maniac CO ( $200 )
Hero BTN ( $200 )
Mr. Weak SB ( $200 )

I straddle, several callers, maniac raises to $30, I call with 68cc, weak calls. Everyone else folds.

Flop ( $110 )
Ac10s5c.
Bet $60, fold, call.

Turn ( $230 )
Ks.
Bet $60, call.

River ( $350 )
Js.
check, check.

Villian shows AJo for two pair, I muck.

Preflop is optimistic at best. Given reads I think postflop is ok.

You're getting basically 5:1 on the turn and you need 4:1 to breakeven against top pair. Some of the time he has two pairs or a set and he boats up on river at the same time you hit a flush. You're about 2:1 underdog to hit if you see turn and river. So you are risking $120 total and need to win a little over $480 to breakeven. Do the math from there. Add current pot+your call and multiply that number by your equity. This will show how much you would make long term had you call vs folded.

On the flop you're looking to call $60 into $170, that's 2.8:1, and not good enough to call. If you called, pot would then be $230 on the turn, with $110 effective stacks. So you should be able to assume you can win your opponents last $110, especially with his image. So your implied odds on a flop call, should make calling the flop fine despite not getting the immediate correct odds. Regarding raising the flop, you shouldn't have much fold equity against a player with that image so I don't think you can raise as a semi-bluff. A flop call should be worth between: -$14 and $8, or thereabouts. You need to be confident in having some implied odds to make calling the flop correct I think.

On the turn you're looking to call $60 into $290. You're 19% to make your hand on the river, so you need about 4.1:1 to make calling correct. You're getting 4.8:1, immediate odds. With only $50 behind after his bet, there aren't many implied odds. However, calling should still be correct on the turn, as you're getting the correct immediate odds. A turn call should be worth between: $10 and $20, or thereabouts.

Despite the decision points post-flop maybe being correct, a pre-flop fold is probably best. I guessed at those values for the calls based on you having 20% equity as sometimes not all of your outs are clean.

Never mind Mis read blinds what was straddle 4? Probably a fold preflop with 8 high

I'm sorry to say but your - ev play started when you called 30 preflop with that hand

Preflop is really bad. Don't straddle. Don't call 1/7 of your stack pre with 68.

Pre flop is a giant mistake. It's essentially impossible to win enough the times you make a hand to make up for all the $30 calls you have to make to hit a hand.

You'll flop trips 1 in 100 times.
You'll flop two pair 1 in 50 times.
You'll flop a good draw one in 10 times, and it'll get there about 25% of the time.

Add all that up and round in your favor, and you're looking at making a good hand that will usually win 7 times in 100. The other 93 times you're stuck with air or some crappy third pair.

Say you break even 30% of the time when you flop a pair (that's absurdly optimistic, but let's assume you're the greatest player in the history of poker and can pull that off):

So now you're calling $30 70 times, investing $2100 preflop, to hit 7 hands you could stack a donkey with.

Since we're assuming you're the greatest player ever anyway, let's assume you do stack someone all seven times. You've invested $2100 to win $1400

You're $700 in the hole over 70 hands, making the preflop call a $10 mistake each time you make it.

Removing our absurdly optimistic assumptions, and it's an even more expensive mistake.

Just IMHO, there's no way it isn't actually at least a $22 mistake. I didn't, for example, count the money you'll invest in binking your draws.

Fold pre, ainec.

Concur strongly with the fold pre comments, but let's take a closer look at post.

He bets 60 into 110. Given reads we can pretty much assume that he has AT+, TT, and maybe some combos of 55 here (but I think he folds that pre OOP most of the time?). You have 9 outs to the flush, so you will hit OTT about 18% of the time. Your call of 60 would represent 26% of the total pot of $230, so you are not getting the right expressed odds to call flop.

However, your reads tell you that he'll likely "same bet" the turn if you call. That means that you have the implied chance to see two cards for $120, which will be 34% of the pot of $350 That is just under your equity of 35% against his range (not 36% because a very few times you will flush and he will boat). This means you are paying less than your equity and getting the right expressed odds if you are sure that he will bet small or check OTT.

If you have any implied odds, (he will make and/or call a bet after you hit your flush), it gets better.

Cliffs: Pre is horrible, as shown above. You got very "lucky" to hit something you could continue with. Flop is iffy against most players and would really depend on IOs, how often they could have better FDs, etc. It's OK given reads, though. Turn is an obvious call, as you have expressed odds.

Really good posts from mpethybridge and you Garrick.

However, I think we cannot rely on villain to bet 60 on the flop and 60 ott. Op stated it's usually 2/3 on the flop but on this occasion it was 60 into 110. Then op said that he makes a same size bet ott usually, but I'm assuming sized in pot terms as in half to 2/3 of the pot rather than another 60.

Its a mistake to assume villain will only bet 1/4 pot on the turn as he did in this case. The vast majority of villains will bet at least half pot, denying us the correct expressed and odds. The only other way we could win this hand would be to make a substantial bet if he checks the turn because he doesn't have an A, therefore turning our hand into a bluff with some equity, but often times its unlikely he will fold.

However, in this case and as you played it, he's not letting go of TPGK very often unless you are seen as extremely nitty.

It all goes back to my original post advising a fold pre-flop and mpethybridge 's very good explanation as to why you should based on pure math.

Grunch:
I had some thoughts that I posted and then deleted because thread pretty much ended after mpethy posted.

Read his post. Then read again. Then read it one more time.
Fold pre.

Fold pre. What did money ever do to you that you hate it so?

You probably want to be deeper if your straddling, as you may find yourself facing commitment issues with a marginal hand.

This is not what I got out of this: Sure sounds like a "same bet" guy, not a "same percentage of the pot" guy.

with such a non not draw i'm not sure even 4:1 is enough on the flop. needless to say this flop conundrum could be easily avoided by not straddling pre and thus folding the first time, but certainly folding for $25 more as well.

I feel like no one actually gave you the answer you were looking for. Here's what I think you want.

Assuming:
your opponent will bet $60 on non-club turns
you have 9 outs
your opponent has AK with no clubs
ignoring runner runner two pair/trips/full house
your opponent doesn't put any more money in the pot when the flush comes
you call the turn

The EV of calling the flop is

EV_flop = (9/45)($170)+(36/45)((9/44)($230)+(35/44)($-120)) = $-4.73

Obviously in practice you win some more bets when the flush comes in, so this is a profitable call in practice. Your opponent basically made a very bad mistake on the turn by letting you draw for so cheap. By giving you such a great price he made your flop call near-neutral EV.

If we change it so that your opponent bets $100 on the turn, we get

EV_flop = (9/45)($170)+(36/45)((9/44)($270)+(35/44)($-160)) = $-23.64

Remember that this is just the EV of the flop call assuming the play goes a certain way on the turn. This is not the EV of the turn call.