Thanks all for the great feedback, some really good stuff and thoughtful replies that are def going to be useful in approaching these spots in the future:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chunkamunk
Raising pre here with 33 is pointless. And if you insist on raising after a couple people have limped, I would go to at least $15 otherwise you're just juicing the pot in a hand where you are likely going to miss and fold OTF.
I'd much rather have 89s if you're raising it up.
As played, this should be an easy call - the strength of your hand is disguised and his range is very wide.
Good point, I wouldn't usually raise 33 on the button but figured since the table was pretty passive, it made sense. But I see your point too, we're missing the flop a lot here with 33 and maybe if we had more limpers and raised to like $15 to take the pot right there it makes more sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by aisrael01
Why is 67 running through your mind? What sort of player is calling flop bets with no pair no draw 7 high. That is truly a MUBSY thought process.
Your river bet is too small. Make it at least 60 to get some value from Ax.
There is always the WTF factor in live poker. Sometimes people spaz out with a relatively weak hand because they misinterpret the situation. Hard to assign a probability to WTF play, but it is certainly a consideration at the LSSNL level. He can be value betting worse hands than A9 here.
As played, easy call. You set yourself up for this by making a weak river bet which could easily induce a bluff or a value bet from worse. If he has the one hand we should be afraid of, 24, then so be it.
I don't know where the 67 thought came from, I actually didn't consider 24 as it seems even more WTF for villian to have, then again like you said the WTF factor exists...so we're in for a WTF surprise sometimes.
During my tanking he kept asking me if I had AQ (which I guess makes sense from his perspective if he's thinking at all and figures I'm tighter and AQ is a raising hand esp from the button). He also asked me if I really thought he was crazy enough to call 3 all the way with 67.
I had seen him chase down gutshots before in the evening so maybe that's where the MUBSY was coming from.
I agree my bet was small, I'm never checking here of course and was thinking value but I agree I could have made it bigger.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bigdaddycope
Overlimp pre
Size up turn
River is criminally small. AP, if we are going to bet this sizing OTR we are not bet folding.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Koss
River shoves should be polarized like this, so it's not like they are making a mistake by doing this.
As for the hand, preflop should be bigger. Usually you're trying to take it down or iso a limper. $10 is more of a pot sweetner, which I guess is OK, but at a table like you described I'm looking to try to get into spots with 1 or 2 callers, or just overlimp.
Flop is fine. Turn bet should be sized up a tad, but isn't that bad.
On the river, unless you have a good read on his tendencies, there's no need to bet this small. I usually only go stupid small or downbet the river when the board texture has changed. Here, the 9 changes nothing, so the aren't really and hands that call $35 that fold to $55. I think this is a good spot for about a 1/2 pot bet.
When he jams, I think you need to call with all your sets. I assume you would play AK/AQ the same way, so from a minimum defense frequency, sets should be a defend. He could also be overplaying 2-pair, and your tiny bet size may have induced a bluff. I'm calling here, but I'm not quite fist-pumping it.
Thanks. I usually overlimp here with small pocket pairs, figured I could be a bit more aggressive on a passive table but I see your point.
I agree with the AK/AQ and in fact I suspect villian thought maybe that's what I had. I should have bet more but I think he still shoves over me here. As for the not quite a fist pump, I agree, it was one of these spots where you really wonder. Long term it seems this is a profitable call though.
From a poker strat perspective I respected his move and villian and I chatted a bit later in the night about that hand. I thought it was a really great shove on his part, it made me go WTF esp on that board, but this was assuming he was thinking/competent enough to think through that AK/AQ makes sense for me to raise here. Then again if he thought I was tight and playing that way, a shove like that isn't getting called much so maybe it was a great bluff to push me off. Or he figured I would not be able to believe he beat me on river and would sigh call. It's interesting how many ways we can think about villian's move here, overall whether he had it or not the shove was a what makes poker so much fun.
I play online as well and see so many check/shoves on rivers its quite amazing. And it's either a monster getting there on river or a complete bluff. As you said it's so polarizing, so it's hard to tell sometimes and it's often a great play to short circuit another player (in this case me) and their thought process.
I wonder if I had just bet huge or even shoved on river would villian have called.
Quote:
Originally Posted by DrChesspain
In one of Ed Miller's early NL books he advocated sometimes making pot-sweetener raises from LP with small PPs, to increase the likelihood of being able to stack someone.
Of course, having some extra FE post-flop can't hurt either.
I like this. I haven't read his books but I do sometimes notice that we can throw people off by raising hands or spots we don't always raise. Same table same night, I chased down a guy with a king high flush draw by continuing a cbet on flop, he checked turn, we hit river flush, I go for 3/4 pot bet he just can't believe it and calls with a pair. We had air until river. So I like sweetening the pot, I just struggle sometimes to find the right spots to do it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by wj94
$20 flop, $65-70 turn, shove river. I'm not folding. Expecting to see 99.
Quote:
Originally Posted by monikrazy
Insta-call
I like the variety in possibilities I'm hearing in this thread. I absolutely felt a bigger set could have been there. But do we absolutely have to call 100% of the time if we really believe set over set?
Quote:
Originally Posted by KT_Purple
the short answer is yes
Yeah I kind of agree. I rarely fold sets esp on pretty dry boards.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chunkamunk
well F**k me haha. I do have a couple of his books too. But I think you get where I am coming from.
I got it too.It makes sense, I didn't understand fully why I was raising here pre but Miller's point makes sense in that context. I think it throws people off when these type of plays are made and doesn't seem like what you usually would do there.
Quote:
Originally Posted by adam levine
The problem with this sizing pre is that it turns your hand face up to anyone paying attention.As played snap,your small sizing might have induced some spew and he can have aces up for value.
In terms of making it face up, it seems like it makes AK or AQ face up but not 333. It seemed really well disguised, and I do think it was either he had me crushed by river or he was spewing Ax or two pair.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bombonanza
call... sorry you lost.
Thanks again. I ended up folding
When I made this post I was smacking myself for folding because I do think it's a call here even though they do show up with spazzy 24 and 67 sometimes or come up with a higher set. I've seen players calling constantly these smallish value bets on flops and turns with pocket pairs and 2 outs to spike it and then they shove river and so many go broke here because they just can't believe their little set is no good. Hell I had top set on a board once, and a guy chased me down at 1/2 live on 1/2 pot bets heads up as every street for runner runner gutshot.
Ironically, same day I posted this, this piece went up about folding bottom and middle sets:
https://www.pokernews.com/strategy/i...game-32350.htm
Interesting video and read for sure. Not saying it's right esp for my OP post but makes one think about those rare spots when folding a set makes sense.