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Old 10-16-2018, 09:54 PM   #1
TheWoodMan
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Question Did it all have to go in?

Iím a recreational player with some live experience playing 1/2, 9-handed, with $270 in front of me. Have been playing 30-40 minutes with very tight image, only showing 1 hand while slowplaying A-K from the SB, busting the player to my right. In this hand UTG ($190) raises to $7, I am UTG+1 and raise to $27 to isolate with many players behind. UTG has also been squeaky and I immediately put him on a big pair or A-K. Folds around to SB ($195) who calls $26 and BB folds. Flop Q93 rainbow and original raiser donk bets $60. Whatís the best play here? I really think I misplayed this hand and would appreciate feedback. Happy to share how it played out after hearing some thoughts. Thank you all.
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Old 10-16-2018, 09:56 PM   #2
iraisetoomuch
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

What do you have?...

Also, after 45 minutes you dont have a tight image. And no one is "squeaky". That's like 20 hands. People have likely barely noticed that you're there.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:45 PM   #3
TheWoodMan
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

Thanks for the reply. Haha important point there! I had to retype the whole entry after being disconnected and left out an important part. I had A-A. Thanks again.
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Old 10-16-2018, 10:50 PM   #4
iraisetoomuch
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

So there are 3 players to the flop for $27 each and one leads $60? Call the flop. Shove a lot of turn cards.
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Old 10-16-2018, 11:31 PM   #5
TheWoodMan
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

Seems so obvious now. Not what I did of course, I shoved. So if I just call there and SB shoves? Regardless of what the original bettor does I still have to be way behind then right?
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Old 10-17-2018, 12:20 AM   #6
donkatruck
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

So after his bet, pot has $120 and V has $100 behind? You can flat/shove all turns or honestly just shove over his bet.

If you ran into QQ/99, so be it. There's no way you should ever fold here unless the flop is KQJ one suit that you don't have.
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Old 10-17-2018, 12:21 AM   #7
donkatruck
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWoodMan View Post
Seems so obvious now. Not what I did of course, I shoved. So if I just call there and SB shoves? Regardless of what the original bettor does I still have to be way behind then right?
I don't think so. V can have AQ, KK, AA, JT very easily. Most V's if they have QQ are going to c/r or c/c/s.

If you lost, it's just a cooler at these stack levels.
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Old 10-17-2018, 08:15 AM   #8
TheWoodMan
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

As it turns out, the SB has QQ, donk bet to my right has KK. I thought cooler of sorts but can I find a fold with SB shove? Maybe it is all going in with AA,KK,QQ either way but Iím just not sure. If I call the 60, SB shoves, guy to my right calls, I have to be beat there. Maybe over-thinking it here, but agree that I should have called the 60 and not shoved. Donít think the SB continues there without a set. If I only could have had that thought process at the table...really appreciate the feedback.
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Old 10-17-2018, 09:38 AM   #9
Garick
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

You're over thinking it. You need to consider ranges and how bloated the pot is. If you're folding an overpair in a 3-bet pot on a Q-high board with stacks under 100BBs, you're usually making a mistake. As donkatruck said, there are a lot of other combos out there that can do this.

You didn't tell us anything about the Vs, but I'm going to assume a bit loose-passive, as it's 1) the most common player type, and 2) hinted at by PF action.
-UTG's range to open/flat pre and donk flop is likely AQ, 99, QQ+. That's 6 combos that beat you, 18 that you beat, and one chop.
- If you were just to flat and then SB shoved, his range to do that is probably all the available combos of 99, and QQ, a few 33 (doesn't always call pre), a few AQ (doesn't always call pre and doesn't always shove flop), a few KK (often 4-bets pre) ,and half a combo of AA (only one available, and it probably usually 4-bets pre). That's about 8 combos that beat you and 7 that you beat.

So I hear you say, "I'm beat more often than not, I should fold." Nope. Pot is too big. Let's assume that UTG folds to SB's shove. Pot is now $366-ish (depending on rake at your room) and you're looking at calling $108 more. That means that you only have to win 22.8% of the time for that call to be good. You're actually winning 46.7% of the time in the estimate above, so you're making a huge long-term profit by calling, even though you lose more often than you win.

If UTG calls SB's shove, his range is tighter than his donking range, so you're winning less often, but it also makes the pot a lot larger, so it is still probably a call. Let's say he calls only with 99, and QQ+. That's 6 combos you lose to and 6 that you beat with one tie. Your equity goes down to about 18.3%, which is pretty bad, but the pot is now $469 and your call will represent 18.7% of the final pot. That is just barely a fold, but if just one time out of 12 UTG can't fold AQ, that's enough to make this a call with 19.2% equity.

In real life, there are almost always a couple combos of WTF in every LLSNL V's range, so this is really never a fold. Stop beating yourself up about it. It's just a cooler.
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Old 10-17-2018, 09:58 AM   #10
HawkesDave
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

We're not telling you to call the flop, instead of shoving, because we're worried about sets. We're telling you to call the flop to pick up additional value. You can't fold at any point in this hand with an SPR of 2 and holding AA unless you're playing super nits.

With that said, even if you called the $60 and the SB check-shoved, while you absolutely must call with AA, I think you're beat the vast majority of the time here. Not only does UTG have QQ within his range, but SB almost always has 99/QQ when he check-shoves there since he cold called an UTG/UTG+1 3b and was out of position. He's basically always TT+ and AQs+ here (99 is still possible though from some players, and some other players will only call QQ+/AKs here).

You were going to get stacked regardless. Don't lose sleep over it. You could have played the flop a bit more optimally but in the end it really didn't change anything so just move on.

I do think pre is $3-4 on the high side but that's just nitpicking.
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Old 10-17-2018, 11:16 PM   #11
TheWoodMan
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Re: Did it all have to go in?

Again, thank you all for the great analysis . This is my first post here and I really appreciated the replies.
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