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Originally Posted by johnnyBuz
Browni as someone that portends to be a consummate pro your attitude/EQ is pretty -EV. I can’t imagine people willingly dumping you money for the next 5, 10 or 20 years.
You're not the first to say something like this, and I honestly wish I knew what you were talking about. Alas, my EQ is too low to have that self-awareness.
Somehow I get along just fine. Believe it or not the majority of people like me as far as I can tell, so I must be doing something right. I even get invited to home games and have somehow managed to get a wife.
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Originally Posted by Avaritia
This cannot be proven mathematically. I’m not going to sort through your posts to identify something that I know to be incorrect but it is not something that can be proven, as you only have one piece of the data. VPIP actually has nothing to do with stdev. The different outcomes of each VPIP are all that matter. And they are more condensed with lag play. This is what you fail to understand and by judgement of your tone will never understand.
You snipped important parts of my post when you quoted me. I have proven it under certain conditions. If you don't want to look through my posts, Jay S summed up my thoughts exactly.
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Originally Posted by Jay S
...you cannot decrease variance by substituting a certain outcome (e.g. folding) with a distribution over multiple outcomes (calling or raising). It seems like taking tons of small gambles should largely cancel out and result in lower overall variance, but that's simply not how it works. Total variance is the sum of the variances of each individual gamble; you can't reduce it by adding more gambles. (Running it twice decreases variance because you're not adding a second gamble, you're splitting a gamble for X into two gambles for 0.5X.)
That said, preflop is not the whole story, as a few people have pointed out. There can be other aspects of a good LAG's game that decrease variance and explain the empirical results. Betting/raising to steal a pot is a gamble, but so is checking, so is barreling an overpair on a wet board, etc. Estimating the effects of flop & turn decisions on variance is extremely complicated. The decision tree is huge, with many outcomes whose probabilities are subjective and Villain-dependent.
This means that holding the rest of our strategy and villain's strategy fixed, choosing not to fold a breakeven hand pre-flop necessarily increases the variance of our strategy, which in turn leads to a higher probability of loss over any given period of time if we hold win-rate constant.
The relevant differences must be how Lags vs. Tags play post-flop, not pre-flop.
I meant it when I said I don't have much self-awareness, so I'm not sure what is wrong with my tone, other than maybe being a bit egotistical. You could take your ego down a notch, too. Neither one of us knows everything on this subject, and I'm sure we could both learn something from one another.
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You continue to have the false assumption that win rate per hand is some kind of static equity. This is not true, mainly because of non showdown winnings. A lags wr per hand is lower and has less spread from the mean overall.
I'm not sure what you mean by "static equity" in this context.
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Originally Posted by Garick
Actually, you said "I have asked several times for you to support your argument with evidence, yet you have not come up with any." I can see that maybe you meant specifically empirical evidence, as that's what you'd been talking about earlier in the para, and if that's what you meant, I take back some of my annoyance.
I have not posted empirical evidence, I have simply posted evidence of empirical evidence existing. I'm sorry but 1) I don't have access to mpethy's data, 2) mpethy doesn't post anymore, and 3) I doubt he'd share it anyway, since it was confidential data from his clients.
Yes, I did specifically mean empirical evidence. As much as I try to be precise in my wording, I apparently make many more mistakes than I'm aware of.
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I suspect that you could find some of these old discussions if you search, but since they were before the great archiving, I don't know how easy that would be. I *think* they were in the micro full-ring forum, but I'm not sure.
Thanks for pointing me in a direction. I'll look at some point.
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As for a short-rolled newb, obviously all other things are not equal. I suspect that given the other limitations they would likely have, I'd prob recommend a 2/3-stack ABC style as least likely to lead to bustoville. I would definitely recommend against a classic short-stack style (20bbs, very tight, very aggro when VPIPing, AI pre of OTF in most hands played), as I have seen first hand the graphs that those created, even for profitable players, and the ROR would be very high.
If that's the case, I think we're mostly on the same page. Playing with a 20BB stack should have a lower standard deviation than a full-stack, but the edge will be much smaller as well, and I imagine rake is a huge issue at that stack size. I wouldn't challenge the claim that a 20BB stacker will have a higher RoR than a full-stacker.