Quote:
Originally Posted by poke4fun
Let's pretend that we don't know a coin flip is 50%.
Player A flips a coin 10x with 50% heads.
Player B flips a coin 100x with 30% heads.
Player C flips a coin 1000x with 42% heads.
Player D flips a coin 10000x with 41% heads.
Player D must be closest to true EV of a coin flip?
What you and browni are failing to grasp is
non-showdown winnings.
I am going to say it again. Non-showdown winnings.
Finally, a third time. Non-showdown winnings.
That is the entire cusp of the argument.
And it is why lags do have lower variance than tags. They do. Yes I know what variance is. No it is not semantics. Bolded has been proven empirically with database analysis. It is harder to prove formulaically bc it is far more complex than direct hand equity calculations.
In the quoted post above you are talking about one piece of a hand’s winnings, showdown winnings. In the flip of a quarter, it is 50/50. In AA vs 99, it is 80/20. Whatever. That makes up a part of win rate, and a part of variance. But non-showdown winnings are also a part of win rate and also a part of variance. Lags use them quite well, and in doing so they lower their variance overall.
Again, all the snips in the world from statistics articles on Wikipedia cannot challenge this. As I stated in the beginning, it has also been show empirically through actual database research. Many times.
A tag flips the coin and hopes that it lands on his chosen side. A lag punches the opponent in the face and runs away with the quarter.