1/3 $250 effective

Hero should have a very nitty image since I have been pretty card dead.

Played with this guy for 5 hours, his play is pretty confusing because sometime he looks like he is thinking about his opponents and he has had some good moves, but he is way too loose pre and has stationed a good bit as well. However he has only folded vs me, once to a cbet and once to a second barrel OTT.

Hero has AQ in the CO. 3 limps to me, I make it $25, vil calls from the SB and one of the limpers, who just sat down, calls as well.

Flop $75 pot $250 behind.

1053

Checks around to me, I bet $50, V calls, unknown guy folds.

Turn is 2 so pot is $175 and board is
10532

V checks, Hero has PSB behind.

I would 100% shove here for value with an overpair so I'm going to check here with AQ.

It's a very defensible bluff, especially if villain has been paying attention. It sounds like he gets a bit sticky though, and we can check it back and realize our 18-25% equity for free.

If we had a hand like 78dd I like a jam because the naked nut flush draw can't (shouldn't) be calling the jam, but with a hand like we have with showdown value and overcard outs that are good vs a wider range, I think checking is better

Hmmm, gutshot + 2 overs and the only nutted hands are sets. I can get behind a big bluff here, if not for your read that he is stationy. Against a station just take the freebie.

Im not thrilled about cbetting that flop 3 ways though, especially against a station.

I agree the flop is questionable, my thinking was that I was going to cbet the flop and then, if the rando folded, jam non flushing turns. This guy has definitely been paying attention and I saw him fold to a river shove in a huge pot after tanking for 5 minutes muttering about his opponents possible holdings. However he has also chased draws a good bit.

Is it insane to think that he might fold most of his 1 pair hands OTT and call with a lot of his draws?

Should have called the clock in previous hand.

Here, as played, I’d jam now because I’d jam value hands too. But I would have checked flop three ways.

Don’t put a penny in post

Versus this opponent - easy shut down on the flop and I'm checking behind turn too.

I get your logic, but echoing others -- Flop CBet is a spew. Turn shove is defensible w/ our equity + leverage, but Tx almost never folds, & we should rarely be in this situational alignment to begin with, so I still label it spew overall.

I probably leveled myself because he seemed to correctly range his opponent when he tank folded in that huge pot, and I thought I was repping overpairs only.

He snap called with 24 offsuit.

What are you expecting him to fold? If he's a station usually one and done unless you have a big draw and implied odds. The turn is not a scare card at all and he's never folding a T, a lot of his pairs picked up a straight draw like 66, 54, A5, etc. I check back and take my free equity/showdown value unless the turn brings an over card.

I like our preflop raise sizing (after 3 limpers could even go a tad higher but whatever) as it sets us up for mostly a fairly easy stack off postflop if we flop TP.

I think on this flop I'm more for checking back and taking my free card 3ways. If we're betting, I would bet a lot smaller (like $30) as it will typically accomplish the exact same result as $50.

I mean this will work some of the time, and some of the time we're actually ahead against a draw, but I think in general I'd want more equity (we only have overs) or more of a flop card to represent, so I'm not sure it works enough (even with our nit image).

GcluelessNLnoobG

lol at V calling 42o for $25 from the SB.

Flop bet is bad for the reasons already posted, AP, check behind turn, V's range SHOULD be weighted toward PP and Broadways when he cold calls from SB (of course we now know that's not the case).

Flop- I think this is a better spot for a delay cbet instead of a regular cbet. Neither pairs nor draws are folding flop and they’ll usually let you know if they caught a piece of the board by betting into you on the turn.

Turn- Not a good spot for a double barrel so just check back and hope he has a flush draw.

We did pick up the gutshot OTT

Ive been thinking about whether its possible to bet A high for value in spots like this, because I think many vils, even stations, will fold pairs less than Ts and call with straight and flush draws.

I wonder if V pairing his 2 influenced his decision. My gut says he would just call with a naked OESD as well.

If V decided his pair 66-99 was good OTF, the turn sure as heck didn't change his mind.

Spew

I don't like betting this flop at all with your exact hand. Just bloating the pot where there are arent many good turn cards for you and where barreling is going to be extremely difficult especially given SPR. this is an easy check give up imo.

If you do go for it, what hand that peels flop do you think youre going to get to fold on this turn with these short of stacks

I strongly dislike the flop c-bet on this board.

I think Tx is a decent portion if his range that might fold to another barrel here. My main concern is that this villain will still call it off a lot, however against a typical loose preflop but fit or fold post type player I think this turn bluff is OK, although the cbet is still bad.

And this is why I shove here with overpair 100% of the time.

And this is why I am bad.

Even though I'm not in love with it and basically give up on the flop, another part of me doesn't hate it as much as others. In this particular case, you ran into the upper part of his range (pair + unlikely OESD) that ain't going to fold. But in quite a lot of other cases, I believe you get a decent amount of folds from pairs smaller than Tx and even from Tx in some cases (depending on how aware he is of your nit image).

Gdislikesit,butprobablynotasmuchasothersG

Again, if V has 66-99 or Tx and decided to call the flop with a player behind him yet to act (meaning it's less likely that he's just trying to float Hero or see if Hero's full of it), what makes you think he's going to fold on a turn that can't possibly help Hero?

Swoly, don't most opponents fold at this point? They call the flop to see if we're cbetting air / if they improve / if we check the turn, and then when we shove the rest in on the turn they decide we had it after all and fold. Obviously opponent dependent, but me thinks pairs < T fold here more often than they call (and some opponents probably fold a T more often than they call it, image dependent).

Gtherealquestionisdotheyfoldenough,imoG

If V was last to act on the flop, I'd be more inclined to agree with you. But when he cold calls from the SB and then calls the flop with a player yet to act, V is usually playing his own two cards, thinking they are actually best, and not just floating Hero. And if V thinks his hand is best on the flop, it's still best on this turn.

I would need a very solid read that a V folds to a second barrel on a blank before emptying the clip here. If the turn card was anything J-A, then bombs away.