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deepstacked 2/5 river decision deepstacked 2/5 river decision

02-20-2017 , 11:05 AM
hero in MP young kid, up about 1k. Known to be aggressive and have showed a couple big all in bluffs
V in the BB is a solid MAWG, rarely gets out of line and I estimate a small winner in the game. one of the better live players forsure

1500~ effective with V
I open QJcc to 25 over a limp and a shortstack with about 90~ calls. V 3bets to 75 and I call. Shortstack goes all in, and V asks "can I reraise over that?" dealer counts it and he can not, so we both call.

Pot 282
Flop QJ4r one club. He bets 90 I call. I think his hand is faceup as QQ+ MAYBE AQ, so I went to let him barrel as I dont think he will gii for 300bb with an overpair.

Pot 564
Turn Ax
He bets $200 and I call. thoughts on just folding? hoping he just has KK/AK and checks river so we can get to showdown

pot 964
rivers a brick, I think it was an offsuit 7

He bets $300. Call or fold?
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 11:41 AM
You need 19% equity.

So you're basically looking for 2 combos of anything that's not 2p+.

You'll have to figure that out for yourself.


You should really learn to decide vs some of those older Middle Aged players whether you're going to call them down by figuring out if they check back AK hands on turn and value bet river, or if they bet turn with that and check back rivers IP.

If they just barrel, you have to call them down, but if they always check those hands back here, and now they are barreling you have to fold turn.

Vs most, I probably call them once on turn and fold on river. However, it really helps if you believe he has a PP and not a hand like AK.
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 11:51 AM
Raise the flop after his lol small 1/3 PSB. You need to get more value from AK/KK+ hands, maybe AQ. You're only behind two combos on the flop.

The turn is pretty ****ty because AQ/AA pull ahead and KK slowdown. You need to call the river if you called the turn thinking he has AK.
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 11:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Nice_Guy_Eddie
Raise the flop after his lol small 1/3 PSB. You need to get more value from AK/KK+ hands, maybe AQ. You're only behind two combos on the flop.

The turn is pretty ****ty because AQ/AA pull ahead and KK slowdown. You need to call the river if you called the turn thinking he has AK.
I'm fine with fold river, and call turn vs lesser known villains that appear to be playing more straightforward.

Simply because, the picture will be painted eventually and we'll find out exactly how we should be treating our opponent. It can quickly become a huge mistake to call and a huge mistake to fold. I don't see enough 3 barrels out of unknowns so I'd be more tempted to fold.

However, in the long run, you need to decide how to play turn. I'm also raising flop simply because I think we can stack his KK/AA here a lot and/or juice a ton of value.

They are definitely not folding to a raise.
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 12:09 PM
if I raise flop I just fold out AK which makes sense with the 1/3 pot size, and AA/KK will find a fold on turn or river if unimproved. This player is not the type to stack off 300bb with 1p, but hes more likely too if hes pot commited so call/raise/jam or call/call/jam is the best line to get value knowing his hand is AA/KK , if I raised itd be more to protect my equity in the pot imo.

Thinking abt this hand after the fact, Im wondering if turning my hand into a bluff and shoving the river is a good play. I get snapped by AA but Im at the bottom of my range block jj/qq and fold out AK/AQ/KK
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 12:22 PM
AK always leads this flop with two overs and gut shot; AK continues on the turn.
KK always leads this flop. KK doesn't bet both turn and river.
AQ probably doesn't make is 75 pre flop but, given that you've shown a couple all in bluffs (and, WHY, just WHY? leave the ego at home), it's possible he thinks you're FOS and reraised pre flop light.
Also, given that he wanted to re-pop the short stack ship, AA is pretty solidly in his range.

Pre flop: raising QJ in position is fun. Calling the re-raise and short stack shove is questionable but since the action can't be re-opened, it's not the worst.

Flop: this is among the best possible flops for your hand. If he has QQ or JJ, cooler. If he has anything else, you got lucky and out flopped him. Raise flop. Any A, K or T is potentially terrible for you, and you're likely to get paid off by AA and KK, which, given that he's a "solid MAWG who rarely gets out of line" are two of his more likely holdings. If he folds AA or KK here, fine. Take the pot.

Turn: The only hand you beat now is AK.
River: The only hand you beat now is AK. Maybe he's value betting AK, but given the bluffs you've shown before, wouldn't he consider checking AK and calling any bet, looking to snap off a bluff? It doesn't make a lot of sense for V to bet KK on the river, after you called the flop and turn bets.
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 07:38 PM
Obviously the nut bad turn card for us. Against a Villain who rarely gets out of line, I don't think we can call off the triple barrel here. We only beat KK that he strangely turns into a bluff (this feels very unlikely, it's a clear check for him), and even AK should check this river.

Feeling very likely he turned a set or top two. It sucks but this is a fold.

I agree with others that flop is a clear raise, puts AQ, AA, or KK in a really tough spot OOP.
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 07:45 PM
I think you not only need to fold now but you shoulda folded after his 3bet
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 10:33 PM
FOLD PRE. You're OOP and mostly shortstack is jamming. You're putting in 18bb in with Q high. "But oh we're deep and we have a pretty hand" is not a reason to call OOP. You aren't drawing to the nuts for your FD, you're OOP, shortstack can jam, you can get bluffed off the best hand OOP, etc.

Flop totally standard. Turn is close, but a call if he ever cbets AK otf. River is just an annoying x/f.

Most of the difficult situations players face and mistakes players make a lot result from preflop. There is absolutely no good reason to call pre here
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote
02-20-2017 , 11:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Minatorr
FOLD PRE. You're OOP and mostly shortstack is jamming. You're putting in 18bb in with Q high. "But oh we're deep and we have a pretty hand" is not a reason to call OOP. You aren't drawing to the nuts for your FD, you're OOP, shortstack can jam, you can get bluffed off the best hand OOP, etc.

Flop totally standard. Turn is close, but a call if he ever cbets AK otf. River is just an annoying x/f.

Most of the difficult situations players face and mistakes players make a lot result from preflop. There is absolutely no good reason to call pre here

Exactly this . Extremely standard open with this hand but you can't peel the 3bet. Better off peelimg 87ss than QJ imo but in this specific situation with the shorty in I'm definitley just folding all non premiums to his 3bet
deepstacked 2/5 river decision Quote

      
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