1/3 game, 1k ish eff stacks

Hero UTG

KhKc Raise to $15 (could i size up here? stnrd size = 15)

mp player calls , btn calls

Qs5s4h

I c-bet 27$ mp , btn calls

3d

I bet $55 , mp raise to $185 , btn folds i call

6h

I check , mp bets $230 i call

I think that he can probably be raising the turn both with his value hands, but also with a lot of bluffs, so I don't think I can fold KK to this turn raise even though the sizing is pretty healthy. I guess his value is all sets, 76, 62 combos which isn't that many hands.

When the flush misses on the river and the 6 reduces the number of 76/66/62 (is this logic correct?? ) hands that would have raised the turn and also puts 4 to a straight out there I think that he could definitely be going for it with his bricked draws or even some purer bluffs in this spot...

In the moment I wasn't sure what 7s/2s he would have in this spot, but looking back on it there are two Nfd hands that would have rivered straights, and posibbly many more flush draw combinations.. I was thinking he would likely check back his 2p / sets on this river, but I also couldn't have too many straights in my range. I'm getting a pretty good price to call the river and don't block any draws, (about 3:1), but looking back I think I should have just folded river for this many BBs, i mean his pf flat range basically could equal any cards and idk how likely 1/3 players are to make big river bluffs like this.

how should i have played this hand ?

What's your image? What are the competency levels / tendencies of your opponents in this hand?

If you're playing tight / nitty, you look to have pretty much exactly what you have. That's not a good thing playing OOP deep if you're opponents aren't completely clueless.

As played, if we're betting the turn (and it's very questionable whether we should betting the first 3 streets like this against multiple players unless our opponents are completely clueless ABC calling station fish), then I fold to the raise. Our hand looks face up and dude still has another guy behind him to react.

Similar for river.

GcluelessNLnoobG

Baluga theorem, fold turn

I have outs against 2p and am ahead of even the best combo draws ... you'd really fold kings here? so everytime villian raises turn he has a completely nutted hand lmao?

There are quite a lot of villains that only raise the turn against obvious overpairs when they can beat that overpair, especially in multiway pots.

But you haven't told us anything about this villain, or anything about your image either.

Ggarbagein,garbageout,imoG

Fold turn, no question. Pre, I would go $20; standard doesn't matter - we want an amount that will get us heads up post flop. I would go $40 on the flop. Sorry, that was way out of order.

Highly doubt there's any difference in number of callers we get with $15 vs $20 when we're massively deep and opponents will have position on us.

Gno?G

Most villains, yes.

If it's the rare villain who could be bluffing with some sort of combo draw, that river just got them there a massive amount of the time, so fold river.

Readless I'd just fold turn, why pile in money oop when you are beat so often? If you have some sort of reads you should tell us.

Yes. A low limit player raising the turn has 1 pair beat 95% of the time.
Plus you have to consider the river. You are oop. Are there any rivers you’re folding to?
I’m not getting 330bbs in with 1 pair. Unless my opponent is brain dead and eating from a straw, I’m folding the turn

Alright yea, I hear that...

Say the turn was the blankest card u can think of, (say idk, 9c) ur still folding to a raise?

That’s tougher. Prob not if it’s a smallish raise.

But on this turn where he can have loads of 2p, and 76, and A2 (two hands live opponents love all 16 combos of), and all of the sets because a lot of live players don’t 3! QQ preflop, we have an easy bet fold. Against tougher opposition we could check call this turn card. But at low stakes, bet fold is the play.


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Yeah but surely you can call down wetish boards on the turn with overpairs at some SPR right? I mean say I had only $130 more behind when he raises OTT? Like where would u reccomend drawing the line

Doesn't always folding to turn raises make us pretty exploitable . ?

First of all, we shouldn't be sizing up just because we are at the top of our range, since it would heavily define our range, which is pretty disasterous this deep and OOP.

Secondly, you don't want to raise the top of your range to get folds, you raise to get value.

I'm pretty sure I've had this exact same discussion with you like 6 times before.

GdejavuG

We can probably call it off if the jam is for under pot. Sometimes they’ll just have Qx or 65 and decide that they just wanna pile it in. But I’m not calling down against a big turn raise, or a turn raise and significant river bet.

W/R/T exploitation:
1) we are already making an exploitative decision. This turn card clearly favors our opponent. He has more straights, more sets, and more two pairs in his range. Besides like top set, our range is capped at one pair. We should be checking here, a lot. By betting Kings, we’re trying to exploit their call frequencies.
2) what’s our turn value range like? Remember he’s raising 185 to win like 155 after rake. So we already don’t need to call often, as our calls against his range stand to have poor equity.

So now we have to think removal. What could he be bluffing with? Probably hands with the As in it, and hands like 65. So when we decide what we want to continue, it should be stuff that removes value combos, but doesn’t block bluffs. AQcc is a better continue than KK, from a theoretical perspective.

But really, almost no one is willing to risk a big bet like this on a bluff at 1/3. Folding is just better in the long run.


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Yes, folding turn here is exploitable. But ask yourself the question, is villain capable of exploiting you? And how often does he do it? If the answers are 'no' and 'not often', then it's a clear fold, right?

I obviously don't play in your games, but in my games people just don't exploit me enough to consider calling in this spot.

Yea I guess from my point of view if I was in his spot with a hand like As6s and figured my range was pretty capped opening UTG (also idk xctly how capped my range is here given there wasn't much 3betting and how deep the stacks are, i'd honestly open 22-88 and some 7/6 8/9 9/10s hands utg idgaf if it's profitable llol as well as stronger hands here), I'd think maybe I could take it down ott and if not still have rly good equity drawing to the nuts on the river, obv a player left behind changes this a bit...

Like GTO play would be raising some strong draws as well as other strong value hands correct ??

It's not that he will have it every time, but the point is that most LLSNL villains are way unbalanced with their turn raises. We can exploit that unbalance by folding hands that don't have the equity to continue against their raising range, and 1-pair is usually in that camp.

He could easily have 55/44 as well. The thing is even if you have outs against 2 pair and ahead of combo draws, you don't know what cards are bad for you and what you have to fade. If villain is even remotely competent he is going to barrel any card that is scary to 1-pair, whether he actually has it or not, and on this board a lot of rivers will be scary. He's got you in a rough spot, and since it's 1/3, you can weight his raise more towards value (sets, straights, 2-pair) and just fold.

Yea my actual approach is slightly more nuanced but if I was coaching someone at 1/3 I would tell them to just fold one pair no draw on the turn every single time they get raised by an unknown V. The EV of that strategy wouldn’t be too much worse from what I would actually do.

think you should be betting atleast 70+ ott. Would prob call turn rr xf river.

My response was to sixseveonoff's response that "we should make it $20 to get it HU" (in my opinion our raise size makes *zero* difference in this regards, so long as it falls within limits that will be considered "reasonable"). It was also in response to how face up OP has played his hand.

I completely agree that defining our range here this deep and OOP (especially against non-morans) is disastrous, and for these reasons I would actually prefer a limp (although I have a mega nit image to deal with; if OP has a laggy image then by all means make a "standard" smallish raise). Limping certainly passes up on preflop value (*if* it limps around), but I'm not really worried about that being this deep and OOP; I'll have lots of streets to make value postflop if a I see fit (meanwhile with a disguised hand instead of a face up one).

GIdon'tthinkwe'redisagreeingasmuchasyouthinkweareG

yea u know what after thinking about ur right.. i def need to stop getting so attached to big pairs :/

Thinking about a similair hand where opp check called flop in a pot where i just opened, then check raised turn to 5x on a board were i also had an overpair ( there was no flush draws however) but it was jacks and i just kinda felt i was way behind even the bottom of his 5x check raise turn range and just folded rather than possibly calling off my stack on the river drawing dead... and i folded them face up and he showed me the turnd nut straight

honestly looking back folding turn was the only play in this 1/3 game especially this deep where he could easily be jamming rivers for a lot more than what his bet was, and especially vs this what i percieved to be pretty nitty player , i guess im fine if villian sometimes does this with his strong draws and plans to bomb rivers , i'd rather have the lower variance 1 - 0 - 0