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Old 12-14-2020, 06:29 PM   #1
sabloid
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Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

This is a home game with regulars. They are mostly passive players who call loose, they don't have 3b bluffs and some of them even limp call with broadway hands in EP.


MP: 448.32 BB
Hero (MP+1): 361.1 BB
MP+2: 294.68 BB
CO: 113.02 BB
BTN: 434.4 BB
SB: 335.54 BB
BB: 130.3 BB
UTG: 122.86 BB
UTG+1: 400.7 BB

SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has A Q

fold, UTG+1 calls 1 BB, fold, Hero raises to 4.5 BB, MP+2 calls 4.5 BB, fold, BTN calls 4.5 BB, fold, BB calls 3.5 BB, UTG+1 calls 3.5 BB

Flop: (23 BB, 5 players) 5 6 4
BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP+2 checks, BTN bets 11 BB, BB raises to 33.5 BB, fold, Hero calls 33.5 BB, MP+2 raises to 116 BB, fold, BB raises to 125.8 BB, Hero ?

With such a wet board multi-way, I opted for a check. I didn't expect the 2-bet. The 2-bet from the BB, a nitty player, definitely smacks of sets or better. I think with such deep stacks I wasn't sure if I should stack off here. So I just called.

With a 3-bet from MP+2 and a call, I think I have no option but to shove here, right? Is this ever a fold? I can only put both players on sets or better. I doubt if any have the flush draw especially when I have the nut flush draw. MP+2 is a loose, passive player. I don't think there are any bluffs here.


a) Should I have shove to BB 2-bet to price out any other players?

b) Should I call the 3-bet or shove or fold?

Last edited by sabloid; 12-14-2020 at 06:48 PM.
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Old 12-14-2020, 11:10 PM   #2
Petrucci
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

I think you played it fine, flop check is fine. 350 BB deep my first thought isnt that i want to stackoff here on this flop.

With this much action i might lean towards a puke fold on the flop to be honest with you. Especially with described lineup of passive players. When these guys start piling in money on this flop multiway and we can easily put them on nutted ranges we exploit them by getting away from second best hands and thus not giving them action.
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Old 12-15-2020, 12:46 AM   #3
hitchens97
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

I suspect the math is close, but favors a call if we range both villains with sets and high end of straights.

Nasty high variance place, but I think we have to call it off.

Also note two of your diamond outs are not clean.
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Old 12-15-2020, 01:48 AM   #4
browni3141
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

You only need 22.4% equity. That's not too far from what you need to see one card, assuming MP+2 is usually going to jam the turn. However sometimes he will check letting you realize your equity, and he may have a hard time folding in a very large pot when you hit, even though it's a bit obvious what you have.

It wouldn't make sense to 3-bet the BB before. You know you need to hit your hand to win against him anyway because he isn't folding any hand in the range you gave him, so you don't want to drive others out of the pot. It wouldn't make sense to jam now either for the same reason that you need to hit to win the main pot. There's no reason to GII as a dog. MP+2 is almost never folding and if he does the only thing you win is seeing both cards for the flop price.

On the turn, donk jam a diamond that doesn't pair the board, check/call on a turn 7 or 8 (you have additional chop outs), check/fold otherwise.
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Old 12-15-2020, 12:54 PM   #5
jdr0317
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

You guys, don’t underestimate that stacks are hugely different between villains here. If they were around the same, we might have a high variance call off. But in this case, it’s hugely different.

Like maybe we get the “correct odds” to see the turn. But then the pot is like 411 bb. OP would have 230 bb left. On a non-diamond, villain can shove it in and get OP to fold all of his equity. Plus it seems unlikely that all of his flush cards will be clean


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Old 12-15-2020, 02:25 PM   #6
sabloid
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

Yeah. I agree with the earlier posters about getting the right odds. But with the stacks in play, it really made me question if I should ever be calling the flop.
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Old 12-15-2020, 03:12 PM   #7
Javanewt
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

It's a shove or fold here for me. I'm never calling to fold on a blank turn. It's a bit of a gambling spot. How passive is MP? Is he ever folding to a shove?
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Old 12-15-2020, 03:22 PM   #8
sabloid
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

MP+2 is somewhat passive but you rarely see her 3-bet. So for me she is pretty much committed and I see no fold equity to a shove.
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Old 12-15-2020, 03:48 PM   #9
Javanewt
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by sabloid View Post
MP+2 is somewhat passive but you rarely see her 3-bet. So for me she is pretty much committed and I see no fold equity to a shove.
Then I guess follow the math, but since they could easily have some of our outs, I just let it go vs these player types. If you are 100% getting paid on a diamond turn (non-pairing, of course), then maybe a call is OK if the math say so.
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Old 12-15-2020, 04:40 PM   #10
sabloid
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

The math seems close. Maybe just fold because they are bad players and I can find better spots with better EV?
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Old 12-15-2020, 05:29 PM   #11
browni3141
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317 View Post
You guys, don’t underestimate that stacks are hugely different between villains here. If they were around the same, we might have a high variance call off. But in this case, it’s hugely different.

Like maybe we get the “correct odds” to see the turn. But then the pot is like 411 bb. OP would have 230 bb left. On a non-diamond, villain can shove it in and get OP to fold all of his equity. Plus it seems unlikely that all of his flush cards will be clean


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If we were getting correct odds to see the turn nothing else matters. It doesn’t matter that we have to fold our equity because we should only be considering our equity from seeing one card as a baseline. We’re not getting direct odds unless they both have straights, so since there’s a decent chance one has a set, other factors need to be in our favor.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Javanewt View Post
It's a shove or fold here for me. I'm never calling to fold on a blank turn. It's a bit of a gambling spot. How passive is MP? Is he ever folding to a shove?
Well you should fold a blank turn because you wouldn’t be getting the odds. There is very little benefit from shoving. The fact that we can fold some turns is actually a reason to call over jam because we can avoid putting money in bad more often. Sometimes we get lucky with a free river as well if a scare card comes and MP gets MUBs.

When drawing, calling is almost always mathematically superior to raising without fold equity. It’s very easy to navigate future streets and play them almost perfectly.
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Old 12-15-2020, 06:27 PM   #12
Javanewt
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

Quote:
Originally Posted by browni3141 View Post
Well you should fold a blank turn because you wouldn’t be getting the odds. There is very little benefit from shoving. The fact that we can fold some turns is actually a reason to call over jam because we can avoid putting money in bad more often. Sometimes we get lucky with a free river as well if a scare card comes and MP gets MUBs.

When drawing, calling is almost always mathematically superior to raising without fold equity. It’s very easy to navigate future streets and play them almost perfectly.
The fold equity is why I posted my second post. Knowing MP is never folding, unless we are getting paid on a diamond turn, I don't see the point of flatting, so I just fold. I can't imagine any case, except a non-4 diamond, that MP is giving a free river unless she is terrible. If she is that passive (bad), by all means flat the flop, but it's still close.
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Old 12-15-2020, 08:20 PM   #13
weirdmonkey
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

I'd size up our iso if we're getting this many callers. Calling the BB 3bet on the flop seems close with two players still to act behind us. Sets have good equity to boat up. And we're probably not getting much value from straights/sets when the diamond hits. I'd probably fold there.
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Old 12-17-2020, 02:21 PM   #14
sabloid
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Re: Deep stacks with nut flush draw on the flop

Result: I shoved. MP+2 calls. She shows 55 for a set and BB shows T3dd. The set of fives held.
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