1,2 live, effective stack is 700, hero has won a couple big hands with sets v donks and has been playing very tight. Villain has also had a couple big hands against donks. Villain is competent, playing looser than Hero preflop and willing to mix it up postflop (villain opening lots of connectors everywhere). Hero has generally been fit or fold postflop and only playing pots in position. This is the first time I've played with this villain, villain claims to be a tourist from California.

Villain opens for 6 UTG, Hero calls with AJo from the CO, SB calls, BB calls.

Flop comes AcKcJd. SB checks, BB checks, Villain bets 15, Hero raises to 45.

I raise here because I think the fish in the blinds will cold call with any Ace, club draw or pair+gutshot. I think that each villain is equally likely to have AK or KJ, but I expect only the main villain (UTG) to have JJ+ because there wasn't a 3bet preflop.

SB folds, BB folds, Villain raises to 120.

Early in the session I saw villain make a large raise with the nut flush draw on the flop, but effective stacks were only $200 in that hand. Villain could again have a big draw: QcJc, JcTc, QcQx, TcTx. Villain could have a value hand: AA, KK, JJ, AK, AJ, KJ, QT. And maybe sometimes villain has a not great flush draw: 8c7c, 7c6c, etc.

I think that villain is competent enough to know that 3betting with AJ or KJ against someone playing as tight as Hero is turning the hand into a bluff. The same could probably be said of AK. For this reason I mostly expect Villain to have AA,KK,JJ,QT or one of the big draws. Against the value hands I have 15% equity and the draws (QcJc, JcTc, QcQx, TcTx) give me 30% equity.

I also expect villain to think that I would 3bet JJ+ and probably AK, this makes my range quite narrow: AJ,AQ,KJ,QTs,draws. Villain knows that QTs is the only monster I could have, Villain also knows that 3betting with less than AK is a bluff. If villain has QT does he really expect Hero to call with worse than top two? The same could be said if Villain has AA,KK,JJ. It seems like villain should know that Hero won't want to call such a large bet with his weaker range. Do we think villain is semibluffing/bluffing? Does villain think that hero can laydown AJ/KJ? Does villain think that hero will GII with a big draw? How is Villain trying to extract value from Hero? What would you do?

Hello op,

First thought when I read your post is to raise more pre-flop if we are going to play this hand. This will give us a better idea how much villain likes their hand plus the added bonus that we are in position.

I think as played, I would fold this and find other spot.

What has V's standard open been? $6 here makes me weight it closer to the bottom end of your range estimate (more sc/drawy) than the top end (AA/KK). Would he open AA/KK/AK for $6?

Sometimes he opened to 6/8/10 and sometimes he would just open limp, but he was mixing it up quite a bit.

I thought about this, but I didn't have a very good read on how his preflop sizing related to his hand strength.

Lol wtf raising flop to fold. Have a plan/actually think before clicking btns mega deep

Wow, tough spot. This is a raise-or-fold spot. I think I fold.

I'd discount AA, KK, AK, and JJ from villain's range, unless there are some very specific preflop dynamics at play. He's only raising to 6 preflop with those hands if he thinks there's a strong likelihood that he'll be three-bet. Otherwise, he's putting in a tiny pot-builder raise at a table full of complete donks. Very unlikely.

So I think his range is slanted heavily towards QT and combo draws. You're ahead of the combo draws, you're drawing to four outs against QT.

But given how deep you are, the problem here is that villain has announced with this reraise that he wants to play for stacks. If you raise here, it's going to have to be a raise to ~300-350. He can then fold his weaker draws, and jam with QT and his better draws. If you call here, you have to expect he'll bet $250-300 on the turn and the rest on the river. So AJ becomes a bluff catcher -- one which probably has to fold if any scare card hits on either street.

Basically, villain just made a baller move. Even if he has KJ, are we really willing to call two more streets in order to bluff-catch? Lacking conspicuous reads, I quietly fold and save myself the brutal decisions on later streets.

And at 1/2, I think he proudly flashes q10 more often than not.

Wow, tough spot. This is a raise-or-fold spot. I think I fold.

I'd discount AA, KK, AK, and JJ from villain's range, unless there are some very specific preflop dynamics at play. He's only raising to 6 preflop with those hands if he thinks there's a strong likelihood that he'll be three-bet. Otherwise, he's putting in a tiny pot-builder raise at a table full of complete donks. Very unlikely.

So I think his range is slanted heavily towards QT and combo draws. You're ahead of the combo draws, you're drawing to four outs against QT.

But given how deep you are, the problem here is that villain has announced with this reraise that he wants to play for stacks. If you raise here, it's going to have to be a raise to ~300-350. He can then fold his weaker draws, and jam with QT and his better draws. If you call here, you have to expect he'll bet $250-300 on the turn and the rest on the river. So AJ becomes a bluff catcher -- one which probably has to fold if any scare card hits on either street.

Basically, villain just made a baller move. Even if he has KJ, are we really willing to call two more streets in order to bluff-catch? Lacking conspicuous reads, I quietly fold and save myself the brutal decisions on later streets.

And at 1/2, I think he proudly flashes q10 more often than not.

I did have a plan, get value from the donks in the blinds when they have an ace, pair+gutshots and draws. Get value from competent villain if he passively plays KJ or AQ or a club draw.

I think it's reasonable to expect that villain will be cbetting here pretty wide, so it's not like I have to fold to a 3bet here a lot or something.

I folded. But knowing that villain knows that hero is going to be in a tough spot with most of his range after the 3bet, why does it make sense for villain to 3bet QT here?

I think the point is if you don't fold to a 3 bet, are you ready to play for your stack?

If you call here, do you call turn/river? On blank turn/river? On scary turn/river? If you 4 bet flop do you call a shove?

Too many unknowns for me to want to stack off so deep.

At the time I told myself I would fold to a 3bet because I expected villain to only 3bet AK+ and big draws. But now it just seems so obvious that I would think that, it makes me question whether I made the right decision.

I think folding is correct. But I'm not sure why you're putting so much stock in V being a high level thinker with such a short history.

You are probably leveling yourself since its 1/2

id play my big hand fast vs a tight player otf
I think your calling range in the CO should be considered.
Can he put you on a hand that can fold on this flop calling from CO?
Can he see you not wanting to gii here?
"Villain is competent... Does villain think hero will gii w big draw?" No
Does villain think hero can get squirmy in big pots?

Play with stove, or at least count combos. Putting villain on a range can only get you so far if you're not doing the work to see how you're doing against that range.

Options are between folding or flatting. We need to wait for our equity to go up on a non-broadway / non-club before we start shoveling money in, and we're not making a ton more from worse unless we give him more chances to bluff anyway.