Quote:
Originally Posted by FitzyII
Don't you think he is going to call with AK, and sometimes with AQ and AJ in this spot? I certainly think he will check/call those hands.
At 1/2nl and normal 2/5nl yeah, those hands would make a crying call in this spot with AK/AQ.
But in uncapped 2/5nl games your villains are usually going to be at the same skill level as 5/10nl players. So your villains are going to be competent.
And competent TAGs know what a value bet is and they know that when you raise turn and value bet river its never a bluff (especially when the Backdoor flush draw gets there). And if its never a bluff then you have a value hand that wants a call from AK/AQ.
So a competent TAG is just never going to pay off a value bet here which leaves two options for them: fold or shove.
In these games, your villains aren't going to pay off value bets in these sorts of spots. They are shoving or folding, almost never calling. Thus, if you bet river in these spots you better be betting to induce a shove or to illicit folds.
Now, if the backdoor flush DIDN'T hit then your value bet on river is fine, since busted FD's can be in your range and you can be going for a value bet bluff. But when that backdoor flush does hit, what in the hell can you have that AK/AQ beats???
see my point???
