Did you calculate pot odds and ranges? Because calling with A10cc/K10cc, 109cc is not +EV vs a 450bb shove. Yeah people might call with them, but they shouldn't in terms of EV. And I am sure 99% of sane players are not 3-betting this flop vs a maniac, a reraise, AND THEN calling a 450bb ($1000) shove to be way behind or flpping.

Flatting Drunky's 4-bet helps Player 2 play his draws correctly, and it doesn't lead him to misplay any of his hands.

"Solid/nitty older guy" "Playing TAGish ABC" who doesn't play a lot of hands (from OP description). So you think a player with such description 3-bets this flop with 4 A10cc/4 109cc/4 K10cc instead of calling when:

1) maniac is pounding this flop

2) we raise OTB and have a strong range

I am pretty certain he raises 0-1.5 combos of the 12 combos of bluffs he has, so when he raises here I expect him to have way more made hands (66/JJ/QQ/QJs). So his drawing rane is just really insignificant.

Imo he is just never 3-bet bluffing this flop, so i give him 0 bluffs. Even 1.5 combos is super generous. Not to mention, if he is "nitty," he is not calling K10cc and probably not all combos of 109cc from the SB vs UTG open and CO cold-call.

You keep falling back to this position that Hero must have a set when he moves in. And you keep calling it a protected pot when in fact it's probably a splashed pot.

There is absolutely no chance ever that Player 2 is folding T 9 in this spot.

I'm not sure that folding top two is a leak. But I don't think you should be so sure it isn't.

Moving in with anything but a set is spew. Calculate QJs's or your crazy AKcc 5-bet bluff shove's equity vs a SB stackoff 450bb range of


3 66
1 JJ
1 QQ
2 QJs
0-1.5 combos of combo draws

And yes, the pot is protected because the maniac is already all-in. We generate no positive EV when we shove with K high or A high because we need to win at showdown against maniac. So the correct play would be to call with a combo draw OTB.

Do you even know what a protected pot is?

You are giving him WAY too many combo draws in his flop 3-betting range. I've already explained the logic behind why he has almost ZERO semi-bluffs in his flop 3-betting range.

Just because he has 12 possible combos of combo draws OTF does not mean:

1) He (an old man TAGish ABC) is 3-betting them vs a bet & reraise at anywhere high frequency

2) Calls all of them 100% frequency preflop vs UTG open

2) He does #1/#2 AND calls off $1000 with FFS 10 high flipping for over $1000.

You have taken a position and you refuse to abandon it. There is no sense in simply repeating that position.

The fact is that the action in this hand does not require Player 2 to have a set and it does not require Hero to have a set.

If Player 2 will fold every made hand lower than a set, then Hero can move in profitably with 6 7

Lmfao your logic is just so bad. I would gladly play at a table with you 500bb deep effective. To even be thinking about 5-bet bluff shoving this flop with 7 high is just absolutely terrible 450bb deep.

What's the highest limit you've won at? Can you even beat 1/2 or 1/3? You have zero to little understanding of range analysis, range construction, +EV and -EV plays baswd on range vs range, pot odds and equity, balance, GTO, etc.

Literally 50-66% of V2's range OTF ARE sets. So bluffing here is just suicide and totally -EV

Um, ok. You don't even know 6 7 isn't a 7 high.

Pfunk and OP thought it was fine. You're wrong.

Yeah I misread the board. Dont know why you are even playing 7 high preflop anyway.

You seriously think you can make money playing 7 high vs an UTG open maniac? 76s is just a fold preflop against most players. "But oh we are deeeep and we haz two soooooted connectors" does not mean a call is +EV against a maniac that barrels postflop. Your fundamentals are very very lacking.

My bad. Thought you directed it at me, and didnt notice Pfunk wanted to fold comment.

I come across spots like these all the time, minus the drunk guy (I also tend to end-up losing them vs massive nits).

I think its really gross, but I probably still get it in (I also read the spoiler). He definitely has JJ, I just can't put him on QQ that much when he flats the SB after a cold-caller. He probably has all QJo combos. You're not THAT deep (1200 when the PFR was 20, so it plays like a 2/5 220BB deep. You made it pretty small, and the guy made it pretty small too (maybe a hand like AQ, who knows its live poker.)

Whenever its close, I think as a rule of thumb I prefer just going with it because of all the spaz you see in Live Poker all the time. UL

Honestly, it's not that close.

Straight forward shove. I can understand some hesitation against two nits and the flop was K-9-6 rainbow. The presence of the maniac makes this hand easy. You're only behind 6 QQ/JJ combos, slightly ahead of about 5 combo draws, and well ahead of 12-21 combos of KK+/QJ.

76 suited ranks at roughly the 56th percentile. Against players who flat a raise from the blinds and then fold if they don't flop trips or better, it is probably profitable to VPIP 70% from late position.

grunch:

Shoving.
There are 9 combos of QJ (plus spaz) and only 6 of QQ/JJ.

Just lol. Do you have graphs or filters to prove any of this? Or stats/winrates to backup this claim over a large sample of hands? I've logged around half a million, and I can say in 99% of situations cold calling 76s is hugely -EV.

Yeah, I'm pretty much done. You must think you can outplay everyone with 7 high, and that you're a genius at poker.

Giving an old guy nitty/TAG whose stack is on lockdown mode all 12 combos of QJo is ambitious/delusional. His QJ is limited to 4 QJs.

The problem with this hand is the read in the OP is steering us in the direction that V2 is nutted because he's old/TAGgy/nitty and has his stack on lockdown. Versus an UTG raise, even a "drunk", I would never expect this guy to 3! JJ. QQ he probably does with the caller in between.


It's just hard to give him an accurate range because this player type generally doesn't semi-bluff, and if he is 3! QQ pre than he is also 3! AA/KK so we can't say he is over valuing those hands.

In game I probably just flat IP to keep whatever spazz he has in there.

^^^ Yep.

There's nothing even remotely rational about this comment. ^

You flat, he peels, a club comes off and he leads?

Plus he said" it seems like his stack is on lockdown mode", not his pre-flop calling.

Plus he doesn't have 12 combos of QJo, he has 6 and he has 3 QJs.

9 combos. Nothing delusional about it. I think the delusional factor is being mubsy in this spot.


The logical thing is to actually reduce his PP combos because no 3-bet. He flatted pre-flop. Come on man.

Even if you wanted to give him all his PP combos, he's still behind to the QJ range.

I highly doubt a 1/2 player folds QJo in the SB. A lot of nits still call pre-flop to hit gin or fold.

Percentages of set over set is sooo low, and with the price you are giving, insta-call


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Word. Since reading the reveal, it seems to me the moral of this story is knowing how and why we become weak-tight and how and why we level ourselves. Why do we generate losing narratives?

I announce " I am All in folks"
if player 2 has a set that didnt 3b pre ggwp to him reloading
worried 0 about drunky